THE DANGER OF PERCEPTION!!!

Anytime the IDF does a   "Call up" it is bound to make people take notice, especially those who might be at the other end of the IDF weaponry.

Not the first time this has happened, but this is not the usual way this

process takes place.

The people who are tasked to watch what is going on in Israel.. spies... have a very detailed list of things to look for when judging if Israel is preparing for conflict.

Fuel... munitions.. hospitals.. schools.. and the list goes on an on..

So, does this mean Israel is edging closer to conflict?

In a time of heightened tensions and paranoia, this action could lead to non

typical reactions.

The concept of "masking" a buildup is nothing new in the region....

Six Battalions doesn't sound like much to the US, but the real message is

the approval for the other 16.

Most will not buy the story of placing additional units along the Sinai

border given the lower level of operational, tactical readiness of the

reserve units.

If they are 'backfill" units for active units being repositioned, that is

not a long term answer to a long term problem.

Simply put, it will not make sense to Israel's enemies.... they won't buy

it.

Another aspect of this announcement should catch everyone's eye.

No mention of Iran!!

This "action" is being based on troubles potentially stemming from Sinai and Syria, or so the storyline goes.

Again, I go back to my comment about " Masking".

If the "message" is not for Iran, then who is it for?

It's a known fact when it comes to Nation States sending, "messages", the target of the message is often not mentioned.

I believe this call up to be a classic example of that theory.

The Israel government had to have anticipated the media coverage this event

would generate and so the message is imbedded in the "message".

These are not normal times in the Middle East and actions that have appeared

" normal" in the past can and most likely will be interpreted incorrectly.

Are we edging closer to conflict in the Middle East?

I would say it is safe to say we are not pulling away from one!

http://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-approves-call-up-of-22-idf-battalions/

MAY 2012  "SNAPSHOT".

I was off the radar the last two weeks with a death in the family, but I'm back up to speed now and ready to muddle my way through the ever increasing maze called the Middle East.

To keep things simple, I will attempt to look at the major issues and then spend the rest of the month diving into the more complex details.

EGYPT:

One of the most interesting issues that may not be at the forefront of the news right now is Egypt.

The second most seasoned " Post Arab Spring" event is proving a point some made over a year ago.

It was and continues to be a naive assumption to believe the results of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus... yes.. I still call it that... will be the same for each country impacted.

What has not changed in Egypt is the fact the initial "Revolution" was hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood.

What is now more than just interesting, is the sudden struggle the MB finds itself in to keep control of the events in Egypt.

The art of "double-cross"  was perfected in the Middle East thousands of years ago and it's alive and well in 2012.

The Egyptian Military's attempt to ultimately continue a " Business as usual" government by making backdoor agreements with the MB have proven to be evenly matched by the MB's skillcraft of " Double Cross".

When two potential " partners" have no intention of living up to a handshake promise, then the speed of betrayal becomes more than both sides can deal with.

Egypt is a fascinating case study of who can out maneuver who; with all sides totally aware other issues in the region have the world's attention.

One theory I've been kicking around for the past few weeks is based upon the MB becoming too confident everything was going to go their way.

Master Betrayers are never ready for being betrayed!!!

Egypt will not grab the spotlight anytime soon, but the nations in the region cannot afford to not pay attention to the ever changing scorecard.... Turkey and Israel may not say much right now, but they are deep into working the Egyptian event.

SYRIA:

It remains the primary story in the region for no other reason than the body count.

I say this because the Iranian / Israel issue continues to be the most dangerous topic, but the media has blood to film and that keeps them occupied.

The Syrian military has had time to adjust  to the type of Warfare it's facing and their " helpers" the Iranians, are doing a great job of keeping Syria's head above water.

The world still has no appetite for open conflict with Syria and untimely Iran at the same time and those being killed in Syria may or may not understand this.

What has changed in Syria is striking familiar .. From Tunisia.. to Egypt .. to Libya.. the same event has begun in Syria.

The conflict is being Hijacked and AQI / Al-Qaeda in Iraq.. leads the kidnapping plot!!!

Freedom.. as it was in other countries... may have been the initial battle cry.. but that has been lost and I'm afraid lost for good!

Who's behind the AQI and like groups showing up in Syria is a topic for debate.

Most will argue Syria is becoming nothing more than a proxy battleground for the Saudi's and the Iranians.

How true this is will be judged by the actions over the next few months.

One thing is for sure... .the idea of young.. free Syrian people just wanting a better life is no longer the goal or the issue.

IRAN:

It is impossible to look at the "issue" of Iran and not go back to everything I've been talking about on this post.

It's time to say it again... so I will...

Iran cannot accept losing Syria.. thus losing Hezbollah operations in Lebanon...

Iran will do whatever it takes to keep it's hold on Syria and that would include turning it's back on the Russian Tsar / Putin.

I said I would keep this "snapshot" simple, so here is the short answer on Iran.

If Syria begins to fall out of Iranian influence, then Iran will do whatever it takes to keep it or punish the region.. to include a regional war.

There is no future of the Iranian / Persian dream without the proxy fighters based out of Syria and Lebanon.

Look for Iran to execute the tactic of, " If I can't have it.. nobody can"!!

If anyone understands this threat, it's Israel.

If the world is waiting for Israel to attack Iran, it is watching for the wrong trigger.

Syria's future is the trigger... a trigger to a regional war...no holds barred! 

 

WORLD EVENTS ARE NEVER DETERMINED BY  FELLOWS!

I'm sure Dr Brahimi is a very intelligent individual, but she simply misses the mark with this editorial.

As I said last night, the future of Syria no longer belongs to the people of Syria.

She is correct when she states the reluctance for the Western world to take action on Syria is based upon who Syria is affiliated with.

Although she took four paragraphs to say it, she seemed to comprehend the issue is Iran.

Unless I misread what this " Fellows" Doctorial "expert said, I simply cannot agree with the concept the people of Lebanon will decide to stay indifferent.

Indifference, when it comes to violence, is based upon individual danger.

If the people of Lebanon feel their lives are truly in danger because of the events in Syria, they will not stay indifferent.

Yes, they are no strangers to violence and none of them truly believe hard times will never come to Lebanon again.

What the author of this article again fails to realize is Lebanon, like Syria, will not be allowed to make decisions for it's own people.

The people of Lebanon, like the people of Syria, will not make the final judgment to turn to violence or not to turn to violence.

"Others"... Insert Iran... Saudi... here... will shape the future of both nations.

As I said last night, the concept of a regional war between Sunni, Shia,.... Arab.. Persian... is the real issue here and as a mater of fact, the author event hints to that in her last paragraph.

What is taking place more and more in the Middle East. Syria.. Lebanon.. Bahrain.. Yemen.. is no longer an issue of disgruntled, citizens..

It is a regional proxy war... a war that will get worse before it gets better.

A war that will test the true resolve of a war weary nation called the US.

A nation that is heading into a election cycle with no appetite for yet another conflict.

What the author  missed here, is her understanding of just how dangerous the region has become.

The so called " ceasefire" is a wishful theory by those who have the luxury of living inside the walls of a University.  

Keep writing.. keep getting paid... for that is what this story is really all about!!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/04/2012416132131379581.html

WHO  WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE OF SYRIA?

These two articles, sent to me by a friend, point to a larger issue.

Has Syria turned into a proxy event, just as some of us predicted?

Here is why I believe this statement to be true:

It appears Syria is growing more important to the Gulf Arabs than it is to

the people of Syria.

Let's to the " assumption formula" and see what conclusion we might come up with.

Let's assume the Gulf states / GCC / have come to the realization the West,

mainly the US, will not take action against Iran.. at least not until after

November of this year... (Perception in the Middle East.)

Let's assume the Gulf Arabs / GCC / now believe Israel cannot execute this

mission without the support of the West. ( Again. Perception)

Let's assume the Saudi Royal Family has determined the Sunni / Shia /

conflict concept is a viable way to counter a pending Arab Spring event.

(Create an outside threat.. classic Government 101).

Let's assume the Gulf Arabs understand the value of strategically destroying

the alliance between Syria and Iran..

Let's assume the Gulf Arabs comprehend the advantage of pulling Lebanon away

from Syria and Iran; thus limiting Hezbollah!

Let's assume the Gulf Arabs envision the Ottomans' having to take on the

brunt of a "proxy" war with Iran, instead of Iran fighting a "proxy" war

with Israel utilizing Gaza and Lebanon.

Let's assume the Sunni Arabs / Saudi / sees a post Iranian / Persian/ region

as a excellent opportunity for "Sunni" dominance.

They have come to these realizations because they continue to ponder the

potential for an Arab Spring environment coming to their countries..

Something Iran would surly support... Just ask them!

The point here is simple....

The events in Syria seem  no longer  to be an issue for the people of Syria.

Judging the capabilities of the SNC or the FSA is not going to yield the

forecast of what is going to take place in Syria.

Disorganized leadership on the part of the Opposition is not a factor to the

Gulf Arabs.

Syria is exactly what some predicted it would become.. the "proxy"

battleground for Sunni / Shia / Arab / Persian/ Ottoman/  dominance of the

region.

The real question becomes, does it become a campaign issue for the US?

Banking on holding off a war with Iran until after November of 2012, may not

be the road to success some believe it to be!

Wouldn't I love to be inside the IDF planning cell right about now:)

http://themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=34935

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ND06Ak01.html

ONE BIZARRE TRIANGLE!

Ok, I had to read this twice before I really accepted it was a true story.

Let me see if I get this straight... The Russian Tsar.. A Terrorist Leader and a Leftwing Rapist?

Now, I've seen some strange "working relationships" in my lifetime, but this one is near the top of the list.

We all know this is a classic example of the old saying, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", but let's take a closer look at this love triangle.

First off, this guy Assange is just a strange Duck!!!

When you look at him, he just makes the hair on the back of your neck stand up!

Date Rape drugs and computer geeks... yep.. he fits the profile.

He's a dedicated  US / Western Capitalism hater.. with the exception of the night clubs owned by well meaning Capitalist where he loves to hang out.. Yep... a real zealot ..

Lets stop right here for a moment and ask a simple question...... Where do you think this idiot will end up if Hezbollah became the leader of the land he lived in?

A drinker.. A womanizer.. a Non-believer...????

Yep... Off with his head!!!

Nasrallah looks at this fool like any other left leaning dreamer who thinks the right thing to do is side with anyone who is against the US and the West.

He is a small Lamb being told to hide amongst the Wolves called Hezbollah!

Ok, now let's look at why the Russian Tsar would want anything to do with Assange?

Simple, is the same thing for the Tsar as he is for Hezbollah... a tool to be utilized and then tossed aside.

Given him a voice on Russian media is simply a thorn in the side of the US.

And last but not least.... the Peace maker Hassan Nasrallah!!! You really can't make this stuff up.....

I can just imagine the phone call between Hassan and the SNC leadership...

" Hellow.. this is Hassan Nasrallah and I would like your movement to come meet with myself and Assad to talk about your future"?

Really?????

I have to wonder who Hassan actually thought would buy this story or was he just making an idiot out of Assange and his new show?

One thing is absolutely for sure..... this is one of the most warped... perverted.. combinations of ideologies and players I think I have ever seen!!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88713

ASSASSINS IN LEBANON.. A FOLLOW UP REVIEW.

A very good friend and I have been reading and talking about this botched

assassination attempt and how it could impact the region.

The big picture issue continues to be the destabilization of Lebanon at a

time when the region cannot afford one more ounce of trouble.

Simply put, the Syrian fingerprints on this attempt are there.

Iranian fingerprints are right next to the Syrian prints.

The real concern over this attempt is the theory that Iran is more and more

worried the Sunni faction in Lebanon may take advantage of the Syrian crisis

to regain power in Lebanon... As if the STL /UN / court case was not

worrying them enough..

Showing the Christians, who lean natural to pro Shia  / Hezbollah / that

they are in danger is a ploy to place them back in the Sunni camp thus

weakening the current, pro- Iranian  / Syrian / government.

Short answer; the March 14th movement making a bid to get the Christians

back on their side.

Attempting to assassinate someone like Geagea is a bold and desperate move.

As a reminder; Iran, as they face a potential conflict with Israel, cannot

accept a loss of Hezbollah operations in Lebanon.

Iran cannot accept the fall of Assad in Syria for the same reason.

Anyone who believes Iran's paranoia is based solely on its nuclear program

doesn't understand what is taking place in the region.

Geagea Warns March 14 in Eye of the Storm

 

12 April 2012

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea told March 14 opposition officials that

Christians in Lebanon would have suffered from the consequences of his

assassination if snipers succeeded in killing him.

Al-Liwaa daily on Thursday quoted Geagea as saying in his address to the

officials during their large-scale meeting at his residence in Maarab that

"March 14 is in the eye of the storm." "We should all be aware of that and

act in this regard," he said. The LF chief also put his assassination

attempt within the framework of the "big confrontation taking place in the

region."

Had the snipers shot him, the incident "would have had dangerous

repercussions on the Christian presence in Lebanon." "The battle that the

Syrian regime and its allies are fighting is a final battle of either

killing or be killed," the sources of the conferees quoted Geagea as saying.

The LF chief urged March 14 to find serious and thoughtful ways to confront

the battle that could last for a couple of months or a year or two, the

sources told al-Liwaa.

LF MP Antoine Zahra also told Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) that "the

government's different sides" have taken the decision to resume the attacks

on Lebanese opposition personalities. The March 14 coalition said following

its Maarab meeting on Wednesday that the government should repeal a decision

preventing the Internal Security Forces from accessing what is known as the

telecom data which it believes would help in the probe of Geagea's attempted

murder. According to al-Liwaa, the statement was drafted by a committee that

included MPs George Adwan and Ammar Houry, former lawmaker Elias Atallah and

Marwan Saqr from the Democratic Renewal Movement of ex-MP Nassib Lahoud, who

died in February.

The movement returned to its membership in the March 14 forces, al-Liwaa

said. The Phalange party was also present to throw his support behind Geagea

although it wasn't participating in the meetings of the March 14

general-secretariat. The party's leader Amin Gemayel and his son MP Sami

Gemayel did not attend the gathering but lawmaker Elie Marouni was present.

Meanwhile, informed sources said that investigators have found new evidence

in their probe into Geagea's assassination attempt. They are carrying out

tests on pieces of cloths and an empty bottle found in the vicinity of the

area where snipers shot at Geagea as he was walking in the garden of his

fortified residence. Investigators are also probing the movement of suspects

from and to the area where the snipers were located, the sources told

al-Liwaa

APRIL 10TH PASSES.... NOW WHAT???

Anyone that was holding their breath for Assad to stop killing his own people as he agreed to is simply out of touch with reality.

All day long today, the real question remained, " now what"?

Does the situation get worse and if so how?

I can't look into a crystal ball and forecast the next move over Syria, but I can point out an issue that needs to be addressed.

For weeks now, many of the media " experts" have made reference to Syria's " key Ally" Russia!!

Time and time again the argument has been made, if Russia turns it's back on Assad, his days are numbered.

Again and again..... the storyline continued to be based on Russia being the backbone of Assad.

It's simply not true!

When you say Russia, you need to think Putin and when you say Putin, you need to be thinking about Russia not Syria.

Simply put, Russia's support for Assad is based on what Putin thinks he and Russia.. although I am convinced he truly believes he is Russia...

If you look at my past post, you will see where I have addressed the issue of Putin's / Russia plans for Syria and Assad.

Putin will leave Assad to the wolves the second it is to his advantage to do so!

He is what a man like Putin understands!

The longer he holds out.. and the longer the West is desperate for the Syrian issue to deescalate... the higher the demands Putin can make.

If you follow my logic, then you have to ask yourself, what does Putin really want and who does he want it from?

If there is a price for Russia's / Putin's / change of heart, then what is it?

Oil!!

I've said it before and I will say it again..

It's oil....

There are pipelines and oil deals that Putin supports from the area and there are pipelines and oil deals in the area that he doesn't support.

Turkey's pipeline projects do not fit into Putin's Master Plan or not as they currently are executing.

Turkey knows this all too well and so does anyone in the oil industry.

Putin  is not supporting Assad just because he wishes to poke the West in the eye.

He doesn't have time for mindless / endless political games.

He is a man on a mission to rebuild the Russian Empire and the Tzar is an impatient individual.

Ok, what does this mean?

The world needs Russia to back away from Assad.

The world knows the oil issue.

So.... ask yourself... what deals can be offered to Putin and who can offer them?

Problem... when you offer things.. someone else usually comes up on the short side of the deal.

Who is that going to be?

Turkey?

Saudi?

In the meantime, the killing will go on and unfortunately  might even get worse.

If it does, the pressure to come to terms with the Tzar of Russia will only grow and trust me when I tell you he knows this.

Is Russian worried about the court of World opinion?

Hell no!!! when have the ever worried about public opinion?

Here comes the real problem.

I am very confident Russia / The Tzar / has underestimated the Iranian resolve in the Syrian equation.

The problem with looking down your nose at someone... as the Russian do with Iran.. is you tend to underestimate their resolve.

Russia's support to Assad is about Russia  and not the region and surly not about looking like a world leader.

Underestimating Iran, in my opinion, is exactly what the Russians have done!

As soon as Russia comes to understand this, the price for support may change.

Yes... Syria remains the most complicated issue for the modern world to deal with.

The North Koreans are about to shift the world's attention off of Syria for several days if not more.

That will give Assad ample time to really up the tally on bodies littering the streets of his own country.

It's a complicated world and injustice is a common theme!

Let's see what the next move is.. but it better happen before North Korea steals the spotlight.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88375