SO.  WAS IT REALLY A SHOOTDOWN ??

Well, lets keep this simple and short given this event will have multiple updates as the day moves on.

My best guess is the Syrian Anti Aircraft unit shot the Turkish fighter down thinking it was yet another defecting pilot.

Syrian AA units are about 1/100 as trained and proficient as a typical NATO or Western unit.

What they probably did get was a standing order to fire on any aircraft flying in a  certain area that was not properly identified.

Syrian aircraft to not have FF, Friend or Foe, electronics and a trigger happy AA battery commander would only be thinking about what would happen to him if he allowed another Syrian Jet to travel his air space without authorization.

So,  I don’t buy the theory this was a deliberate act, but the actions of a poorly trained AA unit and paranoid leadership.

This would explain why Turkey has responded so carefully, knowing full well what a disastrous  event this could turn into.

Bottom line, this is just another indication of just how dangerous this whole crisis is becoming.

Have countries fallen into conflicts over a miss communication or a paranoid mistake?

Really… is that a serous question?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126221721460173.html

DID THE UN REALLY PULL OUT?

Many were not surprised by the announcement of the UN teams “halting” their activities, whatever they may have been.

So, what does this mean  to the rest of the world and more importantly what does it mean to the people of Syria?

Lets look at this decision from a viewpoint that may not be a normal media reaction.

Let’s talk about those who have quietly been supporting Assad and those who have been too afraid to rise up against him,  and this is a large part of the first group I just mentioned.

Every day the lives of these two groups is based upon hope.

The hope that things will get better is the dominant issue with the rise of every morning Sun!

Imagine waking up today and hearing on the news the statement you probably knew was coming?

Now, an optimist would say, “the UN didn’t say they were leaving. They are just holding fast until things  calm down”.

These two groups know what we all know, that is not going to happen anytime soon!

Fear, once again, rules the day coupled with despair  for those who are simply trying to survive in Syria.

Imagine the feeling of knowing  you have to open your store, go to work not because you want to, but because the government Thugs threaten you and your family if you don’t.

Ok, the message I am trying to get across here is one of every increasing despair, not only for the ones fighting to free themselves from Assad, for you see when you are fighting, you have the opportunity to counter despair with your anger and your determination, but when you are just simple working people who only want the world to be somewhat normal while you struggle to provide for you family, there is little to grasp on to.

It is this group the UN announcement impacted the most today!!!

It’s just one more sign of how tragic your life is continuing to become.

I really don’t care, at least not right now, what this announcement means to the political leadership in the West, Russia, China or even the UN.

Right now, today, this message sinks the hearts of those who are so desperately trying to hang on in Syria.

The world has far more good people than evil ones and it is up to the good people of the world to save the good!!!!

The evil are just that evil!!!!

Some can spend their entire life trying to right the wrongs of the world and thank God these people eventually rise to the occasion. 

MB.. THINGS NOT GOING ACCORDING TO THE "PLAN"???

last night I mentioned the MB may not have things going just their way and that could impact their "Master Plans" for the Palestinian Authority and even actions elsewhere in the region.

Well, it became clear today the Egyptian Military was not finished with their long history of calling the shots in Egypt.

I listened to both Shafiq's speech and Mursi's rant... that is exactly what it was!!!!

Some are calling today's court decision a coup, and to the general population it's not too far fetched to believe that is exactly what happened.

I would not place this dramatic announcement in the category of a coup, but I would admit the path chosen today by the Scaf is a dangerous one.

Mursi's tirade was confusing, partially because the translator on Al Jazeera was terrible, but the emotion exhibited by Mursi was undeniable.

Now, does the MB really believe they are going to lose the election this weekend?

I would say they are ready to make the Scaf pay the price if they do not win.

Egypt, as some have predicted, is possibly about to slip back into the crisis of 2011 and the region knows it simply can absorb anymore bad news.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18453721

FATAH AND HAMAS CLOSE AGAIN....SO THEY SAY!! AGAIN!!!

With all the world watching the events in Syria, this issue simply is not getting any traction in the Western media.

For the 300th time, sarcasm inserted, Fatah and Hamas state they are "close" to a unified government.

Right!!

Not much has changed on this front.

Hamas still can't stand Fayyad and Abbas won't work without him.

So, what is changing this time around?

My answer is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Notice how they real decisions on this topic are once again put off until the second round of the Egyptian Presidential Elections?

It's just another sign of who is really calling the shots here...

In the MB Master Plan, the Palestinian Authority will have a unified government and that government will answer to the MB.

The MB problem is the situation in Egypt is not going as easy as they planned.

It's not that they have forgotten about the plan to unify the PA government, it's just that they must solidify their Egyptian issue first.

In the meantime, the Israeli government watches to see what the MB plans for the PA.

Israel knows all too well the end-state for the MB is to have a unified PA government that demands statehood and Jerusalem.

The timetable for this plan is something the MB wants to control and that means getting Hamas and Fatah to do as they are told.

 Not too many people are really holding their collective breath for this " unified" event, but Israel is still formulating what the reaction needs to be if it happens.

If things don't go the way the MB wants them to in Egypt, and I think they could, then all bets are off and the MB will be distracted for sometime to come.

Add to that the now declared Civil War in Syria and the PA unification issue could continue to be nothing more than a typical mirage in the desert. 

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=273730

UN OFFICIAL "SYRIA IN CIVIL WAR"...... NO KIDDING!!!!!

Two nights ago I commented on how ominous it appeared not that reports were getting out that entire units, brigade size units, were defecting!

It didn't take long for some of the UN members, who have a tactical background, to come to the realization that events such as this one would push Syria over the edge.

Having said that, it still had to be a coordinated event for the UN to support their member making such an obvious statement.

If the UN didn't support what their member said, they would have jumped on the airwaves of the media and shut the story down as soon as possible. 

So, what does it mean now that the UN has made such a bold statement?

Here is my spin.

How this plays in the GCC and Turkey is the real issue.

For Turkey to formally hear the UN declare a "Civil War" on Turkeys' border is something to worry about.

How Saudi plays this against the Iranians is the next issue.

What did surprise me was how quickly the US Department of State, Secretary of State, came out with the comment about Russian support to Syria.

If the UN's backing of their members statement was not coordinated with the Secretary of State's comment, and I don't believe it was, it will still be seen as a "coordinated event" in the eyes of Iran, Russia and Syria.

Today was a day of dangerous words and these words will be responded to by all three, Russia, Iran and Syria.

A war of escalating statements is probably coming within the next day at most.

Tomorrow , I will cover what tactically may be about to change in Syria and how that might change the level of the conflict.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201261222721181345.html

PENDING VOTE IN LEBANON COULD DECIDE THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST


Lebanon continues to be a key issue in the gauging of Middle Eastern
conflict.

It is not realistic to believe Assad or Iran would threaten the West with
spreading the crisis by pulling in Lebanon and it is clear Lebanese
leadership has no intention of allowing that to take place.

We must not forget that Lebanon is vital to Iranian strategy, but  not from
a standpoint of neutralizing the Syrian crisis.

Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah remain tools of Iran for conflict with
Israel and will not be squandered on the Syrian crisis as a retaliatory
measure.

Having said this; there is some credit to the concept of "use or lose".

 The Iranians could contemplate "use or lose",  but that becomes a factor
only if it is clear Syria was to  fall into total Sunni control.

A Syria that is at its worst a land of civil war with no real leadership is
still a place where Iranian guided Lebanese Hezbollah can execute missions
on Iranian orders.

Lebanon in the 80s was a land of crisis, with operational terrorist units
free to train, execute missions and live as they liked.

Iran along with Russia may be coming to the conclusion crisis without Assad
is better than the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in control.

Russia is on the wrong side of world opinion and even someone as egotistical
as Putin understands this cannot continue.

If this holds true, then the idea of Assad falling or the West conducting a
Libyan style attack becomes far more likely.

So, the key becomes Lebanon!

Keeping the Syrian crisis out of Lebanon is vital to the overall stability
of the region.

The problem is, the Sunni leadership sees the timing may be right to move on
the Lebanese Hezbollah if Assad falls.

Keeping Lebanon out of crisis, one I think they are already in is going to
prove very difficult to accomplish.

Thus; the Iranian "use or lose" theory comes back into play.

Hezbollah actions worldwide, to include in the US, cannot be overlooked.



http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jun-11/176414-lebanese-rival-
leaders-break-the-ice-meet-for-national-dialogue.ashx#axzz1xUcX86M3

A TROUBLING STORY THAT MIGHT BE OVERLOOKED!

Taking control of a brigade?

What does that mean?

It appears this brigade defected and if true, a defection at brigade level is a serious escalation of events for Assad.

Brigade level assets are a substantial issue.

Brigade level leadership and expertise is even a larger issue for Assad.

Just look at this issue in terms of equipment, radios as an example.

Frequencies.... operational, communication and command and control issues are huge implications of this possible event.

It's one thing when a few young solders or a single Senior Officer defects.

It's even more important when it's let say an Company size unit.

But when a unit with the capabilities of a combat brigade jumps sides, that is a huge tactical as well as strategic  event.

Now, consider the intelligence value of such a unit.

Think of the knowledge a brigade level headquarters element would have of area operations?

Knowledge is power and this is never more true than in combat.

If this really happened as this story indicates, then a major step has been taken towards the ever feared, and in my opinion already here.. Civil War.

Let's see if this story pops up again soon.

Let's see if Al Jazeera covers it.

Don't underestimate what this might mean to the crisis in Syria!!!!

Oh, and it's not good news... not in terms of increased violence.

As a reminder... A Syrian brigade is not the same structure or size wise as a typical US or NATO unit, but that is lost in the strategic value of this possible event.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=273357