THREE  STORIES.. ONE THEME...

A few things about the actions of Iran in the past week have me more convinced than ever they simply don't have a solution for the crisis in Syria.

As I have said several time in the past, Iran could settle for a disorganized Syria, a Technocratic Syria but never a Sunni Syria.

For months now they have worked to find some level of "middle ground", but with no results and all the time the Sunni lead factions in Syria have grown stronger.

Iran has tried disruption by getting one group to over react to the other and still they have not slowed the pace of the Sunni wave.

The more the rebels advance, the more the Iranians continue to panic.

Two weeks ago, the panic reached the level of Iran finally threatening those they know are supporting the rebels.

The bad news is, that didn't work ether!!!

The result of that was the King of Saudi inviting Ahmadinejad to an " Muslim Summit"!!! Notice the King framed it as a " Muslim Summit" and not an Arab Summit?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/201285112432709886.html

So, nothing, absolutely nothing is working for Iran and when  nothing is working for a country like Iran, what's the reaction....???? Yep.. more threats.

The stories of Iranian leadership holding emergency meetings in Damascus and Beirut are just further indications of Iran's nearly panicked path of politics.

http://www.debka.com/article/22250/Jalili-in-Damascus-underscores-Iran%E2%80%99s-commitment-to-Assad

http://www.debka.com/article/22248/High-Iranian-official-in-Beirut-for-urgent-talks-with-Hizballah-on-Syria-Israel-

Iran is now in a all out race.

It must have some plan ready before the fall of Aleppo; as a matter of economics and strategic value, Aleppo has already fallen!

I would be willing to be the majority of the conversations between Iran and Syia is with the elite backers of Assad and is a simple matter of mapping some type of survival plan.

Iran's problem is they know this process is too little and too late.

The backers of Assad have cut their deals and they are not with Iran.

So what does this all mean?

I look for Iran to move quickly to protect it's last vital proxy... Hezbollah.

Can they count on Hezbollah to allow themselves to be attacked in Lebanon for some future horrific terrorist event on Israeli citizens?

I don't know; but probably yes.

The problem Iran now has is Israel is not going to fall for this game.

If Hezbollah murders innocent Israeli citizens on a large scale the attacks will not go to Lebanon... they will fall on Iran..

I wonder if Iran understands this?

If they do, then their plan to insure Israel attacks Arabs first is gone...

Yes.. Iran is in deep ....deep.. .trouble.

They have one lifeline left.... the Tsar!!!!

But like any good Crime Boss.. the Tsar will look at Iran and say, " so.. what's in it for me"?????

THE REAL QUESTION IS WHY?

Ok, so the report is released that states Iran's support to Terrorism is the highest it's been in over ten years?

The so called "experts" can fill pages upon pages of data about what the groups, namely Hezbollah, tried to do, where they tried it, how they were foiled and what they may have been targeting.

All of this doesn't address my most important question; why?

What has changed Iran's attitude?

A simple review of a few key subjects may give us a clue; maybe!

IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM:

Would Iran push the topic of reprisals based upon successful Hezbollah operations against the West and Israel?

Would this buy them time?

Would it distract the world from the weapons program; the real issue?

Why would Iran inflame the worlds opinion of them if they needed time and support for a nuclear program?

Did and does Iran believe the asymmetric war on terrorism would decrease the world's support for preventing Iran nuclear program?

 Has Iran been banking on " War Fatigue" from the West?

All of these opinions are out there for general discussion, but in my opinion they simple don't add up.

How does killing the Ambassador to the US from Saudi, on US land, expand "war fatigue"?

How does  attempting to kill a Saudi Prince, them most recent rumor.. a hit on Bandar... convince the West to let Iran go along with it's plan?

None of this makes any sense.

So, where do we go from here?

In order to answer the question of "why", we need to look at what Iran would gain from these attacks, especially if they continue to be successful.

If Iran needs to go on the offensive, they need to be attacked.

If you go back and read some of my older post from last year and this year, you will see my opinion on this theory several times.

Iran has to not be seen as the open aggressor.

They must try to be seen as the savior and preferably the savior of a Arab group; hence Hezbollah / Shia / in Lebanon.

This is the only chance of surviving a conflict they have been and are continuing to believe is bound to take place.

Iran knows the US and the West want to avoid conflict in Iran at nearly all cost, but they also know the Israelis will never suffer from War Fatigue again, at least not anytime soon after the embarrassment of 2006 and 2008.

Factor in the ever growing fear of the Arab Spring / Youth / freedom / movement and Iran knows that time is not on their side.

After the Arab Spring paranoia, Iran has the fear of social unrest due to sanctions.

The sanctions are starting to stack up and every new step only adds social pressure at levels the media may not see.

Just look at the issue of subsidies  in Iran and how the government is struggling to explain to the population why they cannot continue.

Iran is running out of time and they have known this for well over a year.

I'm not sure that anyone of these terrorist attacks would have convinced them it would lead to an Israeli counter move on Hezbollah in Lebanon; the target they desire the Israelis to hit.

Israel is well aware of the Iranian game and until they cannot ignore the pain these attacks bring on them, they will continue to find other ways to deal with them.

Then again, Iran is notoriously bad at "thinking" like the West or Israel.

So, maybe they think these actions across the world will lead to some event they can be seen as the hero of?

Again, their history of anticipating the West or Israel is not good.

Ok; here is my bottom line.

Iran's actions in the past 12 months are reckless and nearly illogical, unless we accept the idea they are prodding the West and specifically Israel.

That's my opinion and mine makes as much sense as the Black Turtleneck " Experts" out there.

http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=279716

THE DEATH OF A THOUSAND CUTS!!

The small town of Al -Bab is not as significant as the city of Aleppo, but then again the event itself could be a real indication of the status of the Syrian military.

Perception continues to rule the day in Syria and the "perception" that is out there is Assad's ground army is on the edge  of defeat.

It's becoming more and more clear the concept of a large ground offensive to take a city as large as Aleppo is a task too large for what is left of Assad's ground forces.

Not only would Assad's ground troops be unable to control the city of Aleppo if they could gain control, they would never be able  to give the people, what people are left, the confidence to turn Aleppo back into a business center.

The rebels true advantage is not in occupying the entire city.

Their version of a victory should be based upon denying Assad the ability to support his regime with economic support from Aleppo.

Choking off his economic lifeline is a strategic goal the rebels are close to completing.

So, the capture of a small town like Al - Bab is critical in the overall scheme of denial.

The more the rebels control the flow of commerce in the country side, the more Assad will have to adapt to a Berlin Airlift concept.

Even if he does hold the city of Damascus, and I'm not sure he does, if he loses the highways inside his land, then he doesn't control the country.

Again, an army that is too tired, too demoralized and soon under equipped, simply cannot hold every roadway providing the Syrian government support.

To put it simply, if nobody has noticed; Assad and his regime is dying " The Death of a Thousand Cuts".

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2012/07/201273154349545922.html

IRAN'S CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR ASSAD? LETS LOOK.

The second time in a little over a week the Iranian government has made a stronger than normal statement supporting Assad's regime.

In the Middle East, and in politics in general, when someone continues to voice their support for someone who is in trouble, that typically means they are about to give up on them!

Is this the case with Iran?

I don't believe so, not just yet.

I have said Iran is most likely trying to find an alternative future they can live with in Syria, but the baseline of what they would accept is still way off from what is being floated by the rebels and the rest of the world.

Tlass was an example of one of these attempts, but as I said yesterday, that is a distant dream right now.

What it appears Iran is doing is setting the bar and then making sure the rest of the world understands their baseline bargaining position.

Iran will not allow a Sunni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / style government; one that will lead to trouble within the Iranian population.

Iran may accept a Technocratic government that is "open" to all relationships as long as Hezbollah gets a free pass to travel and train in Syria.

Fat chance of that happening with the Sunni movement in the region.

Iran would be happy with a Syria that  falls into a prolonged civil crisis such as Lebanon did for over 15 years.

A Syria that is unable to counter Iran's plans is a Syria Iranian leadership can live with; not be happy, but live with.

Some may see this press statement by Iran's Foreign Minister is not merely a "line in the sand"; notice there is not warning of Iranian military support.

My impression is, this statement is just another way of Iran restating it's position on the crisis.

Oh, ya; notice they had to toss in the shot about the rebels being part of some larger Israeli plot!!!

I'm surprised Iran didn't mention George Bush.. it has the same worn out theme!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=279297

AS SYRIA RAGES... DON'T LOSE TRACK OF LEBANON.

Attached is a series of stories I read this week that have one common theme.

Lebanon is virtually at the edge of the abyss.

Tensions between Turkey and the Kurds boiled to the surface this week, but it was Lebanon that continue to catch my eye.

As you read these four stories, you can easily see just how unstable the government of Lebanon has become.

It's critical to keep track of the violence in Aleppo right now, but the issues of Kurds and Turks and the government of Lebanon are issues that must be watched as well.

Iran is struggling to find a suitable solution for the disaster that has become Syria and the fall of the pro Hezbollah government in Lebanon is more than Iran can handle.

If that's not enough, Iran now has to divert energy towards the issue of a growing Kurdish movement; a movement that has desires on Iranian land.

The March 14th part in Lebanon knows the timing is nearly right to strike a blow against the pro Hezbollah groups in Lebanon, but the reaction could be far more than they ready for.

In my opinion, Lebanon continues to be one big event away from a full-blown crisis; a crisis that  could quickly lead to a collapsed government.  

What worries we most, is the fatigue level of the people who are trying to keep the whole region from imploding.

Issue after issue continue to gain in complexity and speed.

At what point does it all simply become too much to keep together?

I say Lebanon is key.

Keeping Lebanon from conflict is key to keeping the region out of a regional war.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainra.asp?raid=9067

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainra.asp?raid=9068

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9168

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9178

IS EVERYONE REALLY LOOKING FOR A "COMPROMISE"???

A the talk in the past few days has been about finding a suitable replacement for Assad.

Someone the FSA, Russian, Turks, Iranians, GCC, and the rest of the world can accept.

If that sounds like a tall order, it is.

Oh, by the way, it needs to be someone Assad and his clan agree with as well, well... maybe!!

So, the name that is most batted around right now is ex General Tlass!

Tlass is a Sunni, a definite plus when it comes to the Turks and the Gulf States.

An issue Iran may be able to live with as long as he is more of a Technocrat type Sunni than a Muslim Brother model politician.

From the Russian perspective, they are just looking for a way out of a mess that has become way more complicated than they wanted. 

The issue with Putin will be, Tlass can't look like he was a US / Western idea!

If everyone wants Tlass to be the possible answer, then everyone is going to have to let the Tsar feel like it was his compromise.. that's what huge Egos do to people!

As for the Turks, the guys who want to be the new regional powerhouse, they are quickly growing more concerned about the Kurdistan issue than they are the replacement for Assad.

If Tlass is someone that can put the Kurd movement back in check, then he gets the Turk vote hands down.

From the US and Western perspective, anyone that can prevent a region war is going to get support even if that person turns out to be a flop down the road.

If that flop takes place after November of 2012, the US administration will be willing to walk away.

The Saudis and the rest of the GCC may not be totally happy with Tlass, at least that is the rumor right now, but they to could buy their time much as they have done in Yemen by supporting him for now.

Ok, here goes the million dollar question.

Are all parties involved getting closer to finding a way out of this crisis?

My bet is the answer is no.

Here is why I vote no.

First off, Assad gets a vote.

Now, rumors are flying he wants out, but I would say those rumors exist on websites and not in Assad's mind.

The deal to get Assad to step down is going to have to be complete amnesty for not only himself but for his loyal supporters. 

That's a order the FSA and the SNC simply will not fill.

For all the talk of a Yemen type scenario, the days of Assad getting a "deal" are gone!

Giving Assad a pass is quickly approaching the concept of ending WWII by finding a home for Hitler and the Nazi party somewhere in South America.

No, Assad can't go to Venezuela!

Chaves is on his death bed, he just doesn't believe it yet.

As soon as he is dead, Venezuela will have no opening for murderers looking for a place to hide.

No, the Tsar won't take him.

He has no need for him if he falls from power.

So you see, finding someone to run Syria is an issue for after Assad is gone.

The idea of finding someone and replacing Assad is absurd.

Now, the good news is, Russia or Iran could arrange for Assad to wake up dead!

If that were to happen, then the move to replace him will have to be a preset, pre agreed upon plan that can execute in a phone call.

If that is not the case, and I doubt it will be, then the country will turn into a revenge filled version of Zombie Land..

The short story tonight is this.

If you are listening to all the hype of a possible " compromise" you are probably setting yourself up for a real disappointment.

What is sure to happen is a bloodbath in Aleppo and that will change the course of the conflict for the worse.

Stack on top of that bad news, the real threat of the Kurdish uprising becoming an issue Turkey uses as an excuse to launch operations in Syria.

Turkish actions in Syria is exactly what Assad warned against this week and it may be just what he is praying for.

The good news is, Tlass has time to keep growing his hair out!

Lord knows what that look is all about!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=93046

KURDS MAKE THEIR MOVE?

One thing that is certain when dealing with a crisis such as the events in Syria.

You simply cannot predict the second and third order effects and the impact they will have on all parties.

It has been a real concern from the beginning of the actions in Syria that the Kurdish issue would rekindle.

Turkish leadership may not have made the Kurdish concern known in the early days of the Arab Spring , but they always had it in the back of their minds.

I can guarantee you it's been on the Kurd's mind from day one of the "Arab Spring".

What's good for the Goose is good for the Gander!

More importantly, this Kurdish issue is heavy on the minds of the struggling Iraqi government; a government that is very upset with Turkey over the developing oil trade with the Kurds of Northern Iraq.

 Along with Iraq and Turkey, Iran has a vote in the Kurdish issue as well given the desires the Kurds have for parts of Iranian land.

The prediction has been the destabilization of the region based on the ongoing events in Syria and this story is yet another indication that prediction is coming true.

PKK and PYD cooperation is a nightmare to Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq!

 The UN is a world body that is simply unable to deal with this "cooperation"; I.E. they can't betray the Kurds as they have in the past.

Simply put; the Kurds feel it could very well be "their time".

If leadership inside the PKK and the PYD are truly ready to cooperate, then the world has a whole new problem in the region.

Enter the Tsar!!

To Putin; Kurdistan is spelled "OIL"...

Kurds are not Arab... they don't have their sights on the Stans... they don't want a Muslim / Islamist capital in Chechnya.

Turkey is trying to work around Putin and the Stans when it come to oil.

Perhaps Putin is going to find a new friend in the concept of this "cooperation".

If you think not... do not forget the Tsar is the old Master of the KGB.

Make a friend one day and the next... a bullet to the back of the head.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=93033