THE REAL QUESTION IS WHY?
Ok, so the report is released that states Iran's support to
Terrorism is the highest it's been in over ten years?
The so called "experts" can fill pages upon pages
of data about what the groups, namely Hezbollah, tried to do, where they tried
it, how they were foiled and what they may have been targeting.
All of this doesn't address my most important question; why?
What has changed Iran's attitude?
A simple review of a few key subjects may give us a clue; maybe!
IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM:
Would Iran push the topic of reprisals based upon successful
Hezbollah operations against the West and Israel?
Would this buy them time?
Would it distract the world from the weapons program; the
real issue?
Why would Iran inflame the worlds opinion of them if they
needed time and support for a nuclear program?
Did and does Iran believe the asymmetric war on terrorism
would decrease the world's support for preventing Iran nuclear program?
Has Iran been banking
on " War Fatigue" from the West?
All of these opinions are out there for general discussion,
but in my opinion they simple don't add up.
How does killing the Ambassador to the US from Saudi, on US
land, expand "war fatigue"?
How does attempting
to kill a Saudi Prince, them most recent rumor.. a hit on Bandar... convince
the West to let Iran go along with it's plan?
None of this makes any sense.
So, where do we go from here?
In order to answer the question of "why", we need
to look at what Iran would gain from these attacks, especially if they continue
to be successful.
If Iran needs to go on the offensive, they need to be
attacked.
If you go back and read some of my older post from last year
and this year, you will see my opinion on this theory several times.
Iran has to not be seen as the open aggressor.
They must try to be seen as the savior and preferably the
savior of a Arab group; hence Hezbollah / Shia / in Lebanon.
This is the only chance of surviving a conflict they have
been and are continuing to believe is bound to take place.
Iran knows the US and the West want to avoid conflict in
Iran at nearly all cost, but they also know the Israelis will never suffer from
War Fatigue again, at least not anytime soon after the embarrassment of 2006
and 2008.
Factor in the ever growing fear of the Arab Spring / Youth /
freedom / movement and Iran knows that time is not on their side.
After the Arab Spring paranoia, Iran has the fear of social
unrest due to sanctions.
The sanctions are starting to stack up and every new step
only adds social pressure at levels the media may not see.
Just look at the issue of subsidies in Iran and how the government is struggling
to explain to the population why they cannot continue.
Iran is running out of time and they have known this for
well over a year.
I'm not sure that anyone of these terrorist attacks would
have convinced them it would lead to an Israeli counter move on Hezbollah in
Lebanon; the target they desire the Israelis to hit.
Israel is well aware of the Iranian game and until they
cannot ignore the pain these attacks bring on them, they will continue to find
other ways to deal with them.
Then again, Iran is notoriously bad at "thinking"
like the West or Israel.
So, maybe they think these actions across the world will
lead to some event they can be seen as the hero of?
Again, their history of anticipating the West or Israel is
not good.
Ok; here is my bottom line.
Iran's actions in the past 12 months are reckless and nearly
illogical, unless we accept the idea they are prodding the West and specifically
Israel.
That's my opinion and mine makes as much sense as the Black
Turtleneck " Experts" out there.
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