THE WORLD ECONOMY.. SYRIA AND IRAN.

This topic could get far too complex to keep anyone's real attention, so let's see how we can make this  simple.

The First Question:

Will the downturn in Europe's economy and possibly the rest of the free market world lead to Syria and Iran surviving the pressures they are under?

The distraction of economic disruption, one so saver the risk of wide spread violence in countries other than Greece, can easily make key leaders hesitant to commit to additional " problems"; and that is exactly what Syria is to Europe right now.... an additional problem!

If it was hard before the risk of the EU falling apart to deal with the Syrian issue, it is close to impossible now.

The problem is.. Assad and Iran know this!

 The sound of economic turmoil in Europe is music to the ears of Iran's leaders.

Twenty-five percent unemployment... Government's failing to form and pending elections in not only Europe,  but the US as well, only embolden Assad and Iran.

Simply put, the Syrian issue is no longer a " front burner" topic.

The Second Question:

Does this same economic crisis take the heat off of Iran?

No!

Iran would be making a drastic mistake to assume the world is too distracted by the pending second round of economic events.

It's not the "World" Iran needs to worry about!

In reality, the opposite is true for Iran.

An world economic crisis will only show the Israeli leadership they may have to act on their own.

Countries are breaking the "embargo" plan on Iran left and right and the US seems to be writing everyone a " wavier" plan to keep them happy.

This can only mean one thing, the Israeli leadership realizing the embargo concept is not going to work.

Iran may openly think the pain of economic collapse is a well deserved punishment for Europe and the West.

They need to realize an distracted West equates into a desperate and lethal Israel.

So, one man's pleasure.. Syria / Assad / knowing the European economics may help him survive, is another man's pain... Iran see Israel convinced they must act alone.

It's just that simple. 

AHMADINEJAD AS THE "BAD GUY" ONCE AGAIN.

The Persian Nationalist, Ahmadinejad.. AKA.. the Mad Genie.. continues to be the brunt of bad news in Iran.

In a week where his followers continued to take a pounding in elections, a rumor hits the streets about something as sensitive as gasoline prices, a topic that hits to the heart of the average Iranian citizen.

It remains clear the clerical leadership of Iran intends on placing all " bad news' on the shoulders of Ahmadinejad.

As I have referred to several times in the past, the idea of the Fundamentalist making Ahmadinejad the target of blame for all things wrong in Iran is a deliberate  plan that is well thought out.

Given this fact, it comes as no surprise that "rumors" would surface, shortly after the local elections, on how Ahmadinejad is planning to bring pain to the common people.

As I have said before; Ahmadinejad is a Persian Nationalist and that flies in the face of what the Fundamentalist see as the future of Iran.

Internal conflict and the opportunities that might bring the West and  Israel cannot be overlooked.

Again, as I have said in the past, the danger with this "opportunity" is the fact a paranoid and desperate Iran is a dangerous Iran.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=89548

JORDAN??? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Jordan's King Abdullah has been like a firefighter in a wind storm for the past year.

His efforts to keep the lid on "issues" in Jordan have been truly been a daunting task.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood has had it's eye on the countries leadership from the very beginning of the Arab Spring.

Why is this such a potential issue for the West and particularly the U.S?

Simple, the most " off the radar" partner the West and the US have had since the morning of September 11th 2001 has been Jordan.

All parties involved have done a better than average job of keeping this " partnership / alliance / form being too well known.

I can personally state that the West and the US have no better ally in the Middle East than King Abdullah.

He has always understood this relationship was not to his advantage out in the open public and he has worked hared to keep just the right level of quiet balance.

Here is the problem; those that wish to take power in Jordan know just how close this relationship really is.

From day one of the Arab Spring, King Abdullah has been placed in the category of

 " Monarch Friend of the West".

King Abdullah's struggles to keep the lid on the Jordanian public has become an every increasing impossibility.

Stacked on top of this fact is the reality the US could very well chose to abandon him as soon as the first street protest turns truly violent.

He watched Egypt and Libya virtually holding his breath.

He listen and talked to Saudi and the GCC on the topic of the US walking away from long time friendships... Remember the discussions of Jordan joining the GCC?

The King finds himself in a very....very... .dangerous position with little expectation of support from the West.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and other enemies of Jordan... Iran... know all too well the formula for " Abandonment" is based on civilian bloodshed.

The region has two new targets... Jordan and Bahrain.

Not new in the sense of trouble, but new in terms of commitments to cause trouble.

What is truly fascinating is who is set to cause this trouble.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood.. the same Brotherhood who is out to bring down the Government in Syria... Sunni..   and Iran.. the government hell bent to keep the government of Syria in power.

Confusing????

Yes!!

That is the Middle East!

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=268726

  

INTERESTING TWIST ... SAUDI AND THE BROTHERHOOD.

So what comes first in the Middle East; religion or blood?

The Brotherhood, with it's origins in the Sunni faith, must come to the King in order to make peace?

Does the Brotherhood have the same "vision" the Saudi Royal Family has?

Do Egyptians think like Arabs.... A band of Arabs the Egyptians looked down their collective noses at for thousands of years until oil became a commodity.

Does the Brotherhood really march to the drum of the Sunni faith?

So just how strong is this Muslim faith?

Do all Sunnis or all Shias think alike?

Of course not!!!!

Religion in the Middle East is what it has been for thousands of years all over the world, the excuse to force one's beliefs on others.... the tool of expansion.. not of true believers, but of exploitative leaders.

So, understanding the Muslim faith is not unlike other religions such as the Christians.. Catholics, is it so hard to believe the Sunni are at odds with each other?

The vision of Saudi is not the vision of Egypt and the Sunni faith is just the believable cover story.

For months now, must of us have heard how the Sunni faith was on its way to overtaking the Muslim faith... the "Islamist are going to take over"!!!

What this trip proves is what some of us have known all the time.

The Sunni armor is not impenetrable!

The bloodlines of the Middle east run deeper than the religion and this meeting proves that point.

  

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=89332

THE DANGER OF PERCEPTION!!!

Anytime the IDF does a   "Call up" it is bound to make people take notice, especially those who might be at the other end of the IDF weaponry.

Not the first time this has happened, but this is not the usual way this

process takes place.

The people who are tasked to watch what is going on in Israel.. spies... have a very detailed list of things to look for when judging if Israel is preparing for conflict.

Fuel... munitions.. hospitals.. schools.. and the list goes on an on..

So, does this mean Israel is edging closer to conflict?

In a time of heightened tensions and paranoia, this action could lead to non

typical reactions.

The concept of "masking" a buildup is nothing new in the region....

Six Battalions doesn't sound like much to the US, but the real message is

the approval for the other 16.

Most will not buy the story of placing additional units along the Sinai

border given the lower level of operational, tactical readiness of the

reserve units.

If they are 'backfill" units for active units being repositioned, that is

not a long term answer to a long term problem.

Simply put, it will not make sense to Israel's enemies.... they won't buy

it.

Another aspect of this announcement should catch everyone's eye.

No mention of Iran!!

This "action" is being based on troubles potentially stemming from Sinai and Syria, or so the storyline goes.

Again, I go back to my comment about " Masking".

If the "message" is not for Iran, then who is it for?

It's a known fact when it comes to Nation States sending, "messages", the target of the message is often not mentioned.

I believe this call up to be a classic example of that theory.

The Israel government had to have anticipated the media coverage this event

would generate and so the message is imbedded in the "message".

These are not normal times in the Middle East and actions that have appeared

" normal" in the past can and most likely will be interpreted incorrectly.

Are we edging closer to conflict in the Middle East?

I would say it is safe to say we are not pulling away from one!

http://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-approves-call-up-of-22-idf-battalions/

MAY 2012  "SNAPSHOT".

I was off the radar the last two weeks with a death in the family, but I'm back up to speed now and ready to muddle my way through the ever increasing maze called the Middle East.

To keep things simple, I will attempt to look at the major issues and then spend the rest of the month diving into the more complex details.

EGYPT:

One of the most interesting issues that may not be at the forefront of the news right now is Egypt.

The second most seasoned " Post Arab Spring" event is proving a point some made over a year ago.

It was and continues to be a naive assumption to believe the results of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus... yes.. I still call it that... will be the same for each country impacted.

What has not changed in Egypt is the fact the initial "Revolution" was hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood.

What is now more than just interesting, is the sudden struggle the MB finds itself in to keep control of the events in Egypt.

The art of "double-cross"  was perfected in the Middle East thousands of years ago and it's alive and well in 2012.

The Egyptian Military's attempt to ultimately continue a " Business as usual" government by making backdoor agreements with the MB have proven to be evenly matched by the MB's skillcraft of " Double Cross".

When two potential " partners" have no intention of living up to a handshake promise, then the speed of betrayal becomes more than both sides can deal with.

Egypt is a fascinating case study of who can out maneuver who; with all sides totally aware other issues in the region have the world's attention.

One theory I've been kicking around for the past few weeks is based upon the MB becoming too confident everything was going to go their way.

Master Betrayers are never ready for being betrayed!!!

Egypt will not grab the spotlight anytime soon, but the nations in the region cannot afford to not pay attention to the ever changing scorecard.... Turkey and Israel may not say much right now, but they are deep into working the Egyptian event.

SYRIA:

It remains the primary story in the region for no other reason than the body count.

I say this because the Iranian / Israel issue continues to be the most dangerous topic, but the media has blood to film and that keeps them occupied.

The Syrian military has had time to adjust  to the type of Warfare it's facing and their " helpers" the Iranians, are doing a great job of keeping Syria's head above water.

The world still has no appetite for open conflict with Syria and untimely Iran at the same time and those being killed in Syria may or may not understand this.

What has changed in Syria is striking familiar .. From Tunisia.. to Egypt .. to Libya.. the same event has begun in Syria.

The conflict is being Hijacked and AQI / Al-Qaeda in Iraq.. leads the kidnapping plot!!!

Freedom.. as it was in other countries... may have been the initial battle cry.. but that has been lost and I'm afraid lost for good!

Who's behind the AQI and like groups showing up in Syria is a topic for debate.

Most will argue Syria is becoming nothing more than a proxy battleground for the Saudi's and the Iranians.

How true this is will be judged by the actions over the next few months.

One thing is for sure... .the idea of young.. free Syrian people just wanting a better life is no longer the goal or the issue.

IRAN:

It is impossible to look at the "issue" of Iran and not go back to everything I've been talking about on this post.

It's time to say it again... so I will...

Iran cannot accept losing Syria.. thus losing Hezbollah operations in Lebanon...

Iran will do whatever it takes to keep it's hold on Syria and that would include turning it's back on the Russian Tsar / Putin.

I said I would keep this "snapshot" simple, so here is the short answer on Iran.

If Syria begins to fall out of Iranian influence, then Iran will do whatever it takes to keep it or punish the region.. to include a regional war.

There is no future of the Iranian / Persian dream without the proxy fighters based out of Syria and Lebanon.

Look for Iran to execute the tactic of, " If I can't have it.. nobody can"!!

If anyone understands this threat, it's Israel.

If the world is waiting for Israel to attack Iran, it is watching for the wrong trigger.

Syria's future is the trigger... a trigger to a regional war...no holds barred! 

 

WORLD EVENTS ARE NEVER DETERMINED BY  FELLOWS!

I'm sure Dr Brahimi is a very intelligent individual, but she simply misses the mark with this editorial.

As I said last night, the future of Syria no longer belongs to the people of Syria.

She is correct when she states the reluctance for the Western world to take action on Syria is based upon who Syria is affiliated with.

Although she took four paragraphs to say it, she seemed to comprehend the issue is Iran.

Unless I misread what this " Fellows" Doctorial "expert said, I simply cannot agree with the concept the people of Lebanon will decide to stay indifferent.

Indifference, when it comes to violence, is based upon individual danger.

If the people of Lebanon feel their lives are truly in danger because of the events in Syria, they will not stay indifferent.

Yes, they are no strangers to violence and none of them truly believe hard times will never come to Lebanon again.

What the author of this article again fails to realize is Lebanon, like Syria, will not be allowed to make decisions for it's own people.

The people of Lebanon, like the people of Syria, will not make the final judgment to turn to violence or not to turn to violence.

"Others"... Insert Iran... Saudi... here... will shape the future of both nations.

As I said last night, the concept of a regional war between Sunni, Shia,.... Arab.. Persian... is the real issue here and as a mater of fact, the author event hints to that in her last paragraph.

What is taking place more and more in the Middle East. Syria.. Lebanon.. Bahrain.. Yemen.. is no longer an issue of disgruntled, citizens..

It is a regional proxy war... a war that will get worse before it gets better.

A war that will test the true resolve of a war weary nation called the US.

A nation that is heading into a election cycle with no appetite for yet another conflict.

What the author  missed here, is her understanding of just how dangerous the region has become.

The so called " ceasefire" is a wishful theory by those who have the luxury of living inside the walls of a University.  

Keep writing.. keep getting paid... for that is what this story is really all about!!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/04/2012416132131379581.html