IS TURKEY’S TOLERANCE  WITH SYRIA REALLY RUNNING OUT?  

If you read today about the Syrian military increasing it’s operations in several cities, you may have still missed the real issue to be concerned about.

A few days ago  I commented about Syria employing Field Artillery Units against the Resistance and how it would be extremely difficult to estimate the causality rate given most people would have to stay inside and be unable to dig through the rubble.

I will repeat myself today and submit it is impossible to get an accurate estimate of casualties.

Field Artillery Units  create far more damage and destruction that Tank Units.

On top of this dramatic escalation in tactics, We have  witnessed Helicopter Gunships.

A few weeks ago I talked about how Syria would have to dramatically increase the tactical support of the armor units if they were going to push them into an urban environment.  

Up until then, it was fairly obvious the armored vehicles where more for physiological impact than tactical edge.

Unfortunately, Syria has executed exactly what I said they would need to.

Armor, supported by Air and Artillery!

The dramatic news coverage of the Syrian Navel employment simply adds to this change in strategic operations for Assad.

In short, it has become clear to other world leaders that Assad has decided to take his struggle with the resistance to the next level and thereby dramatically increase the causality rates.

As such, it is no surprise Turkey gave it’s second “Warning” to Assad today.

It was covered in the Turkish press, but had limited play outside of Turkey although the Isalie press did not miss the message.

Turkey’s use of words as strong as, “ Our last warning” should be recognized by all outsiders.

I am willing to bet the message was not overlooked in Iran.

So, does Turkey seem to be moving closer to taking action on Syria and if so, what action are they willing to take.

I have mentioned the persistent rumor of a Turkish “Safe Zone” being established in Syria.

I think the response Turkey was given last week by Assad and Iran showed them just how dangerous this concept might be.

What other “options” does Turkey have?

It would be a powerful message for Turkey to host a meeting of the Arab League for the purpose of unified condemnation of Syria.

Iran would struggle with openly rebuffing not just Turkey, but the Arab League speaking in one voice with Turkey.

The step from there to actually calling for a UNSC vote on Syria, as dramatic as that would be, would not be far behind.

Russia and China would be hard pressed to veto such a vote given the support of the Arab League.

It’s going to get complex quick!

Most of the talk around the UN is the pending Palestinian Statehood issue, but being forced to deal with Syria first may be just the ticket some in the UN are looking for; the ones that don’t want to deal with Syria.

Here is a twist that will not get overlooked.

One of the prime targets of the current Syrian military actions in Latakia are Palestinians!

The odds of the Syrian event being off the table before the Mid September vote, if there is a vote, on Palestinian Statehood are not good.

Keep an eye on Turkey.

They made the comment they did today for a reason.

Something is up with them and it will not take long to see what they have planned.

As I have said many times in the past five months; it’s a huge challenge to be a “leader” and that is what Turkey wants to be.

THE TUNISIAN VIRUS AND THE US MAINLAND:

Yep… I’m going back to my original title for the events of the Middle East and North Africa; although the area of concern has become global.

So, let me explain why, as I have been saying since January, I believe the “Virus” will come to the US… how it might come…. Who might be stoking the flames and how it will impact the US population.

Why?

Sometimes events in the world become far more important or impacting just because of the timing of when they take place.

If the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / phenomenon had occurred in a period of economic prosperity, it is entirely possible we would not even be having this conversation.

Oppressive governments bring about their own cycle of history, but never the less the ability for wide spread protest would have been limited to the countries under the control of ruthless leadership if the world was in a cycle of economic upswing.

When you have more than one problem in common, it becomes easier for groups to find a collective cause.

In the Middle East, it’s the issue of Tyrannical governments and economic imbalance.

What we bag to see several months ago was the ‘mutation’ of the ‘Virus’.

Countries that had stabilized, democratically elected leadership still began to witness people taking to the streets. 

The detailed reasons varied somewhat, but the core issue always wraps itself around some form of social program or some lack of government support. 

Let’s cut to the chase on the issue of “why” this problem is going to come to the US mainland.

It’s simple….  Entitlements and jobs. 

Everyone in the US understands the federal budget is unsustainable, but hardly anyone wants to see cuts in programs that impact them or their families.

On the issue of jobs; the real problem is the type of jobs that have come about after nearly a TRILLION dollar federal stimulus concept.

Those that lost their jobs in the crash of 2008-9 that have been lucky enough to go back to work have almost always gone back to jobs that pay way less than their old job and have virtually no benefit coverage; hence the issue of entitlements… it’s an ugly cycle.

Ok;  the good Lord knows I am NOT  an economist, but I do know how aggressive counties leverage events to gain advantages over their advisories.

Those that wish the US ill know full well the US is highly vulnerable to pubic unrest.

It is the US’s nature to allow these events to take place and to severely limit the process of curtailing them.

As a matter of fact, take a look at the US Constitution and one of the first things you will notice is the “right” to free speech and the right to assembly.

It was a well known fact the KGB all throughout the Cold War worked diligently to ferment disruption in the US and Her Allies.

Flash forward to 2011 and just imagine the wheels turning in the bunkers of Iran…

Iran knows all too well the “Super Committee” concept in the US is going to at least worry many who depend, right or wrong, on ‘Entitlements’

Knowing this and knowing the popular thing to do on College Campuses all over the world right now is to protest!

Just look at the faces you see on You Tube..

Smiling… Laughing… Angry over issues they are too young to even comprehend.

As was the case in Egypt, the ‘Youth’ movement, coupled with an ideology of , “ I want everything and I want it now” sprinkled with the truth of a Tyrannical Government and you have everything you need for social disorder.

Now, in the US, we don’t have the issue of a Tyrannical government, but that has never stopped people from protesting in the US.

So, to recap the “why” issue; it will come to the US because of poor economic conditions that must lead to the reduction of the most addictive drug in the US… Entitlements!

A weak job market will only add oxygen to this fire.

How will it come?

It will start with protest against entitlement cuts.

These protests will be coordinated over social media backbones.

The federal, state and local law enforcement agencies will have no real plan other than dealing with the protest as they happen.

They will be covered intensely by the media with the theme of “The Arab Spring comes to the US”.

Al Jazeera will post its first article ten minutes after the first entitlement protest takes place that has over 100 people in attendance.

As a side note, the city of Philadelphia has had a crash course on dealing with what is called ‘ Flash Mob Events”.

To what level the law enforcement agencies responded to social media networks support of these events would be interesting to review.

Thugs in Philadelphia are not exactly on the same level of University based; Social Revelatory movements, but how a protest starts and how it evolves are two separate issues. 

This concept of trying to hijack a movement has already been attempted with the events in Wisconsin.

Just go back and read the story Al Jazeera posted about  the events in Wisconsin.

The bottom line is the threat of civil protest based on federal government reductions has a lot of people worried, even if they don’t wish to admit it.

Who will inflame the events?

Our enemies, namely Iran, would love to see social unrest in the US.

How they might be able to support such events is a complex issue.

You would have to be completely  asleep at the switch to think for a minute Iran doesn’t have a network operational in the US.

Hezbollah is the lead team and how that could play into the concept of social unrest in the US is a frightening thought.

The most likely and most practical course of action for Iran would be to support those groups that thrive on protest environments  without them really knowing where the support is coming from and more importantly without leaving a verifiable trail. 

Just think of all the tactically advice Iran and or Hezbollah could provide to “organizers” without them even knowing who was providing the advice?

Think of it as a modern day version of “ Little Red Ridding Hood”.

A scary and very likely scenario and it’s out there as we speak…. I would bank on it!

Beside our “enemies” the US has another group that would support this “ social disorder” concept to the fullest extent possible.

 I am referring to homegrown Social Revolutionary groups and fanatics on both ends of the spectrum.

Here comes the real problem.

Both of these supportive concept, our known Enemies and homegrown movements are wizards at the Social Networking process.

The last time this country really faced a nationwide social upheaval was in the 60s.

The whole Social Networking concept is on a level that couldn’t have even been imagined in the 60s.

The other frightening concept of Social Networking revolves around the fact that “Authorities”  charged with preventing these protest movements from getting out of control are fare less knowledge of how social networking executes than the people using them.

It’s the old joke about having to ask your ten year old son how to run the VCR….. do they make VCRs anymore?

How will these events impact the US?

This is a good news, bad news  answer.

Here is the good news.

The US is a country that prides itself on allowing and thus defusing social protest and yes even social disorder.

The ‘Free Press’ is key to neutralizing events in the US before they get way out of hand.

As a established Democracy, the US has so many more tools at its disposal  to deal with events Social Unrest.

Although the American public likes to watch emotional events on the news, they are not typically motivate to get off the couch and stand out side acting a fool for more than a day or two…

It just gets old and they may miss an episode of  Dancing with the Stars!

Yes; at the moment, life is still just too good to really take on the task of getting gassed and clubbed.

 And finally, the “Burbs” are a strong deterrent to “group think”.

Ok, now comes the bad news part of this answer.

As I stated above, the Authorities, federal, state  and local are not prepared for the current form of social unrest and that is mainly based on the lack of understanding of social networking.

Getting out ahead of these events without violating US citizens’  civil rights is the challenge.

Understanding how the Social Media networks will support these events is even more complicated.

As the authorities struggle to understand how the good people will organize legal protest, they will have to take on the threat of our enemies infiltrating these events with no knowledge of the “ good people”.

Again, I go back to my comment about web based information, advices … fund raising ect.. ect…

When these events take place, manipulation will be the weapon of choice for our enemies.

Foreign media will be quick to exploit  the events, especially the state controlled media that plays to an audience outside the US.

Yes.. I am talking about organizations like Al Jazeera!!

In conclusion, the US runs the real threat of dealing with it’s own version of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus !

The concept of “ Social / Economic Injustice”, regardless if it is true or not, is the catalyist across the world and the US is not an Island that will survive this Virus.

The issue becomes, how are the events dealt with and how hard to “others” work to make the US resemble the Middle East.

PS.  It’s hard to tell when this could happen.

It may take several months or it could happen this week.  

A Youngman set himself on fire in Tunisia and that is all it took for the Middle East to explode!

Is the US civil environment the same as the Middle East?

No..

Does that mean it will not happen?

No…





ENGLAND AND ARAB SPRING..  THE DISCUSSION  CONTINUES.

Interesting to see that even Al Jazeera understands it’s a stretch to compare the events in England to the events in the Middle East and North Africa, but that doesn’t stop them from planting the seed!

I have talked about the real danger of these events in England being hijacked by “other causes” and Al Jazeera along with other liberal media agencies are playing right into their hands.

Last night I mentioned how Iran is praying for events in England to continue as long as they can.

Their reasoning has already been covered and I may have mentioned a few nights ago the reasoning behind the other main group feeding on turmoil… the Social Revolutionaries.

Hijacking a cause is nothing new to revolutionary movements.

Dramatic, large scale events usually do not end along the same lines as they began.

Those that become involved in an event will set the course coupled with those that react to the event.

Once something like what is taking place in England begins, change is based upon commitment …. Support… and reaction..

As an example, the London Police Department, by their own admission,  was slow to react to the riots.

This gave the young Thugs the confidence to escalate and it gave them the time to plot on social networks. 

So, the reaction of the London Police attributed to the commitment of the rioters!

What does all of this have to do with the Arab Spring, PS.. I still call it the Tunisian Virus?

Here is the short version.

It doesn’t really matter how or why the riots started.

What matters is the event now has the ability to change, mutate, into something it was never intended to be… a continuation of the Arab Spring .. based on so called social injustices and economic imbalances.

Sympathetic youths in Egypt and  other troubled countries, Chile for example, can communicate with young more educated youths in England, not the thugs who picked the backpack of an injured teenager.

This is the transformation process..

This is where the real danger comes from.

If the social injustice cause is supported by young college students and their far left leaning Department Chairs, then England is in for a much more difficult process.

Yes, causes do get hijacked and in the world of social media, this process has taken on a life that we truly do not understand yet.

Here is the million dollar question again!

Can the Arab Spring, social revolution, come to the states?

My opinion..

Bank on it…

This weekend, I will explain myself in detail.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/08/2011811122931660627.html



THE JOKE OF THE DAY!!!! ACTUALLY TWO JOKES!!

Bashar Jaafari and Ahmadinejad both get the joke of the day award!!

Bashar Jaafari had to work real hard at holding a straight face as we talked about Syria’s mass killings of it’s own people.

To make the comment that “some mistakes have been made” is like absolutely deplorable.

For all the ridiculousness of this feeble attempt to give a press briefing, I think the real message may have been overlooked.

Bashar’s comments about Syria’s “sovereign rights” is most likely a result of the meeting with the Turkish leadership.

The rumor has been and remains Turkey is considering a “ Safe Zone” on Syrian land.

If this topic came up yesterday, behind closed doors, then today’s  announcement by Bashar was part of Syria’s formal response to such a concept.

You could almost take this as  a warning not only to Turkey, but to the UN as well.

I have said it for several months now; Assad and Iran are not going to allow Syria to be governed by the Sunni and at the same time take control of Lebanon.

Assad is beginning  to have so few options that the possibility of increased violence towards his people is nearly guaranteed.

The employment of Field Artillery in the past three days is just another sign of how desperate he is.

I think the casualty rate count will go way up when the people are finally able to come outside.

It simply impossible to know how many are dead with rounds landing all around your home.

I have one final note comment about   Syria before I comment on the moronic   statement by Ahmadinejad.

If the rumor of the Syrian Defense Minister, Al Habib, being dead is true, then the theory of just how bad the defection issue is could explode!

It wont matter if it’s true or will not matter.

The Resistance group will take credit for Assad continuing to lose control.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4106489,00.html

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/08/2011810225038864292.html

Ok… now for the Crazy Genie  and his amazing  statement on the events in England.

Now, it’s nothing new to sit and watch Ahmadinejad make such outrageous statements that take your breath away.

Having said that, the concept that he would ridicule the government of England for it’s actions over the past five days is a stretch even for him.

Again; how he could pull this off with a straight face, although he usually has a half-baked smile on his face when he talks, is beyond me.

Now, why would he say such a utterly stupid thing?

Remember what I said yesterday.

Iran needs events in England to get as bad as they can possibly get.

NEVER EVER forget my theory of Iran and distractions!!!

If I was a member of INTERPOL, I would be looking at anyone in England that is a known Iranian supporter or operative.

What the Mad Genie did let us know today is he is going to exploit the riots in England as much as possible.

http://www.salon.com/wires/allwires/2011/08/10/D9P15RF00_ml_iran_britain_riot/index.html





THE WHOLE WORLD IS INVOLVED IN A RIOT… NEWS AT 1100!!

With right at seven BILLION people is this world, it’s not too hard to  imagine the media could find a riot in just about every corner of the world if they really wanted to and they really…really…. Want to!

Are things bad in the world economically?

Yes..

I’m not trying to downplay the troubles the media organizations are reporting on, but I am trying to point out that most of them would hyper inflate  and tea leaf read to the point that they are making a bad thing worse.

As precarious as the world may seem right now, what we all need is for the media, the free world media that is, to not fan the fires of unrest for the sake of a story.

I’m not advocating they should not cover a story, just review what they show and say for the sake of sticking with the facts. 

Lord knows we don’t need any help making things worse.

We have two nations on the edge of considering warfare for the sake of saving their current governments; three when you count Syria.

Oh ya.. Fat chance getting Al Jazeera to not read into every event where more than fifty people show up to protest.

I know they are chomping at the bit for a story in the US..

Let's hope it doesn't happen too soon.

PS... Iran would love, pray, for such an event.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201189165143946889.html

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44073673





THE THEME OF THE SPRING / SUMMER.. SOCIAL INJUSTICE or

“LETS GET SOME FREE SHOES”!!!

I am sure no one is shocked at this article by Al Jazeera.

“ Is the issue social injustice and economic imbalance” ?

Gee…. Where have we hear that before.

Let’s cut to the chase; Al Jazeera is asking the question “ has the Arab Spring come to England”?

My answer, surprisingly as it may seem ………..maybe!

You have to consider England is the classic example of a Socialist state that strives to give everyone everything in the name of being fare.

The problem with this concept is simple…. Where does it end?

If you noticed, it was the sporting goods stores along with shoe stores that have been vandalized.

What does that have to do with a known Drug, Gang member being shot by the Police?

Answer.

 NOTHING!!!!

Thugs looking to exploit a situation for their personal gain have nothing to do with protesting the death of a Gang Member.

Now, it’s a acceptable issue to ask the question, “ did the shooting simply act as the catalyst for a larger Issue… Al Jazeera’s point…

Again, I answer…… maybe, but I think the question would have never been asked if it the  Arab Spring had not been taking place.

So, is Al Jazeera “ tea leaf reading”?

I believe Al Jazeera, like most media organizations, is looking for a story and this is a story they have been promoting for months now.

Does England have a potential problem on it’s hands?

Yes..

If Al Jazeera and other media organizations can turn a Police shooting into an issue of “Social .. Economic Injustice, then they may have a self fulfilling prophesy”.

Interesting the similarities here between the concept of the Fundamentalist transforming  

Young revolutioanary motivated protest into events that bring about the downfall of governments.

Is Al Jazeera out to bring down the government of England?

NO!

Is Al Jazeera thinking they can be known for taking the lead on a potential social uprising in England?

Just remember Al Jazeera is a organization that is left of “ Left” and will remain loyal to any movement they believe is based on social injustice.. even when it may just be a case of Thugs looking to get free designer sports shoes.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2011/08/2011881845588629.html

BIG PICTURE ISSUES THAT PAINT A DANGEROUS SEPTEMBER AND FALL

Let’s take a look at three big picture issues that could very well set the course for the Middle East soon.

Syria and Turkey:

I think the talk of Turkish physical interdiction in Syria is closer to being a reality and the danger is both sides may see why this needs to happen.

Two months ago the rumor of Turkey opening a “ Safe Zone” inside of Syria was nothing more than just that a rumor. 

It is very possible the Turkish Military was told to draft a contingency plan for such an event given that is what militaries do…. Plan for actions..

Last week an arguably weak “rumor” was making its rounds  based on the possibility the Turkish Military Senior Commanders had stepped down over the issue of possible intervention in Syria.

I watched this story fall apart quickly, but not soon enough that some didn’t pick up on it.

Most “Rumors” have some small percentage of fact and in this case that small percentage could have been the planning process Turkey developed two months ago for the “Safe Zone” concept.

The truth of the matter is the Turkish Military leadership’s actions were based on a long standing conflict with the current government of Turkey.

Now for the Syrian side:

The open conflict witnessed all last week, even as Ramadan began, is a huge indication of just how desperate Assad has become.

Here is the million dollar question!

Has he become so desperate that he would contemplate actual hostile actions with another Nation State?

I have talked about this theory in the past, but the chances of it coming to reality became a great deal more disturbing with the following two articles’ release.

At the sake of keeping this post simple, let me try to argue why Turkey could soon be forced to make hard decisions.

If you have been following what I have been saying, you will remember my  belief in the potential struggle for control of the Middle East…. The Ottoman Empire Vs the Persian Empire.

It did not go unnoticed by Turkey how quickly the world reacted to the weak response by the UN on  Syria.

Turkey knows all too well the power of strong words following the limp reaction of the UN.

In the spirit of building the Ottoman Empire, Turkey could easily find it to their advantage to take strong actions.

For now, strong actions can be seen as sending a senior Turkish Official to call on Assad with the press release that the message this person delivers will be a stern warning.

It’s the type of posturing Turkey must show right now.

To say or do nothing, especially during Ramadan, would send a message to any potential follower, Egypt ect… that Turkey is more concerned with appeasing the EU and the UN than doing what is right.

Back in April I commented about the danger of becoming a “Leader”.

Well, Turkey is seeing that danger now.

Now back to my question stated above.

Will Assad risk conflict?

Lets turn this question around?

Why would he not risk conflict?

His supporters may leave him?

If Turkish troops set foot on Syrian land, no supported of Assad will leave him for it will not be about Assad, but it will be all about Syria.

If the warning by Turkey is truly as upfront as Turkey states it will be, Assad will have no choice than to respond with words just as harsh.

As soon as he does, you can look for a statement from Iran and Hezbollah.

Now, does that mean Iran will risk a regional war for Syria?

Go back to the same question asked about Assad?

At the point of Turkish troops setting foot on Syrian land, what choise does Iran really have?

The question of who will win the day in the Middle East.. The Ottoman Empire or the Persian Empire will have been answered.

Yes; the danger here is tremendous and what is even more dangerous is the “group think” that an event like this can not or will not happen.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&ArticleID=77186

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=77184

Saudi:

Paranoia continues to run deep in the royal family of Saudi Arabia.

Putting out a weak story about “amendments” to a law that basically says, “ if you take to the streets…. You are guilty of conspiring against the King” is a desperate attempt to soften the blow to public perception.

The story even hints the amendments may not get passed the “hardliners” in the Saudi leadership.

Bottom line; Saudi is getting ready for an event that keeps them up at night and gives them nightmares..

Seeing Mubarak in a cage must have sent chills down the spines of the Royal Family.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&ArticleID=77175

Israel and the month of September:

If Turkey and Syria have not blown the lid off the Middle East by September, than Israel may get it’s chance.

For months it has been obvious the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / will end up in Israel.

How it gets started has several options, but how it ends is practically set in stone.

Violence will be the theme of September and Iran / Hezbollah / Hamas  will insure that is true.

The question becomes does Israel preempt the pending events?

My bet is they do…

How do they do that?

Push Syria or Iran over the edge.

Why would Israel risk doing this?

Go back to the same question at the beginning of this post; the one asked of Assad and the one asked of Iran.

If Israel is in flames and riots rule the day as in Syria, what does Israel have to lose?

www.foxnews.com/world/2011/08/07/israeli-minister-cut-ties-with-palestinians/

Egypt and the “ I told you so”.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think I have already said thatJ …  this story is a classic “ I told you so”.

Imagine the concept of Left leaning, social liberal and their college professors deciding to pull away from the MB?

I’m shocked!!!!

I called them ideological fools the day I saw them standing next to the MB and I think they have now seen the light all be it a little too late.

It’s like Sheep standing up to Herder .. shoulder to shoulder with the WOLF!!!!

Egypt is light years away from becoming a stable Democracy; Western definition that is.

Fools!!

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=232836