ARAB LEAGUE AND SYRIAN MILITARY DEFECTIONS!

With the Arab League meeting in Cairo for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian uprising, it is becoming clear they have no plan or even a concept of a plan to deal with Syria.

The League fears the results of the uprising as much as they fear the West potential reactions to Syrian government violence.

They must mimic Turkey by sounding alarmed, but not committing to siding with the revolt.

They know all too well where the revolt is heading… into their capitals!

But, as they sit in Cairo and try to find a way to sound concerned about the common people of Syria, something they have no concept of, they must also weigh the danger of looking like an organization of impudent  fools.

They are stuck in a classic case of, “ be careful what you ask for”.

 What worries me more than their empty actions on Syria is their ability to completely miscalculate the September, UN vote on the Palestinian statehood issue.

The members of the AL know all too well how dangerous this issue truly is and creating an environment where Israel and Iran could blunder into a regional war must be avoided.

For the League to promote the PA statehood issue with little “behind the scene” double-cross  homework, an art form in Arab countries, would be disastrous.

As has been the case for decades, the Arab Nations must work hard to limit the success of the Palestinian cause while showing how ‘compassionate’ they are for the Palestinian people….. Yep… like I said… an art form in the Middle East.  

So, the Arab League sits and drinks tea and gives canned press statements all the time working hard behind the scene to limit the success of the Syrian and Palestinian people.

Change is not what any of them want and that includes a Palestinian state or a free Syria.

Tactical Discussion:

Since the first day of the Syrian revolt I have talked about the danger, to Assad that is, of Sunni Military defections.

Small units in an unorganized fashion are not the level of defections that will topple Assad.

Some of the heavy handed assaults on cities such as Hama were most likely the result of the Syrian military dealing with defecting slices of units.

As these defections continue, Assad’s military must deal with the possibility by taking several actions that will only lead to more stress on the military still loyal to him.

1. He must insure the units that are “at risk” of defection are not given weaponry that could act as force multipliers such as armored vehicles and indirect fire weapons.

2. He must insure these “ at risk” units are not utilized in missions that would increase their members desire to defect… I.E.. don’t use them in missions where they will make face to face contact with the Syrian population.

3. He must insure these  “ at risk” units are “watched”.

In taking these actions, Assad places even more of a burden on his loyal units and their leadership.

As I stated several months ago, the “doubt” that is generated by defections is so terribly contagious, few military organizations have the ability  to maintain operational status.

Paranoia is the disease created by defections and paranoia runs fast and deep in Tyrannical leaderships.

Rumors of defections are as damaging as actual defections.

For every story Assad hears on Al Jazeera and other news media platforms, about defections and rumors of defections, he is more and more inclined to overact.

The resistance understands this “weapon” all too well!!!

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/28/syrian-army-fights-defectors-near-damascus/