MAY 2012 "SNAPSHOT".
I was off the radar the last two weeks with a death in the
family, but I'm back up to speed now and ready to muddle my way through the
ever increasing maze called the Middle East .
To keep things simple, I will attempt to look at the major
issues and then spend the rest of the month diving into the more complex
details.
One of the most interesting issues that may not be at the
forefront of the news right now is Egypt .
The second most seasoned " Post Arab Spring" event
is proving a point some made over a year ago.
It was and continues to be a naive assumption to believe the
results of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus... yes.. I still call it that... will
be the same for each country impacted.
What has not changed in Egypt is the fact the initial
"Revolution" was hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood.
What is now more than just interesting, is the sudden
struggle the MB finds itself in to keep control of the events in Egypt .
The art of "double-cross" was perfected in the Middle
East thousands of years ago and it's alive and well in 2012.
The Egyptian Military's attempt to ultimately continue a "
Business as usual" government by making backdoor agreements with the MB
have proven to be evenly matched by the MB's skillcraft of " Double
Cross".
When two potential " partners" have no intention
of living up to a handshake promise, then the speed of betrayal becomes more
than both sides can deal with.
One theory I've been kicking around for the past few weeks
is based upon the MB becoming too confident everything was going to go their
way.
Master Betrayers are never ready for being betrayed!!!
It remains the primary story in the region for no other
reason than the body count.
I say this because the Iranian / Israel issue continues to be the
most dangerous topic, but the media has blood to film and that keeps them
occupied.
The Syrian military has had time to adjust to the type of Warfare it's facing and their
" helpers" the Iranians, are doing a great job of keeping Syria 's head
above water.
The world still has no appetite for open conflict with Syria and untimely Iran
at the same time and those being killed in Syria may or may not understand
this.
What has changed in Syria is striking familiar .. From Tunisia .. to Egypt .. to Libya .. the
same event has begun in Syria .
The conflict is being Hijacked and AQI / Al-Qaeda in Iraq .. leads
the kidnapping plot!!!
Freedom.. as it was in other countries... may have been the
initial battle cry.. but that has been lost and I'm afraid lost for good!
Who's behind the AQI and like groups showing up in Syria is a
topic for debate.
Most will argue Syria is becoming nothing more than
a proxy battleground for the Saudi's and the Iranians.
How true this is will be judged by the actions over the next
few months.
One thing is for sure... .the idea of young.. free Syrian
people just wanting a better life is no longer the goal or the issue.
It is impossible to look at the "issue" of Iran and not go
back to everything I've been talking about on this post.
It's time to say it again... so I will...
Iran will do whatever it takes to keep it's hold on Syria
and that would include turning it's back on the Russian Tsar / Putin.
I said I would keep this "snapshot" simple, so
here is the short answer on Iran .
If Syria
begins to fall out of Iranian influence, then Iran will do whatever it takes to keep
it or punish the region.. to include a regional war.
There is no future of the Iranian / Persian dream without the
proxy fighters based out of Syria
and Lebanon .
Look for Iran
to execute the tactic of, " If I can't have it.. nobody can"!!
If anyone understands this threat, it's Israel .
If the world is waiting for Israel
to attack Iran ,
it is watching for the wrong trigger.
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