OH... TO BE A FLY ON THE WALL!!!!

Morsi's first trip out of Egypt being one to Saudi should come as no surprise to anyone.

Two polished men both skilled in the art of " speaking between the words spoken".

My hunch the simplistic version of this meeting went something like this.

" So, you need funding and you need public support as the new leader of Egypt?  What's in it for me"?

Now, the more polite way of saying this was executed I am sure, but the real message would not have been lost.

Here is the real question.

Who needs who more?

Morsi needs money and support.

Saudi needs "assurances" and Morsi at his word.

Is the Brotherhood a "friend" of the Saudi Royal Family?

Not really!

Both have agendas and they do not share a common "vision" of what the Middle East should look like.

The good news is, they both know this.

The art of outmaneuvering your opponent is a classic game in the region and both men know how to play it well.

Read carefully and you will see Morsi chose his words well.

As is always the case in the Middle East the press announcement was packed with " small talk".

Hidden messages are often derived from what is not said or what is not spoken more than what is praised.

Morsi is well aware of the relationship Mubarak  had with the Saudi Royals.

The King is well aware of the "Vision" of the MB.

In all the articles I read about this historic meeting, I found only one indirect message dealing the fire that is Syria and absolutely nothing in regard to Iran.

A comment by Morsi about "regional stability" is about as indirect as you can get.

This was a great first round of what is going to prove to be a complex Chess match.

Two "Masters" of their Arabic skillcraft..... small talk... with words inside of words.

IS ASSAD REALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE UNTHINKABLE?

As I talked about early this week, the concept of Assad utilizing WMD is more than just frightening; it's historical.

It's historical becuse there is a history of these types of weapons being utilized in the Middle East.

It's historical because Assad knows these weapons have been utilized in the past and the world stood by and watched.

the world complained, but in the end it did little to nothing; until 2003!

So, does Assad think he can get away with using WMD?

Is Assad so desperate that he may utilize the last resort in his arsenal?

As I asked this week, will his generals follow such a dramatic order?

Does he truly control the weapons?

Well, this time, instead of just asking the questions, let me attempt to answer them; my opinion of course!

DOES ASSAD THINK HE CAN GET AWAY WITH IT?

Most likely he is beginning to believe so, but he may not be ready to execute the order..... just yet!

Again the issue of "history" in the region.

As disturbing as this would be, he could limit the action; send the message he is serious about holding on to power.   ( I give this theory backing only if the Tsar and the Persians tell him to go ahead.)

He could accuse "outsiders" of the event, especially a limited event.

"The 'Terrorist' stole  them and used them on the people of Syria".

Finally, lets assume Assad sees no way out of the Civil War he now finds himself in and he understands that time is running out for his military and his hold on power. HINT.. His military is losing major engagements and that is without the Kurds attacking him!!!!

WILL HIS MILITARY LEADERS FOLLOW SUCH AN ORDER?

This  is where one of the last rays of hope still shines.

Given who left him last week and given how close that particular General was to Assad's inner circle, will the other Generals follow such an order?

Here is the cloud with this " ray of hope"!

I don't believe his military leaders are in total control of this process.

To find the answer of how loyal his generals are, we must look to Iran.

It's no secret he has lost confidence in many who he considered "loyal" and even more important, Iran has lost confidence in the Syrian General Officer ranks.

Simply put, if Assad decides or is told to execute a WMD event, it will most likely be carried out with Iranian or Hezbollah oversight.

This event would force the countries of the region and the West into action.

To prove Iran or it's proxy Hezbollah carried out such an event on Syrian soil, would be a absolute "green light" for unified action!

The danger becomes, how does Iran react to the reaction to the WMD event?

Complicated enough for you yet?????

Ok, add the Tsar into the equation!!!

DOES HE TRULY CONTROL THE WEAPONS?

For the most part, I just gave you my opinion on this question.

Here is one twist.

Who controls them if Assad wakes up dead????

Hezbollah???? Iran???? The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood?????

Before Israeli leadership is informed the WMDs are  in Hezbollah hands, the locations will be smoldering holes in the earth....

Ok, what is the near term danger?

If some of these weapons are on the move, and most believe they are, where are they going and who are they going to?

Two questions the Israelis will not wait too terribly long for answer.

For over a year now, I have preached, Chicken Little, just how dangerous this situation in Syria was and is.

Syria is not Egypt... Syria is not Libya... Syria is not Tunisia.

Syria is the most dangerous event in the Middle East since the 1973 war!

 http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=277381

KURDS UNITED??? IF TRUE.. ASSAD'S TROUBLES JUST GOT WORSE.

The topic if a potential agreement between Kurdish factions on the Syrian issue is a news story that should have played much larger than it did today.

It's very possible, those that know the Kurds, simply don't believe this is going to take place.

The problem is, Assad, who's had nothing bad news all week long, will probably be one of the first to believe this unification could take place.

The Northern part of Syria is Kurdish territory by history and it's an area the Kurds know very well.

The concept of the Syrian military have  to carve off additional units to deal with very well armed and extremely deadly Kurdish units will only deepen the desperation of Assad.

Several months ago, I talked about how vital to the rebel conflict it would be to have the Kurds turn on Assad.

Now, the Sunni and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood know all too well the Kurds could care less about their movement.

If the Kurds are really going to get into this conflict, there is one and only one reason why; Kurdistan!!!

That's what they want and that is what they will fight for.

Now, that nation they seek is not just made up of Syrian land.

Turkey and Iran are just two of the major players in this event that will think twice about the Kurds concept of involvement.

This is where the issue really gets interesting.

I've mentioned this before, but Turkey  may just have a concept behind a proxy war with Iran utilizing the Kurds and Syrian land.

It's the age old attempt of giving an enemy someone else's land in exchange for them not wanting a slice of yours.

If the Kurds have truly decided to join forces, then you can bet that concept has been reviewed and most likely approved by "others".

The Peshmerga is a deadly force that is more than capable of taking the fight to the Syrian Military and doing so at a whole new level.

So, is this "Unification" for real?

For Assads' sake and perhaps for Iran's sake, they better hope not.

Oh ya, who would arm the Peshmerga?

Well in the past Iran armed some of them to disrupt Turkey... code for keep them busy so they don't cause trouble in Iran.

Arming someone and then have them use those arms against you... gee... .. like that has never happened before....just asked the old Soviet Empire about Egypt... or ask the US about Afghanistan and so on and so on!!!!!

My hunch is, there is a "deal" being made here.. and a proxy fight on a new front....

The question becomes.. who is making the "deal"????

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=92398

ONCE A SUNNI... ALWAYS A SUNNI!!!!

How big a deal is the defection of Sawaf al-Fares?

You can bet the knee-jerk answer from the talking heads will be, " it's a true indicator his 'inner circle' may be cracking"!!

Is that what this really means?

Perhaps, but the perception advantage will not be lost on the rebels.

what it does prove to Assad, is something that should have been obvious to him from the start.

Once a Sunni... always a Sunni!!!

Now, did Sawaf, find his religion and defect or did he come to realize he was going to end up like the Bath party members in Iraq in the near future?

The danger of this event is very similar to the fighter pilot defections.

It will all but seal the fate of fellow Sunnis who Assad still believes are on his side.

His paranoia level, one that is already sky high, is going to get much worse.

This will only compound the fear of the Sunni who have stuck by his side, most for financial reasons and some out of simple fear.

If Iran doesn't have  eyes on the Sunni elite still in Damascus, I would be stunned!!!!

So, back to the question is this a  "big deal"?

My answer; not because he is a "big name", but because of what it will mean to Assad's failing trust in the Sunni still siding with him.

A crack in the Assad camp??

I would say it's an earthquake in the Sunni / Assad camp!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=277171

UN REACHES OUT TO IRAN OVER SYRIA??

Reaching out to Iran over Syria is like reaching out to one Crime Family in order to influence another.

An argument can be made for both sides of this concept.

The UN realizes the real decisions on Syria are made in Tehran with some consideration going to Moscow.

Given the current environment between the US and Iran, it's logical to let the UN be the "messenger" to Iran.

So, does it make sense to " reach out" to Iran?

Yes.

Will it lead to any tangible results?

Probably not, at least not anytime soon and the people of Syria don't have a lot of time.

If Iran's official position is  based on Syrian elections in 2014, then must realize how idiotic that sounds to the rest of the world.

It also gives the perception Iran is not serious about Assad's future.

My bet is, Iran is serious about Assad's future and the future of Syria, but they are not going to spell out their vision to the UN, at least not yet.

The other issue the UN has it taking any message from Assad back to the rebels, other than the message of " I'm leaving".

Ok, so Iran is finally involved in the topic of Syria, officially!

Does that mean we should be getting our hopes up?

Don't hold your breath.

The fact of the matter is, Iran has involved in this issue for months now and we all can see what results that has given us.

Here is a interesting side note.

Let's play " What if" for a minute..

What if. Iraq becomes the new Syria for Iran?

Does Iran need Syria and it's support operations for Hezbollah if Iraq solidifies as Iran's new proxy nation?

I asked this question because I've been listening to this "theory" for months now.

Here is my input.

Iraq is not Syria and Iraq cannot control Lebanon.

So, no there is not possible "proxy exchange" formulary out there; just incase you hear that train of thought from the so called " experts".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18784286

ONCE AGAIN.. LEBANON BECOMES THE ISSUE!

In all the other news from the Middle East and given the fact the target

agreed to hold off until today to hold a press conference, it's easy to see

why this story in not very well covered.

Never the less, yet another attempt on the opposition, opposition to the

Hezbollah that is, is an indication of just how unstable Lebanon is.

Hezbollah knows the fall of the current coalition government in Lebanon at a

time when Hezbollah is heavily tasked by Iran to support Syria, is a

disastrous issue for them, at least I hope it is.

How they have come to the conclusion that a successful assassinations of

opposition members could help stave off the possible fall of the current

government is a mystery to me, unless they are willing to see the current government fall???

 One thing is absolute; nothing invites crisis like a failed assassination!

I'm still convinced events in Lebanon are vital to the overall future of the

region.

I'm even more concerned that Iran would support a Hezbollah plan to threaten

the current opposition leadership.

Assassinations and the talk of them is still an extremely emotional topic

for Lebanon.

Threatening members of the March 14th group, a group that had its leader

blown up in 2005, hardly seems the way to keep the peace.

If Iran is so desperate now that they have come around to the theory of a lighting a

"back fire" to relive the pressure on Syria, then the whole region is at a

crisis point. 

The last article attached is by Robert Fisk and talks to the issue of Sheikh Al Assir, the "roadblocker" of Lebanon.

He is quickly becoming a Sunni National Hero and he knows it!

He is a flame near the fuel of violence that Hezbollah must not touch, unless they want to.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9116

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9115

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-the-rebel-sheikh-defying-hezbollah-to-take-aim-at-assad-7923384.html

SIGNS OF A SYRIAN GOVERNMENT ON THE BRINK?

Two interesting reports that paint a picture of what many fear, a Syrian government that is near the state of panic.

The old saying goes, " a picture is worth a thousand words"; in this case it's a video.

A few weeks ago I spoke of what a dramatic change of events it had become when the rebels could stand their ground against "regular military units" and win!

It became even more important to realize the rebels could limit the movement of Syrian Military members and leadership inside their own  installations; a true measure of a military on the defense, not offense.

In the first attached report, the video shows the rebels not only taking a key Headquarters facility, but having the time to wire the whole thing to blow up!

This is a force that has the advantage, and the Syrian Military knows it.

The second article hints at something that is even far more dangerous for the region than a rebel force that is able to take the offense.

It speaks to an issue most of the world has forgotten.

Syria is a nation of complex, massive WMD weapons.

A few weeks ago I talked about the danger of these WMD locations staying in the hands of the Syrian government and even the negotiations that took place between the US and Russia to keep these weapons safe.

 Assad sees his military now engaged in conventional combat in multiple locations inside of Syria.

He sees his military consuming it's conventional stockpile of military hardware at an alarming rate.

More importantly, he sees his countries ability to defend itself  rapidly decreasing.

A military that know longer believes it can win and no longer believes it's leadership is trying to win is a military that will no longer shed it's blood!

A civilian population that is no longer willing to follow it's leadership, is a civilian population that will no longer allow a leader to stay in power.

So, what is Assad's options?

More importantly, what are Iran's options?

The military " exercise" over the past few days is a clear sign to anyone that is paying attention.

Assad is telling the region and the world he is close to making everyone pay a price of his departure.

Creating an "external" threat to attempt to rally the people and the military is his last desperate act, or is it?

The DEBKA article talks to something that world leaders realize.

Assad and his Iranian handlers have one terrible option left!!

The most important question of this long conflict finally comes to the table.

Will Assad use his WMD?

Will the Iranians force him to use them?

Such a act would spell a crisis beyond explanation for the region and Iran knows this.

Does a imploded Syria, something that Iran cannot live with, mean Iran is now calling the shots in Syria?

He is my question.

If Assad were to give the order, would his military leaders follow it?

Who left him last week?

Why?

Does he control his WMD or do the Iranians?

Starting a "external" conflict is his only option left, unless he decides to use his WMD arsenal.

Two options and both of them are disastrous for the region.

It's time for his most trusted military leaders to turn on him, that is if they are left.

I fear his real military leaders now wear Iranian uniforms.

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2012/07/201278104350616752.html

http://www.debka.com/article/22162/Clinton-Syria-on-brink-of-catastrophe-as-rebels-advance-The-region-in-danger