PENDING VOTE IN LEBANON COULD DECIDE THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST


Lebanon continues to be a key issue in the gauging of Middle Eastern
conflict.

It is not realistic to believe Assad or Iran would threaten the West with
spreading the crisis by pulling in Lebanon and it is clear Lebanese
leadership has no intention of allowing that to take place.

We must not forget that Lebanon is vital to Iranian strategy, but  not from
a standpoint of neutralizing the Syrian crisis.

Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah remain tools of Iran for conflict with
Israel and will not be squandered on the Syrian crisis as a retaliatory
measure.

Having said this; there is some credit to the concept of "use or lose".

 The Iranians could contemplate "use or lose",  but that becomes a factor
only if it is clear Syria was to  fall into total Sunni control.

A Syria that is at its worst a land of civil war with no real leadership is
still a place where Iranian guided Lebanese Hezbollah can execute missions
on Iranian orders.

Lebanon in the 80s was a land of crisis, with operational terrorist units
free to train, execute missions and live as they liked.

Iran along with Russia may be coming to the conclusion crisis without Assad
is better than the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in control.

Russia is on the wrong side of world opinion and even someone as egotistical
as Putin understands this cannot continue.

If this holds true, then the idea of Assad falling or the West conducting a
Libyan style attack becomes far more likely.

So, the key becomes Lebanon!

Keeping the Syrian crisis out of Lebanon is vital to the overall stability
of the region.

The problem is, the Sunni leadership sees the timing may be right to move on
the Lebanese Hezbollah if Assad falls.

Keeping Lebanon out of crisis, one I think they are already in is going to
prove very difficult to accomplish.

Thus; the Iranian "use or lose" theory comes back into play.

Hezbollah actions worldwide, to include in the US, cannot be overlooked.



http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jun-11/176414-lebanese-rival-
leaders-break-the-ice-meet-for-national-dialogue.ashx#axzz1xUcX86M3