THE TUNISIAN VIRUS AND THE US MAINLAND:

Yep… I’m going back to my original title for the events of the Middle East and North Africa; although the area of concern has become global.

So, let me explain why, as I have been saying since January, I believe the “Virus” will come to the US… how it might come…. Who might be stoking the flames and how it will impact the US population.

Why?

Sometimes events in the world become far more important or impacting just because of the timing of when they take place.

If the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / phenomenon had occurred in a period of economic prosperity, it is entirely possible we would not even be having this conversation.

Oppressive governments bring about their own cycle of history, but never the less the ability for wide spread protest would have been limited to the countries under the control of ruthless leadership if the world was in a cycle of economic upswing.

When you have more than one problem in common, it becomes easier for groups to find a collective cause.

In the Middle East, it’s the issue of Tyrannical governments and economic imbalance.

What we bag to see several months ago was the ‘mutation’ of the ‘Virus’.

Countries that had stabilized, democratically elected leadership still began to witness people taking to the streets. 

The detailed reasons varied somewhat, but the core issue always wraps itself around some form of social program or some lack of government support. 

Let’s cut to the chase on the issue of “why” this problem is going to come to the US mainland.

It’s simple….  Entitlements and jobs. 

Everyone in the US understands the federal budget is unsustainable, but hardly anyone wants to see cuts in programs that impact them or their families.

On the issue of jobs; the real problem is the type of jobs that have come about after nearly a TRILLION dollar federal stimulus concept.

Those that lost their jobs in the crash of 2008-9 that have been lucky enough to go back to work have almost always gone back to jobs that pay way less than their old job and have virtually no benefit coverage; hence the issue of entitlements… it’s an ugly cycle.

Ok;  the good Lord knows I am NOT  an economist, but I do know how aggressive counties leverage events to gain advantages over their advisories.

Those that wish the US ill know full well the US is highly vulnerable to pubic unrest.

It is the US’s nature to allow these events to take place and to severely limit the process of curtailing them.

As a matter of fact, take a look at the US Constitution and one of the first things you will notice is the “right” to free speech and the right to assembly.

It was a well known fact the KGB all throughout the Cold War worked diligently to ferment disruption in the US and Her Allies.

Flash forward to 2011 and just imagine the wheels turning in the bunkers of Iran…

Iran knows all too well the “Super Committee” concept in the US is going to at least worry many who depend, right or wrong, on ‘Entitlements’

Knowing this and knowing the popular thing to do on College Campuses all over the world right now is to protest!

Just look at the faces you see on You Tube..

Smiling… Laughing… Angry over issues they are too young to even comprehend.

As was the case in Egypt, the ‘Youth’ movement, coupled with an ideology of , “ I want everything and I want it now” sprinkled with the truth of a Tyrannical Government and you have everything you need for social disorder.

Now, in the US, we don’t have the issue of a Tyrannical government, but that has never stopped people from protesting in the US.

So, to recap the “why” issue; it will come to the US because of poor economic conditions that must lead to the reduction of the most addictive drug in the US… Entitlements!

A weak job market will only add oxygen to this fire.

How will it come?

It will start with protest against entitlement cuts.

These protests will be coordinated over social media backbones.

The federal, state and local law enforcement agencies will have no real plan other than dealing with the protest as they happen.

They will be covered intensely by the media with the theme of “The Arab Spring comes to the US”.

Al Jazeera will post its first article ten minutes after the first entitlement protest takes place that has over 100 people in attendance.

As a side note, the city of Philadelphia has had a crash course on dealing with what is called ‘ Flash Mob Events”.

To what level the law enforcement agencies responded to social media networks support of these events would be interesting to review.

Thugs in Philadelphia are not exactly on the same level of University based; Social Revelatory movements, but how a protest starts and how it evolves are two separate issues. 

This concept of trying to hijack a movement has already been attempted with the events in Wisconsin.

Just go back and read the story Al Jazeera posted about  the events in Wisconsin.

The bottom line is the threat of civil protest based on federal government reductions has a lot of people worried, even if they don’t wish to admit it.

Who will inflame the events?

Our enemies, namely Iran, would love to see social unrest in the US.

How they might be able to support such events is a complex issue.

You would have to be completely  asleep at the switch to think for a minute Iran doesn’t have a network operational in the US.

Hezbollah is the lead team and how that could play into the concept of social unrest in the US is a frightening thought.

The most likely and most practical course of action for Iran would be to support those groups that thrive on protest environments  without them really knowing where the support is coming from and more importantly without leaving a verifiable trail. 

Just think of all the tactically advice Iran and or Hezbollah could provide to “organizers” without them even knowing who was providing the advice?

Think of it as a modern day version of “ Little Red Ridding Hood”.

A scary and very likely scenario and it’s out there as we speak…. I would bank on it!

Beside our “enemies” the US has another group that would support this “ social disorder” concept to the fullest extent possible.

 I am referring to homegrown Social Revolutionary groups and fanatics on both ends of the spectrum.

Here comes the real problem.

Both of these supportive concept, our known Enemies and homegrown movements are wizards at the Social Networking process.

The last time this country really faced a nationwide social upheaval was in the 60s.

The whole Social Networking concept is on a level that couldn’t have even been imagined in the 60s.

The other frightening concept of Social Networking revolves around the fact that “Authorities”  charged with preventing these protest movements from getting out of control are fare less knowledge of how social networking executes than the people using them.

It’s the old joke about having to ask your ten year old son how to run the VCR….. do they make VCRs anymore?

How will these events impact the US?

This is a good news, bad news  answer.

Here is the good news.

The US is a country that prides itself on allowing and thus defusing social protest and yes even social disorder.

The ‘Free Press’ is key to neutralizing events in the US before they get way out of hand.

As a established Democracy, the US has so many more tools at its disposal  to deal with events Social Unrest.

Although the American public likes to watch emotional events on the news, they are not typically motivate to get off the couch and stand out side acting a fool for more than a day or two…

It just gets old and they may miss an episode of  Dancing with the Stars!

Yes; at the moment, life is still just too good to really take on the task of getting gassed and clubbed.

 And finally, the “Burbs” are a strong deterrent to “group think”.

Ok, now comes the bad news part of this answer.

As I stated above, the Authorities, federal, state  and local are not prepared for the current form of social unrest and that is mainly based on the lack of understanding of social networking.

Getting out ahead of these events without violating US citizens’  civil rights is the challenge.

Understanding how the Social Media networks will support these events is even more complicated.

As the authorities struggle to understand how the good people will organize legal protest, they will have to take on the threat of our enemies infiltrating these events with no knowledge of the “ good people”.

Again, I go back to my comment about web based information, advices … fund raising ect.. ect…

When these events take place, manipulation will be the weapon of choice for our enemies.

Foreign media will be quick to exploit  the events, especially the state controlled media that plays to an audience outside the US.

Yes.. I am talking about organizations like Al Jazeera!!

In conclusion, the US runs the real threat of dealing with it’s own version of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus !

The concept of “ Social / Economic Injustice”, regardless if it is true or not, is the catalyist across the world and the US is not an Island that will survive this Virus.

The issue becomes, how are the events dealt with and how hard to “others” work to make the US resemble the Middle East.

PS.  It’s hard to tell when this could happen.

It may take several months or it could happen this week.  

A Youngman set himself on fire in Tunisia and that is all it took for the Middle East to explode!

Is the US civil environment the same as the Middle East?

No..

Does that mean it will not happen?

No…