Sunday, July 8, 2012















SIGNS OF A SYRIAN GOVERNMENT ON THE BRINK?

Two interesting reports that paint a picture of what many fear, a Syrian government that is near the state of panic.

The old saying goes, " a picture is worth a thousand words"; in this case it's a video.

A few weeks ago I spoke of what a dramatic change of events it had become when the rebels could stand their ground against "regular military units" and win!

It became even more important to realize the rebels could limit the movement of Syrian Military members and leadership inside their own  installations; a true measure of a military on the defense, not offense.

In the first attached report, the video shows the rebels not only taking a key Headquarters facility, but having the time to wire the whole thing to blow up!

This is a force that has the advantage, and the Syrian Military knows it.

The second article hints at something that is even far more dangerous for the region than a rebel force that is able to take the offense.

It speaks to an issue most of the world has forgotten.

Syria is a nation of complex, massive WMD weapons.

A few weeks ago I talked about the danger of these WMD locations staying in the hands of the Syrian government and even the negotiations that took place between the US and Russia to keep these weapons safe.

 Assad sees his military now engaged in conventional combat in multiple locations inside of Syria.

He sees his military consuming it's conventional stockpile of military hardware at an alarming rate.

More importantly, he sees his countries ability to defend itself  rapidly decreasing.

A military that know longer believes it can win and no longer believes it's leadership is trying to win is a military that will no longer shed it's blood!

A civilian population that is no longer willing to follow it's leadership, is a civilian population that will no longer allow a leader to stay in power.

So, what is Assad's options?

More importantly, what are Iran's options?

The military " exercise" over the past few days is a clear sign to anyone that is paying attention.

Assad is telling the region and the world he is close to making everyone pay a price of his departure.

Creating an "external" threat to attempt to rally the people and the military is his last desperate act, or is it?

The DEBKA article talks to something that world leaders realize.

Assad and his Iranian handlers have one terrible option left!!

The most important question of this long conflict finally comes to the table.

Will Assad use his WMD?

Will the Iranians force him to use them?

Such a act would spell a crisis beyond explanation for the region and Iran knows this.

Does a imploded Syria, something that Iran cannot live with, mean Iran is now calling the shots in Syria?

He is my question.

If Assad were to give the order, would his military leaders follow it?

Who left him last week?

Why?

Does he control his WMD or do the Iranians?

Starting a "external" conflict is his only option left, unless he decides to use his WMD arsenal.

Two options and both of them are disastrous for the region.

It's time for his most trusted military leaders to turn on him, that is if they are left.

I fear his real military leaders now wear Iranian uniforms.


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