ISRAEL AND EGYPT.. THE DANGER OF ESCALATION.  

Last night I talked about just how tedious the situation between Egypt and Israel had become over the terrorist attack and the reactions to it.

It is obvious the tensions have increased drastically in the past 24 hrs.

I will go on record stating I do not believe Egypt is willing to turn this event into a full scale crisis that could lead to conflict and the same goes for Israel.

I think what is going on here is the Egyptian Military has and had two issues that forced the Egyptian government to respond.

1. The Fundamentalist wasted no time taking advantage of the event.

The protest at the Israeli Embassy  was quickly organized and probably took very little effort.

2. The Israeli comment about the Egyptian Military not being able to control the      Sinai border with Israel was an complete disaster.  

Any operational planner worth their weight in salt should have been able to predict this was just the kind of half-baked statement the attackers were praying Israel would make.

It played right into their hands. STUPID!!!!

How Israel, after all that is going on in the Middle East, could not figure out the “ Master Plan’ of needing a distraction for Syria, is a complete mystery to me.

These “groups” in Gaza have handlers and their actions were coordinated for a reason.

Honestly, It makes me wonder if Israel has the ability to think clearly about what is going on in the Middle East.

Perhaps the pending events of September are so overwhelming to them that they are prone to  kneejerk reaction right now!

I am not kidding when I say, I am stunned Israel misplayed this event at the public statement level and the idea they would be reluctant to apologize for the losses of the Egyptian Military and civilian  police  makes me almost lost for words.

Here is the problem; the spiraling of events is not dictated by the Egyptian Military, but by the groups firing rockets and mortars out of Gaza!

I still believe Israel is too smart to jump into another ground operation in Gaza, but if the rockets continue, Israel can only assume the groups have been ordered to continue; thus the risk of escalation grows exponentially.

The IDF has working relationships with the PA security forces and the ability to estimate just how much longer this might go on is  an advantage for the IDF.

Are things going to get out of control?

As it stands now, I don’t think it will, but Israel simply must get better at predicting what needs to be said or it may get way …way … out of hand.

As I said last night…. The whole area is on Pins and Needles and poor decision making will be disastrous.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=234680

http://www.debka.com/article/21226/



ATTACKS IN ISRAEL AND AN UPDATE ON SYRIA:

Sometimes timing is everything and today’s attacks in Israel is a classic example.

If tensions were not so high right now, the attacks of today, as dramatic as they were, would have not run the chance of exploding into something far more serious.

I’m not convinced this event will lead to such an action, but any slipup right now and the whole situation could get out of hand fast.

I am convinced the attack was a message to Egypt and Israel.

The Terror units operating out of the Sinai are capable of acting whenever they like.

The Egyptian movement into the Sinai this week to deal with these groups probably lead to them making the statement they did today.

It tells Israel Egypt will have a far more difficult time securing the Sinai than Egypt is willing to admit.

Already today there was a call for Israel to review the security measures along the border with Egypt.

If that was the intent of this attack, and I think it was, then the groups got just the reaction they were looking for.

The IDF attacks into Gaza are as predictable as any action in the Middle East.

The fact that an Operational leader was actually killed in the attack on Gaza tells me the IDF keeps their target sets “ eyes on” probably at all times and simply waits to get the green light to hit them.

Bottom line; the events of today are critical not just because of the deaths and severity of the attacks, anti tank weapons again against a bus, but the whole area is on pins and needles.

Any event can quickly spiral into a major issue.

Syria:

I think I read this analogy four or five times today about Assad; “ A day late and a dollar short”.

After you utilize field artillery, tanks and  helicopter gunships against your own public, it’s a little reticules to announce “ reforms”.

The odds of the UN pushing Crimes against Humanity charges are probably on the horizon for Assad.

The  US President’s call for Assad to leave is more of a sequential process than an open statement.

The pressure of such a statement is placed on Russia and China.

They both know they are more and more placing themselves on the wrong side of this event.

The President’s statement will have been well coordinated with the Turkish government and perhaps even the Arab League.  

Here we go again!

The question still remains; what will Iran do about Assad?

If we see follow on attacks from the Sinai or other areas, we may have the answer, as unfortunate as that answer would be.





THE PUPPET SPEAKS OUT ON STL!

As far as Iran is concerned, a Puppet is just what Hassan Nasrallah is.

So, we can assume his rebuttal to the STL  issue today was carefully scripted and pre approved.

Last night I covered the issue of Iran’s willingness to push not just the Syrian issue, but the Lebanese option as well.

Before the events of Syria started, it was easy to see Hezbollah simply ignoring the STL event when it came, but that was the old plan.

Here is the problem.

Last night, I covered what Iran might have to contemplate if Assad is about to fall.

The concept of using Lebanon as distraction  is still a viable option, but what if Iran doesn’t get the chance to call the shots?

What if Lebanon cooks off without the guidance of the Iranian leadership?

What if the Sunni of Lebanon decide to openly support the Sunni of Syria?

Trust me, the Iranians, Turks, Syrians and just about everyone else is thinking and worrying about the same thing.

Let’s get back to the Puppet.

Hezbollah’s game plan to ignore the STL is gone.

Nasrallah’s speech today on just how cooked up the investigation was is not going to stop  the UN.

The UN’s reputation of being able to investigate, and prosecute would be severely challenged if Hezbollah and the Lebanese government was allowed to simply ignore the indictment.  

The next question is, does the Harri lead March 18^th leadership simply let March 8^th and their Hezbollah Masters shape this event?

What does all this mean?

It means Lebanon could easily cook off before the events in Syria come to a conclusion.

Iran could be about to lose control of Hezbollah and Lebanon as Syria slides into a sectarian war.

If Lebanon turns violent, it will be nearly impossible to keep Syria from the dreaded Sectarian War.

It just keeps getting hotter and hotter in the Middle East.

Oh ya.. Fireworks in Yemen based on a ‘homecoming’.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/08/20118171 8229843197.html

OK.. THE TIME IS APPROACHING… SO JUST HOW FAR IS IRAN WILING TO GO?

It’s broken record time…. But the question is becoming more and more relevant.

Just what is Iran willing to do to save the Assad regime?

In the past, I have talked about Iran’s options and the desperate need for distractions, but some are starting to theorize the “Lebanon” option  is no longer looked at as a ‘Distraction’, but as a Warning or even a reprisal for actions against Assad.  

When I went into great detail on how this Lebanon event might take place, I concluded such action could easily spiral out of control for not only Iran, but the Middle East as a region.

Tensions are higher in Lebanon than they have been for years.

The sides are drawn and the folks who have been trying to work the middle ground between the March 14^th and March 8^th groups have begun to pull away as if they are preparing for what they believe to be the inevitable.

If Iran or Assad or both decide that violence in Lebanon is the answer, then there is probably little anyone can do about it.

Turkey would, if they have not already done so, warn both Assad and Iran not to drag Lebanon into the violence, but I am not sure Assad or especially Iran is in a position to take advice or warnings from Turkey.

Inter the Israeli factor:

We are only one month away from a very dramatic time for Israel and the Palestinian People.

The UN vote is project number one for Israel and the PA right now and a conflict in Lebanon would be disastrous for both; not to mention the region.

As Israel prepares for what many  believe is going to be the most violent month in years, a well timed Lebanese event could set into motion a maelstrom event.

Some of us have seen this “perfect storm” coming for months now.

I know Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Iran and most major players in the UN have.

Last but not least, the fact that Assad is killing Palestinians, inside their UN run camps is not going over well with the Palestinian Authority.

As a result, Iran can all but forget support from Hamas and they know they are paying a strategic price at the expense of Assad.

This might be explained away by Assad by saying the “ Rebels” were hiding in the Palestinian camps.

That might play in Iran, although I don’t think so, but it will never work with the PA.

Yes; the whole area is a pressure cooker and the gauge is just about pegged!!!

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/16/lebanese-situation-could-explode-at-any-time-report/

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/16/syria-brings-in-iranian-snipers-to-quell-protests-report/



IS TURKEY’S TOLERANCE  WITH SYRIA REALLY RUNNING OUT?  

If you read today about the Syrian military increasing it’s operations in several cities, you may have still missed the real issue to be concerned about.

A few days ago  I commented about Syria employing Field Artillery Units against the Resistance and how it would be extremely difficult to estimate the causality rate given most people would have to stay inside and be unable to dig through the rubble.

I will repeat myself today and submit it is impossible to get an accurate estimate of casualties.

Field Artillery Units  create far more damage and destruction that Tank Units.

On top of this dramatic escalation in tactics, We have  witnessed Helicopter Gunships.

A few weeks ago I talked about how Syria would have to dramatically increase the tactical support of the armor units if they were going to push them into an urban environment.  

Up until then, it was fairly obvious the armored vehicles where more for physiological impact than tactical edge.

Unfortunately, Syria has executed exactly what I said they would need to.

Armor, supported by Air and Artillery!

The dramatic news coverage of the Syrian Navel employment simply adds to this change in strategic operations for Assad.

In short, it has become clear to other world leaders that Assad has decided to take his struggle with the resistance to the next level and thereby dramatically increase the causality rates.

As such, it is no surprise Turkey gave it’s second “Warning” to Assad today.

It was covered in the Turkish press, but had limited play outside of Turkey although the Isalie press did not miss the message.

Turkey’s use of words as strong as, “ Our last warning” should be recognized by all outsiders.

I am willing to bet the message was not overlooked in Iran.

So, does Turkey seem to be moving closer to taking action on Syria and if so, what action are they willing to take.

I have mentioned the persistent rumor of a Turkish “Safe Zone” being established in Syria.

I think the response Turkey was given last week by Assad and Iran showed them just how dangerous this concept might be.

What other “options” does Turkey have?

It would be a powerful message for Turkey to host a meeting of the Arab League for the purpose of unified condemnation of Syria.

Iran would struggle with openly rebuffing not just Turkey, but the Arab League speaking in one voice with Turkey.

The step from there to actually calling for a UNSC vote on Syria, as dramatic as that would be, would not be far behind.

Russia and China would be hard pressed to veto such a vote given the support of the Arab League.

It’s going to get complex quick!

Most of the talk around the UN is the pending Palestinian Statehood issue, but being forced to deal with Syria first may be just the ticket some in the UN are looking for; the ones that don’t want to deal with Syria.

Here is a twist that will not get overlooked.

One of the prime targets of the current Syrian military actions in Latakia are Palestinians!

The odds of the Syrian event being off the table before the Mid September vote, if there is a vote, on Palestinian Statehood are not good.

Keep an eye on Turkey.

They made the comment they did today for a reason.

Something is up with them and it will not take long to see what they have planned.

As I have said many times in the past five months; it’s a huge challenge to be a “leader” and that is what Turkey wants to be.

THE TUNISIAN VIRUS AND THE US MAINLAND:

Yep… I’m going back to my original title for the events of the Middle East and North Africa; although the area of concern has become global.

So, let me explain why, as I have been saying since January, I believe the “Virus” will come to the US… how it might come…. Who might be stoking the flames and how it will impact the US population.

Why?

Sometimes events in the world become far more important or impacting just because of the timing of when they take place.

If the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / phenomenon had occurred in a period of economic prosperity, it is entirely possible we would not even be having this conversation.

Oppressive governments bring about their own cycle of history, but never the less the ability for wide spread protest would have been limited to the countries under the control of ruthless leadership if the world was in a cycle of economic upswing.

When you have more than one problem in common, it becomes easier for groups to find a collective cause.

In the Middle East, it’s the issue of Tyrannical governments and economic imbalance.

What we bag to see several months ago was the ‘mutation’ of the ‘Virus’.

Countries that had stabilized, democratically elected leadership still began to witness people taking to the streets. 

The detailed reasons varied somewhat, but the core issue always wraps itself around some form of social program or some lack of government support. 

Let’s cut to the chase on the issue of “why” this problem is going to come to the US mainland.

It’s simple….  Entitlements and jobs. 

Everyone in the US understands the federal budget is unsustainable, but hardly anyone wants to see cuts in programs that impact them or their families.

On the issue of jobs; the real problem is the type of jobs that have come about after nearly a TRILLION dollar federal stimulus concept.

Those that lost their jobs in the crash of 2008-9 that have been lucky enough to go back to work have almost always gone back to jobs that pay way less than their old job and have virtually no benefit coverage; hence the issue of entitlements… it’s an ugly cycle.

Ok;  the good Lord knows I am NOT  an economist, but I do know how aggressive counties leverage events to gain advantages over their advisories.

Those that wish the US ill know full well the US is highly vulnerable to pubic unrest.

It is the US’s nature to allow these events to take place and to severely limit the process of curtailing them.

As a matter of fact, take a look at the US Constitution and one of the first things you will notice is the “right” to free speech and the right to assembly.

It was a well known fact the KGB all throughout the Cold War worked diligently to ferment disruption in the US and Her Allies.

Flash forward to 2011 and just imagine the wheels turning in the bunkers of Iran…

Iran knows all too well the “Super Committee” concept in the US is going to at least worry many who depend, right or wrong, on ‘Entitlements’

Knowing this and knowing the popular thing to do on College Campuses all over the world right now is to protest!

Just look at the faces you see on You Tube..

Smiling… Laughing… Angry over issues they are too young to even comprehend.

As was the case in Egypt, the ‘Youth’ movement, coupled with an ideology of , “ I want everything and I want it now” sprinkled with the truth of a Tyrannical Government and you have everything you need for social disorder.

Now, in the US, we don’t have the issue of a Tyrannical government, but that has never stopped people from protesting in the US.

So, to recap the “why” issue; it will come to the US because of poor economic conditions that must lead to the reduction of the most addictive drug in the US… Entitlements!

A weak job market will only add oxygen to this fire.

How will it come?

It will start with protest against entitlement cuts.

These protests will be coordinated over social media backbones.

The federal, state and local law enforcement agencies will have no real plan other than dealing with the protest as they happen.

They will be covered intensely by the media with the theme of “The Arab Spring comes to the US”.

Al Jazeera will post its first article ten minutes after the first entitlement protest takes place that has over 100 people in attendance.

As a side note, the city of Philadelphia has had a crash course on dealing with what is called ‘ Flash Mob Events”.

To what level the law enforcement agencies responded to social media networks support of these events would be interesting to review.

Thugs in Philadelphia are not exactly on the same level of University based; Social Revelatory movements, but how a protest starts and how it evolves are two separate issues. 

This concept of trying to hijack a movement has already been attempted with the events in Wisconsin.

Just go back and read the story Al Jazeera posted about  the events in Wisconsin.

The bottom line is the threat of civil protest based on federal government reductions has a lot of people worried, even if they don’t wish to admit it.

Who will inflame the events?

Our enemies, namely Iran, would love to see social unrest in the US.

How they might be able to support such events is a complex issue.

You would have to be completely  asleep at the switch to think for a minute Iran doesn’t have a network operational in the US.

Hezbollah is the lead team and how that could play into the concept of social unrest in the US is a frightening thought.

The most likely and most practical course of action for Iran would be to support those groups that thrive on protest environments  without them really knowing where the support is coming from and more importantly without leaving a verifiable trail. 

Just think of all the tactically advice Iran and or Hezbollah could provide to “organizers” without them even knowing who was providing the advice?

Think of it as a modern day version of “ Little Red Ridding Hood”.

A scary and very likely scenario and it’s out there as we speak…. I would bank on it!

Beside our “enemies” the US has another group that would support this “ social disorder” concept to the fullest extent possible.

 I am referring to homegrown Social Revolutionary groups and fanatics on both ends of the spectrum.

Here comes the real problem.

Both of these supportive concept, our known Enemies and homegrown movements are wizards at the Social Networking process.

The last time this country really faced a nationwide social upheaval was in the 60s.

The whole Social Networking concept is on a level that couldn’t have even been imagined in the 60s.

The other frightening concept of Social Networking revolves around the fact that “Authorities”  charged with preventing these protest movements from getting out of control are fare less knowledge of how social networking executes than the people using them.

It’s the old joke about having to ask your ten year old son how to run the VCR….. do they make VCRs anymore?

How will these events impact the US?

This is a good news, bad news  answer.

Here is the good news.

The US is a country that prides itself on allowing and thus defusing social protest and yes even social disorder.

The ‘Free Press’ is key to neutralizing events in the US before they get way out of hand.

As a established Democracy, the US has so many more tools at its disposal  to deal with events Social Unrest.

Although the American public likes to watch emotional events on the news, they are not typically motivate to get off the couch and stand out side acting a fool for more than a day or two…

It just gets old and they may miss an episode of  Dancing with the Stars!

Yes; at the moment, life is still just too good to really take on the task of getting gassed and clubbed.

 And finally, the “Burbs” are a strong deterrent to “group think”.

Ok, now comes the bad news part of this answer.

As I stated above, the Authorities, federal, state  and local are not prepared for the current form of social unrest and that is mainly based on the lack of understanding of social networking.

Getting out ahead of these events without violating US citizens’  civil rights is the challenge.

Understanding how the Social Media networks will support these events is even more complicated.

As the authorities struggle to understand how the good people will organize legal protest, they will have to take on the threat of our enemies infiltrating these events with no knowledge of the “ good people”.

Again, I go back to my comment about web based information, advices … fund raising ect.. ect…

When these events take place, manipulation will be the weapon of choice for our enemies.

Foreign media will be quick to exploit  the events, especially the state controlled media that plays to an audience outside the US.

Yes.. I am talking about organizations like Al Jazeera!!

In conclusion, the US runs the real threat of dealing with it’s own version of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus !

The concept of “ Social / Economic Injustice”, regardless if it is true or not, is the catalyist across the world and the US is not an Island that will survive this Virus.

The issue becomes, how are the events dealt with and how hard to “others” work to make the US resemble the Middle East.

PS.  It’s hard to tell when this could happen.

It may take several months or it could happen this week.  

A Youngman set himself on fire in Tunisia and that is all it took for the Middle East to explode!

Is the US civil environment the same as the Middle East?

No..

Does that mean it will not happen?

No…





ENGLAND AND ARAB SPRING..  THE DISCUSSION  CONTINUES.

Interesting to see that even Al Jazeera understands it’s a stretch to compare the events in England to the events in the Middle East and North Africa, but that doesn’t stop them from planting the seed!

I have talked about the real danger of these events in England being hijacked by “other causes” and Al Jazeera along with other liberal media agencies are playing right into their hands.

Last night I mentioned how Iran is praying for events in England to continue as long as they can.

Their reasoning has already been covered and I may have mentioned a few nights ago the reasoning behind the other main group feeding on turmoil… the Social Revolutionaries.

Hijacking a cause is nothing new to revolutionary movements.

Dramatic, large scale events usually do not end along the same lines as they began.

Those that become involved in an event will set the course coupled with those that react to the event.

Once something like what is taking place in England begins, change is based upon commitment …. Support… and reaction..

As an example, the London Police Department, by their own admission,  was slow to react to the riots.

This gave the young Thugs the confidence to escalate and it gave them the time to plot on social networks. 

So, the reaction of the London Police attributed to the commitment of the rioters!

What does all of this have to do with the Arab Spring, PS.. I still call it the Tunisian Virus?

Here is the short version.

It doesn’t really matter how or why the riots started.

What matters is the event now has the ability to change, mutate, into something it was never intended to be… a continuation of the Arab Spring .. based on so called social injustices and economic imbalances.

Sympathetic youths in Egypt and  other troubled countries, Chile for example, can communicate with young more educated youths in England, not the thugs who picked the backpack of an injured teenager.

This is the transformation process..

This is where the real danger comes from.

If the social injustice cause is supported by young college students and their far left leaning Department Chairs, then England is in for a much more difficult process.

Yes, causes do get hijacked and in the world of social media, this process has taken on a life that we truly do not understand yet.

Here is the million dollar question again!

Can the Arab Spring, social revolution, come to the states?

My opinion..

Bank on it…

This weekend, I will explain myself in detail.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/08/2011811122931660627.html