AGENDA AND SIDES!! YOU MAY NEED A SCORECARD!!

With less than two weeks before the attempted vote on the PA statehood issue, I say attempted given many are trying to stop the vote from taking place, I think it is interesting to look at how the typical instigators, agitators, may line up.

Hamas:

            Not crazy about the vote and probably under orders by the Muslim Brotherhood, their new again handlers, to limit protest violence this month.

I say they are probably under orders to not initiate violent events given the MB doesn't want to distract from the events in Syria.

Syria is the five meter target for the MB / SMB / and violence in Israel and Gaza is a distraction not in the play book for taking down Assad and Syria.

Taking on the PA issue is something they will accomplish when the time is right for the MB not for Iran or Radical Fundamentalist.

Hezbollah:

            The Iranian Puppet organization has it's marching orders and the question becomes to what level does Iran wish to take the PA issue?

Radical Islamist Groups:

            Anytime is a good time to create violence in Israel from their perspective.

            Hamas tries and will try to limit the actions of these groups, but if they plan to turn the UN vote issue into  a time of violence for Israel, Hamas will have a difficult time controlling what takes place.

Hamas's problem is Israel holds Hamas responsible for the actions of these groups given most operate out of Gaza.

Iran:

            So, does Iran pick this moment in time to have it's confrontation with Israel?

            I don't think so, at least not to the level of "total warfare".

            The problem becomes, as I have been saying, the level of reaction by Israel.

To put it simply, the MB and most other Arab Nations want the PA issue to be nothing more than another example of embarrassing Israel in the court of world opinion, thus Hamas will be sidelined in the event.

On the other hand, Iran wants and needs an event to save Assad from the court of world opinion, if he can be saved.

So, who has the upper hand?

Answer ....... Iran... Yep ....... bad news.

How can this be?

Iran can set actions in motion that prompt Israel to do what it seems to be in the habit of doing..... taking revenge on Hamas..

If Iran  has it's minions launch the violence from Gaza... Hamas will take the blame and the retaliation.

To put it simply, Iran has the ability to force the MB and the fence sitting Arab nations into some level of support for any violent acts against Israel.

If I understand this, you can bet the MB and the Arab League does as well and the pressure to prevent this series of events from taking place is huge.

The move is afoot to prevent the vote from taking place.

A movement and a strategy that in my opinion is bound to fail.

Iran and the " Violence  Card" has the absolute upper hand here and Israel knows it.

So what needs to be done?

Convince Israel to not to overreact to the violence.

The problem become Iran can simply turn up the heat until they get the reaction out of Israel they are desiring.

Yes... things are not looking good and the IDF Generals are starting to let the word out just how bad they think things could get...

It is all too possible Iran's quest to save Syria and Assad will lead to war in the Middle East.... even if Iran was not counting on it.

The days of September will get more and more important to track.

I have finished thinking about if this may happen and I am going to switch over to contemplating what will happen.

ISRAEL'S WARNING TO THE PALESTINIANS

DEBKA can have a tendency to embellish and that is not news to most of us.

Yet, this article, again, may be an example a small percentage of fact surround by a level of hype.

 Warning the Palestinians not to get out of control is one thing, but warning the Iranians at the same time must take place.

I have full confidence the word has been sent to Iran.

The question becomes, what how does Iran respond?

Time is running growing short when it comes to verbal warnings.

I would not be surprised if Israel gives some physical warning.

One can argue the distribution of Tear Gas and Stun Grenades falls into the category of a " warning".

I have all the confidence in the world the Palestinian authority understands the gravity of the coming events.

I have even more confidence that Iran understands this as well, but with a far different end state in mind.

The propensity for a miscalculation is extremely high. 

To say Israel is on a razor's edge is an understatement.

I want to express very clearly how dangerous events in the Middle East are becoming.

Miscalculation is the roadway to disaster.

Iran has a "vision" of how the Middle East should look.

Turkey has a  "vision" of how the Middle East should look.

Israel has a "vision" of how the Middle East should look.

Russian, China, Egypt, the US, France, the UN .. ect. ..ect.. ect.. all have "visions".

Who is working towards a common goal?

That is a real good question!

At the risk of sounding alarmist and repetitive, I will say this again.

September is going to be an extremely dangerous month for the Middle East.

Violence at some level is almost a absolute surety.

How it starts and how it is reacted to is going to set the course of events to follow.

Tuesday night, I will set what I believe will be the road to disaster.

I painted this picture back in April and much of it will sound failure.

What has changed is the level of intensity and the commitment of so called Allies.

http://www.debka.com/article/21273/

ISRAEL FACING THE " PERFECT STORM"?

As we get ready to end the first week in September,  a month that could prove critical not  only to Israel but the whole Middle East, it is clear a "Perfect Storm" scenario could be unfolding.

Mass protest movements become cable of critical mass when they link common causes that cross over typically diverse groups.

The economic realities of Israel combined with the emotional issue of Palestinian Statehood allows the enemies of Israel to mask their objectives without appearing as the obvious antagonizer.

What Israel's enemies, namely Iran, needs is a pre September 20th environment that allows members of the UN to vote at a time of high emotions.

It is the reason Israel is preparing for violent protest starting several days before the project vote on the 20th of September.

Common people taking to the streets may not stay in those streets when the issue is Palestinian statehood, but forcing the Israeli government to step from one crisis right into the next is a clear advantage to her enemies.

The stories of the IDF arming the Israeli public with tear gas and stun grenades were no accident.

For the IDF to not deny they were taking such action is even more compelling and plays directly into the Iranian plan.

Along with the pending protest violence in Israel, we now have, for reasons confusing to many, an increasing conflict between Turkey and Israel.

I don't believe for a single second Turkey would take any action that is advantageous for Iran.

So the issue of Turkey wishing to gain an apology from Israel at this moment in time is interesting.

It has to have everything to do with the UN vote, but the question becomes how and why.

No one believes Turkey is even remotely contemplating open conflict with Israel.

Turkey has taken great strides to paint a picture of being the regional peace maker and leader in conflict resolution.

To suddenly pick a fight ether politically or physically with Israel is not realistic.

So, what is Turkey doing?

If Turkey is not going to vote in favor of Palestinian membership in the UN, then it needs to show a strong anti Israel stance now and thus buy some collateral defense come UN vote time.

Having the ability to say, " the timing is simply not right, but we must continue to find resolution of this issue", is probably the end state Turkey is looking for.

I will repeat what I have been saying for weeks, months now, Turkey doesn't want a regional war, but Iran almost certainly must pursue one.

Turkey knows Iran's options for survival are limited and so they must stay out in front of the issue of Israeli... Palestinian statehood at all cost.

Like I have been saying all along... It's the Persian concept of the future Vs the Ottoman vision.

In between these two is the ageless issue of Palestine and the Jews.

September is going to heat up by the end of next week.

The only thing that might distract the media would be Syria or the anniversary of 9-11.

Iran can control one, Syria, but the can not control the second.

One thing is for sure, by the end of September, the Middle East will be a far different place than it is now and probably far more dangerous.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14777260



IRAN NOT DOING THE PALESTINIANS ANY FAVORS!!

This story brings up a great point, but only if we assume that Iran really cares about the Palestinian issue.

My vote is they could care less!

If the constant inflammatory talk by Iran is perceived as only adding fuel to the conservative side of the Israeli government, the classic example of “ I told you so”, then perhaps the  PA leadership should ask Iran to stop? ( Insert laughter here….)

Iran could care less about the whole PA issue.

If more Palestinians suddenly showed up in Iran, they would end up in camps just like their people in Syria and Jordan…

Stoking the flames of the Arabic world is all Iran cares about right now and up until the Arab Spring the only reason they made the effort was to buy time for their weapons program.

If Israel suddenly announced they were going to divide all their land in half, to include the water rights…. The real issue in the Middle East,  Iran would find a reason to refute the plan.

Here is the interesting part of this whole Iran… PA.. issue…. The PA knows Iran doesn’t care about them.

Palestinians are Arab and Iranians are Persian and if you don’t believe that is a core issue in the Middle East, than you are truly blind.

Buying time.. That is what Iran needs….

Now that the Arab Spring threatens all that Iran is dreaming of, the time issue becomes far more critical.

It’s September and we are probably two weeks away from unprecedented violence in Israel and her neighboring countries.

If Iran truly desires to push the PA statehood issue, it will be a real sign they are willing to bring violence and even war to the region, for that is how they may plan to avoid the Arab Spring.

If the PA statehood issue is not supported by Iran, then Iran has probably not chosen war for the region and that might mean they are far closer to the amount of time they need to build their nuclear weapons than anyone has realized.

If there is one thing the Arabs understand about the Persians, it’s the idea the Persians see them as future survents in the Persian Empire.

No real love in the Palestinian people for Iran and I’m simply not sure Palestinians are ready to ruin all they have and may have for the dreams of Persia!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=236210

OMINOUS SIGNS!

Two quick discussions tonight that have dangerous ramifications.

This article about a Syrian Official defecting and giving a statement as to what he has witnessed will play huge in the Middle East and probably has Iran steaming.

It’s one thing for some half crazed twenty year old to stand in front of a cell phone camera and rant about people shooting at them.

It is a much different pitch when a respected Official calmly stands in front of a camera and goes into great detail about what he has witnessed and why he can no longer support the government he has supported for years.

If the numbers he quoted are true, and I would bet they are, then the pressure on Assad is going to get much worse.

As I said earlier, this event is only further infuriating Iran and that leads to my second point of discussion tonight.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/08/2011831212956927978.html

Threats to Iran and Threats by Iran.

Iran’s desire to hijack the Arab Spring is relentless along with useless!

For Iran to make threats about the US hijacking the movement is simply a further sign of how worried they are about the eventual outcome.

Some may see this as a statement about Syria, but my bet is the issue here is actually Libya!

It’s no secret Iran would love to influence the future government of Libya not just to keep the West from calling the shots, but to limit the ever growing power of the Muslim Brotherhood.

What I did notice in this article is Iran didn’t take credit for the Arab Spring as they have in the past.

Perhaps he just forgot to mention that asinine  claim?

One thing is for certain, Iran knows what direction the Arab Spring is moving and it is not in their favor.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.ee159abe0e0b3f7c4e870162182b6233.2c1&show_article=1

The second article on this topic is more serious than Iran’s threat.

For the French to talk about potential attacks on Iran’s Nuclear program  we would have to assume they “reviewed” this statement with several key allies prior to release.

The ability to play “ Good Cop… Bad Cop” can not be overlooked here.

I would have like to have heard the response in Iran when this story broke.

For months now the Iranian government has been in  a desperate race to beat the Arab Springs arrival in Iran by announcing it’s nuclear shield.

What’s even more dangerous is the concept of Iran truly believing Israel will wait that long.

I have said this before and I will say it again; both Iran and Israel are near a “ use or lose” point in their conflict.

Iran is losing its key strategic and tactical tools to combat Israel … Hamas… Hezbollah … Syria…

Israel is losing 30 yrs of agreed upon buffer zones with Egypt.. Lebanon and Syria…

Israel fears the events of September more than any event in their recent history.

The question becomes, what will they do about it?

What will Iran be willing to do?

These two are heading full speed at each other and the world seems to underestimating just what could happen.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.08e95fba9a75ed31e6c5e4213995533c.111&show_article=1 



HEZBOLLAH’S DECISION TIME GROWS NEAR!

Nasrallah maybe a crazed fanatic, but he is no fool!

The concept of Hezbollah deciding to break away from Syria is not a new.

The idea that Hezbollah may abandon Assad and yet keep some alliance with a new government in Syria is a new twist.

It is a sure bet Nasrallah is talking to Iran, behind Assad’s back, and the two are plotting some escape route for this dire event called Syria.

War or betrayal?

What path will the two of them chose?

For Hezbollah to bank on a new Dictator, sympathetic to the Hezbollah cause is a stretch at best.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and the Sunni population see their “ time in the sun” coming in Syria and the wishes of Hezbollah won’t be considered.

Iran can only see Nasrallah’s predicament as yet another example of how the “Master Plan” for Iran is falling apart.

The complications of the Syrian revolt have been known and anticipated from the very first protest.

Where it ends is probably understood and feared all at the same time.

Violence has been the easy answer in the Middle East for more than four thousand years.

It is probably going to be the answer to the Syrian Revolt and beyond..

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/29/will-hezbollah-desert-assad-before-the-end/



ARAB LEAGUE AND SYRIAN MILITARY DEFECTIONS!

With the Arab League meeting in Cairo for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian uprising, it is becoming clear they have no plan or even a concept of a plan to deal with Syria.

The League fears the results of the uprising as much as they fear the West potential reactions to Syrian government violence.

They must mimic Turkey by sounding alarmed, but not committing to siding with the revolt.

They know all too well where the revolt is heading… into their capitals!

But, as they sit in Cairo and try to find a way to sound concerned about the common people of Syria, something they have no concept of, they must also weigh the danger of looking like an organization of impudent  fools.

They are stuck in a classic case of, “ be careful what you ask for”.

 What worries me more than their empty actions on Syria is their ability to completely miscalculate the September, UN vote on the Palestinian statehood issue.

The members of the AL know all too well how dangerous this issue truly is and creating an environment where Israel and Iran could blunder into a regional war must be avoided.

For the League to promote the PA statehood issue with little “behind the scene” double-cross  homework, an art form in Arab countries, would be disastrous.

As has been the case for decades, the Arab Nations must work hard to limit the success of the Palestinian cause while showing how ‘compassionate’ they are for the Palestinian people….. Yep… like I said… an art form in the Middle East.  

So, the Arab League sits and drinks tea and gives canned press statements all the time working hard behind the scene to limit the success of the Syrian and Palestinian people.

Change is not what any of them want and that includes a Palestinian state or a free Syria.

Tactical Discussion:

Since the first day of the Syrian revolt I have talked about the danger, to Assad that is, of Sunni Military defections.

Small units in an unorganized fashion are not the level of defections that will topple Assad.

Some of the heavy handed assaults on cities such as Hama were most likely the result of the Syrian military dealing with defecting slices of units.

As these defections continue, Assad’s military must deal with the possibility by taking several actions that will only lead to more stress on the military still loyal to him.

1. He must insure the units that are “at risk” of defection are not given weaponry that could act as force multipliers such as armored vehicles and indirect fire weapons.

2. He must insure these “ at risk” units are not utilized in missions that would increase their members desire to defect… I.E.. don’t use them in missions where they will make face to face contact with the Syrian population.

3. He must insure these  “ at risk” units are “watched”.

In taking these actions, Assad places even more of a burden on his loyal units and their leadership.

As I stated several months ago, the “doubt” that is generated by defections is so terribly contagious, few military organizations have the ability  to maintain operational status.

Paranoia is the disease created by defections and paranoia runs fast and deep in Tyrannical leaderships.

Rumors of defections are as damaging as actual defections.

For every story Assad hears on Al Jazeera and other news media platforms, about defections and rumors of defections, he is more and more inclined to overact.

The resistance understands this “weapon” all too well!!!

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/28/syrian-army-fights-defectors-near-damascus/