MB.. THINGS NOT GOING ACCORDING TO THE "PLAN"???

last night I mentioned the MB may not have things going just their way and that could impact their "Master Plans" for the Palestinian Authority and even actions elsewhere in the region.

Well, it became clear today the Egyptian Military was not finished with their long history of calling the shots in Egypt.

I listened to both Shafiq's speech and Mursi's rant... that is exactly what it was!!!!

Some are calling today's court decision a coup, and to the general population it's not too far fetched to believe that is exactly what happened.

I would not place this dramatic announcement in the category of a coup, but I would admit the path chosen today by the Scaf is a dangerous one.

Mursi's tirade was confusing, partially because the translator on Al Jazeera was terrible, but the emotion exhibited by Mursi was undeniable.

Now, does the MB really believe they are going to lose the election this weekend?

I would say they are ready to make the Scaf pay the price if they do not win.

Egypt, as some have predicted, is possibly about to slip back into the crisis of 2011 and the region knows it simply can absorb anymore bad news.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18453721

FATAH AND HAMAS CLOSE AGAIN....SO THEY SAY!! AGAIN!!!

With all the world watching the events in Syria, this issue simply is not getting any traction in the Western media.

For the 300th time, sarcasm inserted, Fatah and Hamas state they are "close" to a unified government.

Right!!

Not much has changed on this front.

Hamas still can't stand Fayyad and Abbas won't work without him.

So, what is changing this time around?

My answer is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Notice how they real decisions on this topic are once again put off until the second round of the Egyptian Presidential Elections?

It's just another sign of who is really calling the shots here...

In the MB Master Plan, the Palestinian Authority will have a unified government and that government will answer to the MB.

The MB problem is the situation in Egypt is not going as easy as they planned.

It's not that they have forgotten about the plan to unify the PA government, it's just that they must solidify their Egyptian issue first.

In the meantime, the Israeli government watches to see what the MB plans for the PA.

Israel knows all too well the end-state for the MB is to have a unified PA government that demands statehood and Jerusalem.

The timetable for this plan is something the MB wants to control and that means getting Hamas and Fatah to do as they are told.

 Not too many people are really holding their collective breath for this " unified" event, but Israel is still formulating what the reaction needs to be if it happens.

If things don't go the way the MB wants them to in Egypt, and I think they could, then all bets are off and the MB will be distracted for sometime to come.

Add to that the now declared Civil War in Syria and the PA unification issue could continue to be nothing more than a typical mirage in the desert. 

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=273730

UN OFFICIAL "SYRIA IN CIVIL WAR"...... NO KIDDING!!!!!

Two nights ago I commented on how ominous it appeared not that reports were getting out that entire units, brigade size units, were defecting!

It didn't take long for some of the UN members, who have a tactical background, to come to the realization that events such as this one would push Syria over the edge.

Having said that, it still had to be a coordinated event for the UN to support their member making such an obvious statement.

If the UN didn't support what their member said, they would have jumped on the airwaves of the media and shut the story down as soon as possible. 

So, what does it mean now that the UN has made such a bold statement?

Here is my spin.

How this plays in the GCC and Turkey is the real issue.

For Turkey to formally hear the UN declare a "Civil War" on Turkeys' border is something to worry about.

How Saudi plays this against the Iranians is the next issue.

What did surprise me was how quickly the US Department of State, Secretary of State, came out with the comment about Russian support to Syria.

If the UN's backing of their members statement was not coordinated with the Secretary of State's comment, and I don't believe it was, it will still be seen as a "coordinated event" in the eyes of Iran, Russia and Syria.

Today was a day of dangerous words and these words will be responded to by all three, Russia, Iran and Syria.

A war of escalating statements is probably coming within the next day at most.

Tomorrow , I will cover what tactically may be about to change in Syria and how that might change the level of the conflict.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201261222721181345.html

PENDING VOTE IN LEBANON COULD DECIDE THE FUTURE OF THE MIDDLE EAST


Lebanon continues to be a key issue in the gauging of Middle Eastern
conflict.

It is not realistic to believe Assad or Iran would threaten the West with
spreading the crisis by pulling in Lebanon and it is clear Lebanese
leadership has no intention of allowing that to take place.

We must not forget that Lebanon is vital to Iranian strategy, but  not from
a standpoint of neutralizing the Syrian crisis.

Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah remain tools of Iran for conflict with
Israel and will not be squandered on the Syrian crisis as a retaliatory
measure.

Having said this; there is some credit to the concept of "use or lose".

 The Iranians could contemplate "use or lose",  but that becomes a factor
only if it is clear Syria was to  fall into total Sunni control.

A Syria that is at its worst a land of civil war with no real leadership is
still a place where Iranian guided Lebanese Hezbollah can execute missions
on Iranian orders.

Lebanon in the 80s was a land of crisis, with operational terrorist units
free to train, execute missions and live as they liked.

Iran along with Russia may be coming to the conclusion crisis without Assad
is better than the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in control.

Russia is on the wrong side of world opinion and even someone as egotistical
as Putin understands this cannot continue.

If this holds true, then the idea of Assad falling or the West conducting a
Libyan style attack becomes far more likely.

So, the key becomes Lebanon!

Keeping the Syrian crisis out of Lebanon is vital to the overall stability
of the region.

The problem is, the Sunni leadership sees the timing may be right to move on
the Lebanese Hezbollah if Assad falls.

Keeping Lebanon out of crisis, one I think they are already in is going to
prove very difficult to accomplish.

Thus; the Iranian "use or lose" theory comes back into play.

Hezbollah actions worldwide, to include in the US, cannot be overlooked.



http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jun-11/176414-lebanese-rival-
leaders-break-the-ice-meet-for-national-dialogue.ashx#axzz1xUcX86M3

A TROUBLING STORY THAT MIGHT BE OVERLOOKED!

Taking control of a brigade?

What does that mean?

It appears this brigade defected and if true, a defection at brigade level is a serious escalation of events for Assad.

Brigade level assets are a substantial issue.

Brigade level leadership and expertise is even a larger issue for Assad.

Just look at this issue in terms of equipment, radios as an example.

Frequencies.... operational, communication and command and control issues are huge implications of this possible event.

It's one thing when a few young solders or a single Senior Officer defects.

It's even more important when it's let say an Company size unit.

But when a unit with the capabilities of a combat brigade jumps sides, that is a huge tactical as well as strategic  event.

Now, consider the intelligence value of such a unit.

Think of the knowledge a brigade level headquarters element would have of area operations?

Knowledge is power and this is never more true than in combat.

If this really happened as this story indicates, then a major step has been taken towards the ever feared, and in my opinion already here.. Civil War.

Let's see if this story pops up again soon.

Let's see if Al Jazeera covers it.

Don't underestimate what this might mean to the crisis in Syria!!!!

Oh, and it's not good news... not in terms of increased violence.

As a reminder... A Syrian brigade is not the same structure or size wise as a typical US or NATO unit, but that is lost in the strategic value of this possible event.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=273357

NO PROGRESS????? NO KIDDING!!!!

As much as Putin would love to be the hero of the hour at the next round of talks in Moscow, it seems the Iranians didn't get the message.

With a statement like, " No Progress", coming from the IAEA's chief inspector, the stage may be set for the Moscow talks in ten days.

What will be interesting is Putins' reaction to this announcement.

I have to wonder if he has made a phone call to Tehran reemphasizing his desires for the next round of talks.

Iran needs Russia and needs them desperately.

Russia needs to show the world they can solve worldly issues such as Iran's nuclear program and Syria and a headstrong Iran will not go over well with the Tsar!

The Iranians know the US wants nothing but smooth water between now and November, but after that, all bets  are off.

Iran must juggle the nuclear issue with the crisis in Syria without letting ether issue come to conflict, unless it's a conflict Iran wants!

Somewhere in this mess is Lebanon and the Lebanese Hezbollah teams we all know are out there right now plotting to attack and probably soon.

When it comes to the Middle East, no issue is a standalone event right now.

As much as Putin and the Iranians would love to talk about what great breakthrough the talks in Moscow are going to be, and trust me, that is what they will both say, the fact of the matter is, nothing is going to change.

The US leadership wants any and all issues to hold off until after November.

Somebody better get that message to the Lebanese Hezbollah!

We are one mass casualty, Israeli causality, event away from conflict.

Israel knows they are being pushed to respond, but it's leadership will not stand for a media event that covers a large loss of innocent lives.

The "Moscow Show" is only ten days away!!!

The headlines are already written in Tehran and Moscow...

I really hope nobody is foolish enough to believe this event will lead to anything.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18370334

OK.. WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF A " CIVIL WAR"?????

Let's look at what's going on in Syria as of today and see if we can figure out why all the so called "experts" believe Syria "may be heading for a Civil War, when it appears to most of the world they are already well into one.

I found this article that basically asked the same question about Iraq back in 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4902708.stm

After thinking about this issue and reviewing what took place in Iraq and what is taking place in Syria, there is one very logical reason why Iraq was never really a "Civil War"...

The Coalition Forces!

It's hard to have a civil war when one side has a collection of highly developed military units on it's side, especially when those forces are from other nations to include a Super Power.. the most powerful Super Power.

So, does this mean without intervention in Syria, Syria is heading for a so called " Civil War"?

Again, in my opinion, they are already there and have been for months.

I'm not sure what the academic talking heads will say, but most of us who have watched a city or a town get bombarded by artillery, attack helicopters and heavy armor, well.. we have a different opinion..

Lets come to terms and lets hope the UN can come to reality....

Syria is in a Civil War and the flames are burning closer and closer to the fuel stored in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and yes... Iran....

I've said this before and I will say it again..

What is the cost of no intervention and what is the cost of intervention?

If we don't figure these two questions out very quickly, they will find their own answers and we will all have to live with the results.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/06/02/Annan-warns-Syria-heading-for-civil-war/UPI-36471338675601/