WHAT WILL FRIDAY BRING?

Rumors of defections inside the Syrian military continue to make there way to the media.

Add to this the ever increasing evidence of sectarian violence  and Friday’s typical spike in public revolt and you have a recipe for above average violence in the next 24 hrs.

So, are there any real changes in Syria that are worth talking about?

Yes.

The idea that verified sectarian violence is starting to take place is a real change from the past four months.

The prospect of such violence is far more unsettling to Assad and Iran than to the common outside observer.

Most of the violence that has taken place in Syria has been Assad forces on public protestors.

This week’s violence between, ‘groups’ is a shift that has long been considered a key indicator of a devolving   environment.

From Assad’s perspective, it is and has been critical to keep the rest of the world from believing the situation is getting out of control.

Reluctance to take coordinated action against the Syrian government is a political reality that Assad has benefited from.

A key sign the world may be approaching a point of not being able to deal with events in Syria with simple words or weak-kneed sanctions is exactly what started to take place in the past week.

It’s one thing for the government forces to reap death and destruction on the Syrian public, but when the public starts to deal such actions on itself, it’s a true sign to the rest of the world the Syrian government has lost control.

Friday may not be a day of ‘group on group’ violence.

The public may be preoccupied with the military and ‘Thugs’ trying to kill them.

But, when the military and ‘Thugs’ have departed, does the public begin to take revenge on it’s own population?

If this is truly what is starting to happen in Syria, then Civil War, the fear everyone has had, could become a reality.  





DON’T  TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE BALL!!!

Old, trashed centrifuges; new centrifuges….. how many are really working…. Ect… ect. 

The most important sentence in this story is the line about Iran hiding it’s nuclear mission behind the Arab Spring.

Back in February, I commented the number one advantage the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / was providing Iran was a distraction from its nuclear program.

Iran very well could have estimated the ability of the Arab Spring to bring about ‘change’ in Iran would take long enough that an undetected nuclear program would have time to reach its goal.

An even more sinister concept would be Iran would allow its Allies / Syria and Hezbollah / Lebanon / to fall victim to the movement as long as Iran gained the time it needed to achieve its nuclear goal.

To put it simply, Iran could be in a drag race to reach nuclear recognition before the streets of Tehran become the streets of Hama.

I must admit, even I was forgetting my own theory of Iran hiding behind the Arab Spring, until I read this article.

Is this theory really possible?

Yes, I believe it is!!!

The mad dash to open more centrifuges is not a attempt to recover from the virus, STUXNET,  that struck last year.

The mad dash is to become a recognized nuclear power before the Arab Spring strikes in Iran.

The issue of the Ahmadinejad versus Khamenei plays into this theory as well.

Remember, Ahamdinejad is a Nationalist and his theory is the Iranian people will take great pride in being the first nuclear Arab power in the Middle East.

He believes this is so true, that the support for Khamenei  will swing back to him if he is the one that takes credit for achieving nuclear status.

Centrifuge operations is more than just increased capability.

To Ahmadinejad, it’s the survival of his dream of  the next Persian Empire.

A nuclear Iran would take the wind right out of the Arab Spring’s sails.

Now, remember last night’s discussion.

Baer’s comment about the coming war with Israel fits this ‘theory’ as well.

If people like me can come to this conclusion, just think what paranoid leadership in Israel can come up with.

http://www.debka.com/article/21133/

IRAN…. NUKES .. AND RUMORS OF WAR!

Well, if Iran or others are trying to stay in the top fold of the news this week, they are doing a fine job.

The attached article about the comments of Robert Baer and Meir Dagan is interesting not just in what it says, but in how it goes about validating the comments.

Leaving out the personalities of both Baer and Dagan, it is obvious their reputations make their comments worthy of review.

The  consistent anti Netanyahu theme of Al Jazeera is not overlooked as one of the main reasons why  they would cover this story.

I’ve not looked today, but I am sure this story played large in the Iranian media.

So, what validity does Baer have for making such a bold and dangerous statement of Israel planning to attack Iran this fall.

Yes, he has a fast background in the Middle East.

Yes, it is said he has a strong, working relationship with Israel’s  Mossad.

Given these facts, what are the odds he may be close to the truth?

Let’s look at a few facts that could prove and disprove his ‘theory’.

Possible supporting facts.

1.      Iran is heading down the road of no return given the events of the Arab Spring.

a.       The pending loss of it’s number one ally, Syria and the potential loss of operational influence over Hamas and last but not least the potential loss of Hezbollah control of Lebanon.

b.      The internal power struggle between Ayatollah Khomani and Ahmadinejad shows no sign of getting better.

Simply put, everything Iran has been working to achieve is in real jeopardy of not coming to fruition.

A War with Israel may be the only true rallying cry for the Iranian people; a war that would force the rest of the Arab world to chose sides.

2.      Israel simply can not accept a nuclear Iran; it’s a matter of perceived National Survival.

3.      Israel cannot risk the rest of the freeworld simply trying to solve this issue with  sanctions all the time knowing Iran keeps finding ways to get around them to buy time.

Reasons why Baer’s theory will not happen:

1. Israel realizes such a war would be unlike any event in their history.

a.       The amount of damage to Israel’s infrastructure would be at a level they have never had to recover from in the past.

2. The understanding by all of Israel’s Allies, few as they may be,  the impact such a war would have on the entire Region,  not to mention the oil production of the Middle East, would almost guarantee Israel would have to act ‘Unilaterally’, at least in the beginning.

1. By the time the initial attacks were underway, the damage to Israel would not be offset by her Allies coming to her aid.  

3. In the end, Israel might have to realize that although they prevented Iran from becoming a nuclear power, the damage to Israel both physically and financially, not to mention internationally, would forever change the course of her history.

1. What would “ The Day After” look like?

It is truly worrisome that several members, known for their expertise in their fields, are making such bold statements; sensational yes, but never the less….. very bold.

Paranoia in Iran runs deep right now.

Paranoia also runs deep in Israel right now.

The Arab Spring brings real challenges to both nation’s futures and both could be heading towards an attitude of “ nothing to lose”.

I don’t think they are there yet, but the news continues to be bad for both of them.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/201171775828434786.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/19/iran-acceleration-nuclear-angers-west



THE WEEK AHEAD:

SYRIA:

Yesterday, I talked about the concept of Syria’s resistance movement attempting to establish a Shadow Government and the obstacles  that would have to be overcome to make it happen.

When you read the attached article, pay attention to how many groups are attempting to be “heard”.

The issue brought up by the Kurds is a classic example of what I am referring to.

The concept of a “Democracy” is a land that has never seen anything close to that style of government, is simply not going to happen overnight.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/07/17/syria.unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Every journey begins with a first step, so I understand it is premature to discount what these groups are trying to accomplish.

There is another event taking place in Syria that is worthy of watching this week.

It’s a tactic that is not necessarily new to Assad’s Thugs, but it does seem the media is growing more aware of what they are up to.

In the attached article, you will see the main focus, from the media’s viewpoint, is based on small teams of “ Thugs” making themselves very visible to the public.

If you were out to simply terrorize a population, this tactic would make sense.

I contend the action of ransacking and beating people just ‘standing around’ is more than just terrorizing in nature.

It is entirely possible these “Thugs” are part of a two part action.

Team one creates and ‘event’.

Team two, who is covert, watches to see who responds and from where!

Yep… These actions often can be a staged event to ‘ smoke out’ the resistance.

Does the covert team witness who photos the event on their cell phones?

Does the covert team observe where these citiesens go after the crowds dispurse.

Sound unrealistic?

If you think so, then you don’t really understand the tactics of “ Secret Police” in the Middle East.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201171743046913892.html

So, what should we be watching for this week in Syria?

Assad will not move on Hama and that is good news for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

What may not be good news for the SMB is the price Assad and Iran place on the resistance in other parts of the country.

Assad seems to be getting better at the “ seek out and kidnap”  process.

Something I am sure the Iranians are teaching at a frantic pace.

Watch for what towns are ‘moved on’ and who is snatched when they go in.

If Assad is getting at detecting leadership members of the Resistance, then it will be easy to spot.

Let’s just hope the media is smart enough to understand this new, more refined operation.

JORDAN:

If you think the relationship with the King of Jordan is vital to the US and it’s allies, you are underestimating that relationship.

I would say Jordan is second only to Israel in terms of partnerships in the Middle East; perhaps tied with Saudi.

The King is far more level headed than any of the other recently, or pending, fallen Middle Eastern Leaders.

His level of caution is far more calculated than the kneejerk actions of leaders like Assad or Mubarak.

Here is a HUGE issue with the King that all the others didn’t have.

Most of the citizens of Jordan like the King!!!

That always helps when you are facing disgruntled crowds.

As I talked about several months ago, the problem with Jordan is it is tossed into the category of….. Middle East Monarchies.

That is not to say Jordan could stand to have a revised form of government and Lord knows the title of “King” is not doing the current leadership any good.

So, why is Jordan on the verge of having “problems”?

Two reasons:

1. The youth of the Middle East are on a full scale, anti Monarchy, kick!!

Yep, it’s the “vogue” thing to do right now!!!

2. The Muslim Brotherhood!!! Yep..

They have yet another name, but the storyline is the same.

                        Bla  Bla.. .Bla… .”The voice of the people ..... Sheri law…. Ect.. ect…

Jordan is yet another target of the Muslim Brotherhood’s master plan to destroy the concept of Sectarian Government throughout the Middle East.

Don’t believe this is the MB “Master Plan”?

Sorry…. It’s the truth!!

So, what do we watch for in Jordan this week?

The King will work hard to limit the damage from this weeks protest while at the same time try desperately to anticipate the next round.

Here is a little ‘insider’ information.

He is a good guy!! Really..

On a scale of one to ten, I would give him a six or seven.

Jordan’s number one problem will continue to be the MB.

How Jordan reacts and the future of the King will be heavily influenced by the elections in Egypt, whenever they happen, and the fate of Assad.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/2011717101657156758.html 

EGYPT:

Everyone seems to understand what the real issue is in Egypt.

Actually, there are two:

1. The whole world, even the ones who worry about Dancing with the Stars, understands the Egyptian Military is still calling the shots.

The Students and others are tired of this process and want it changed now.

Here is the problem with that.

Changed to what?

Where are the details of an ‘interim government’ that would lead to the elections?

What comes first; the elections or the DRAFT Constitution??

2. Yep.. The Muslim Brotherhood!!

Imagine that?

 You have seen me post about the MB plan for Egypt and any change right now is not called for in the Master Plan.

They want the elections and then the majority party will shape the new Constitution.

This new call for a new change is not what the MB wants.

So, what should we look for this week?

When push comes to shove, the MB is going to stick with the Egyptian Military and push for the elections to take place as soon as possible.

They may place a few talking heads out on the streets or in front of the media, heck, I saw a female on Al Jazeera stating she  represented the MB, “ new movement”. RIGHT!!!

If the military even begins to show signs of postponing the elections, the MB could very well openly turn on them.

That is when the real violence will hit the streets of Cairo.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201171792956867508.html

http://www.debka.com/article/21126/

BAHRAIN:

If anyone was foolish enough to think Iran had given up on interfering in the governmental affairs of Bahrain, then they don’t understand Iran at all.

A few quiet weeks based on the GCC deployment of troops doesn’t equate into ‘problem solved”.

Iran may have simply been waiting for the right time to reengage the issue of Bahrain and besides that, the issue of Syria has most likely been overwhelming for Iran.

It’s hard to be proactive in one location when the other locations are boiling.

Bahrain is and has been an option for Iran if it needs a ‘Distraction’ from Syria.

When the GCC moved in, it may have become an issue of ‘ too risky’ at that point in time.

Now, with Syria continuing to slide down hill and the GCC pulling back, at least for now, Iran could easily stir the pot in Bahrain.

On again… Off again… On again… That is how the Middle East works.

So, does Bahrain become a center stage event anytime soon?

No. 

Just because the GCC is physically moving troops out of Bahrain, that doesn’t mean Iran will pull the trigger on the option / distraction.

Bahrain may become an issue if the people of Bahrain make it an issue, but Iran will let things slide for the time being.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201171681543397725.html

YEMEN:

If you had to rank what country in the Middle East was the biggest mess right now, it would have to be Yemen; hands down!

Here comes yet another “ shadow government” brainstorm that has even less detail than the show taking place in Turkey.

Of all the groups talked about in the attached article, how many represent  AQAP?

When the dust settles over Yemen, AQAP may not run the whole country, but they will rule the area that they wish to rule and Saudi will be looking at it’s own version of the Beqaa Valley; hell it’s been close to that for several years now.

Yemen is the one country in the Middle East that stands the least chance of seeing any normalcy for years to come.

It is and will continue to be a huge thorn in the side of Saudi as well as the Western World.

Like central Africa, nobody really cares what happens in Yemen and very few are willing to do anything about what is happening.

To put it simply; Yemen is a complete mess and will  be a breading ground for AQAP for sometime to come.

My guess is it might become a bombing range for more than one country.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/2011716134720701985.html

The Arab Spring is now the Arab Summer and the Arab Fall / Winter / Spring is just around the corner.



Syria’s ‘shadow government?

Several weeks ago I talked about the concept of the Syrian Opposition trying to form a government in exile, inside Turkey.

Well; it appears, at least at first glance, that process continues.

Back when troubles were really getting out of control in Egypt, I mentioned the scene from Laurence of Arabia when all the tribes try to agree on who should do what.

As has always been the case, fighting, warfare, takes a great deal less cognitive thinking than building a governmental system that appeals to all parties involved.

Meeting in Turkey, like meeting in cyber cafés in Cairo, looks good on TV and the Web, but actually developing a working government doesn’t take place in a conference room of an upscale Motel.

Don’t get me wrong… Assad and Iran are not the least bit happy this event is taking place in Turkey.

I’m just not sold on the idea the factions inside Syria are really sitting down together and mapping out the future of Syria.

I did happen to see a Syrian Muslim Brotherhood spokesmen stand up a giving the same obligatory rant  they are giving in Egypt. “ The people must be heard”.

I always get a kick out of hearing an organization like the MB making such a statement.  ( Insert laughter here.)

I wish just one time one of them would stand up and say, “with the exception of the following.. Women… Non Muslims  ect.. .ect… “.

Yep, don’t buy this “centrist MB”  hype coming from the minds of the wishful thinkers of the world.

The state of Missouri in the US has as very appropriate saying, “ Show me”.

So, what does this meeting in Turkey really mean?

The early stages of a more unified opposition in Syria could be starting to take place.

The problem will be getting them to do anything other than meeting in a nice conference room.

How Assad and more importantly Iran reacts to this process is the real issue right now.

I would not focus on what this group says.

I would focus on what it does and what Assad does.

I didn’t add Iran in that last sentence given Assad will only do what Iran tells him to do.

His problem is, he is not very good at carrying out Iran’s orders!

I want to end this post by reemphasizing just how difficult it is to form a “ shadow government” especially when you have a desperate country like Iran willing to do almost anything to keep this concpet from taking place. 

It’s a wise move to be thinking about what needs to be accomplished IF Assad falls.

It’s a concept the youth of Egypt did not anticipate and frankly were not qualified to attempt. ( Watch the link attached and you will see what I am talking about.)

http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/thecafe/

 Syria continues to be the key issue in the Middle East.

The future of Iran, Hezbollah and Lebanon hang in the balance.

The  threat of a regional war hangs in the balance as well.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/2011716131429976477.html





WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK IN SYRIA?

If you didn't notice, something changed this week with the events in Syria.

Damascus had a much larger part in the Friday demonstrations.

That was a very disturbing event for not only Assad, but for Iran as well.

In my opinion, it's just another nail in the coffin of the Syrian Government.

The real "Redline" as far as the Syrian Government and Iran are concerned is Damascus.

Protest there, large ones, push Assad to the point of total violence or capitulation.

Damascus joining in increasing numbers is a signal to the Sunni Businessmen that Assad can not salvage the government.  

So, what could be the next steps taken by Assad and Iran.

When you get right down to it, Iran has two options:

            1. Continue to support Assad and pray something happens that changes the            landscape.....  Distractions... never forget my theory of distractions.

            2. Begin to  salvage a relationship with the next government of Syria.

There is no option of military interdiction in Syria for the rest of the world to include Iran.

Rumors of Turkey setting up a 'protectorate / free zone / in Northern Syria is simply not realistic; not at this time.

Having said this, it is simply unrealistic that Iran will simply standby and watch Syria fall into Sectarian warfare of worse, the hands of the Sunni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

The risk of warfare / regional warfare, grows as Syria continues to fall apart.

Hezbollah hold on Lebanon will not last if it's support from Syria is cut off by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Iran will never have the tools it needs for a war with Israel if it loses both Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This is no longer about the people of Syria or Assad.

It is quickly becoming an issue of Regional Stability.

P.S.  The city of Hama / Hamah ( Spelling ) is now the Benghazi of Syria.

THE WEEK AHEAD:


Two events took place this week that are worthy of review.

SYRIA:

 The repercussions from Ambassador Ford's trip into Hama have not been witnessed yet.

 
The Iranian response, or lack thereof, is interesting.

I think the whole event caught them completely off guard.
(Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall )

The French Ambassador showing up only added fuel to the fire
and probably gave validity to Assad's 'Conspiracy' claim.

Iran will answer this event; it's just a matter of how they
do so.

 Interestingly, Turkey seems to have ' no comment' on the two Ambassador's
'visit' to Hama.

They were ether part of the plan or they were not.

My bet is they were and are part of the plan and their part was to
have no comment.

A few days ago I said  Assad, in my opinion, had no choice but to move on Hama.

I must admit, I'm not sure how he could pull that off now,
given the visit by the two Ambassadors.

I still believe Assad can't afford to have his own version
of Benghazi in Syria.

Yep; it's a mess and Assad probably has Iran very upset with
him for letting the two Ambassadors be seen in Hama.

One thing surly happened; the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood   became more embolden thanks to these two visits.

With the US announcement  of the pending discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood, I'm wondering  who the real message was for?

So, this week, look for two things.

1. Look for Assad's response to Hama and in
that response will be the reaction to the US "meddling "  in Hama.

                Does that mean he will
                punish Hama?

                I don't know that he can
                without making the decision to take the resistance  to a whole new level of violence.

2. Look for Iran to respond, perhaps
providing guidance to Assad on how to deal with   Hama.

                Oh, by the way; the Gaza Flotilla II event
                was a complete bust!

                That did not sit well with
                Iran. ( Another botched distraction)

                Iran will take that missed opportunity  into
                consideration as they decide on how to send a message to the US over the
                Ambassador Ford event.



EGYPT:

Five months ago, when the events in Egypt were finally
coming to a boiling point, I made the statement I was not sure if the people
of Egypt understood what they had achieved.

I think the Egyptian people are now very aware of what they
did and did not achieve.

They did manage to have Mubarak removed.

They did not manage to move the machine that really runs
Egypt.. The Egyptian Military!

This time around, the real change is the lack of 'trust' by
the Egyptian people with the Egyptian Military.

"Change" is a concept that usually has many different
meanings even to people who think they are in the same group.

The speed of "Change" is another concept that has many
definitions .

The young and the less educated usually believe change is a
concept based on days, weeks at the most.

The older and more educated people have been around long
enough to realize two things.

                1. "Change" doesn't always mean things are going to get better.

                2. "Change" can take years, not days, weeks or even months.

                                a. The larger the change, like the entire structure of a countries' government, is not
                                going to happen in five months, but don't tell that to the youth of Egypt!

So, what should we look for in the coming week?

Watch the Muslim Brotherhood's  actions.

From day one they realized they were not the cause of the " Arab Spring",
but they did quickly figure out how to exploit the disruption to bring about their ultimate goal of governmental change.

I am convinced the plot on their part has been to let Egypt flounder for
months and then, when the timing is right, step in and try to provide
'guidance' out of the anarchy.

It is no coincidence the MB decided to 'join', code for begin to manipulate,
the protest this week.

It is time for ' phase two' of the MB master plan in Egypt.

Yes, the youth movement inside the MB is a distraction to the ' master
plan', but that faction inside the MB is being used to their advantage.

As long as you have clueless Western Journalist talking about the "new MB"
and the youth movement inside of it and how that youth movement may
'transform' the MB, ( Insert laughter here), the real leadership of the MB will see the whole process executing according to plan.

The MB knows the next stage is very.. Very important!

They MUST get the Egyptian Public to lose faith in the Egyptian Military!

The MB cannot execute the final takeover phase until the people abandon
the military.

One of two things is going to happen if they truly start to pull their support.

                1. The Military will become violent in a desperate attempt to keep
                Egypt from falling apart. ( Smiles in Iran and Syria at that point.)

                2. The Military will make a move on the MB and risk the public
                completely falling in line with the Brotherhood.  

Everyone needs to remember.

Egypt is not Syria, Yemen, Lebanon or Bahrain.

Five months ago, the world was stunned to see Egypt fall into near anarchy.

To watch it happen again will be even more unsettling to the region.

Anarchy or near Anarchy is spelled " Opportunity" in Iran and Syria.

Yep. Iran and Assad would just love to see Egypt slip into madness.

Remember my theory about ' Distractions'.

FINAL NOTE



YEMEN:

If anyone is watching the events in Yemen, it's Saudi.

It may not happen this week, but the battle for Aden is coming and several
key countries know the implications of Aden falling into the 'wrong hands'.

It's Summer and the Arab Spring, PS.. I still call it the Tunisian Virus, is
not sizzling  out as some Western Talking Heads think.

That sizzling sound.............. is a fuse!!!