THE WEEK AHEAD:

SYRIA:

Yesterday, I talked about the concept of Syria’s resistance movement attempting to establish a Shadow Government and the obstacles  that would have to be overcome to make it happen.

When you read the attached article, pay attention to how many groups are attempting to be “heard”.

The issue brought up by the Kurds is a classic example of what I am referring to.

The concept of a “Democracy” is a land that has never seen anything close to that style of government, is simply not going to happen overnight.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/07/17/syria.unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Every journey begins with a first step, so I understand it is premature to discount what these groups are trying to accomplish.

There is another event taking place in Syria that is worthy of watching this week.

It’s a tactic that is not necessarily new to Assad’s Thugs, but it does seem the media is growing more aware of what they are up to.

In the attached article, you will see the main focus, from the media’s viewpoint, is based on small teams of “ Thugs” making themselves very visible to the public.

If you were out to simply terrorize a population, this tactic would make sense.

I contend the action of ransacking and beating people just ‘standing around’ is more than just terrorizing in nature.

It is entirely possible these “Thugs” are part of a two part action.

Team one creates and ‘event’.

Team two, who is covert, watches to see who responds and from where!

Yep… These actions often can be a staged event to ‘ smoke out’ the resistance.

Does the covert team witness who photos the event on their cell phones?

Does the covert team observe where these citiesens go after the crowds dispurse.

Sound unrealistic?

If you think so, then you don’t really understand the tactics of “ Secret Police” in the Middle East.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201171743046913892.html

So, what should we be watching for this week in Syria?

Assad will not move on Hama and that is good news for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

What may not be good news for the SMB is the price Assad and Iran place on the resistance in other parts of the country.

Assad seems to be getting better at the “ seek out and kidnap”  process.

Something I am sure the Iranians are teaching at a frantic pace.

Watch for what towns are ‘moved on’ and who is snatched when they go in.

If Assad is getting at detecting leadership members of the Resistance, then it will be easy to spot.

Let’s just hope the media is smart enough to understand this new, more refined operation.

JORDAN:

If you think the relationship with the King of Jordan is vital to the US and it’s allies, you are underestimating that relationship.

I would say Jordan is second only to Israel in terms of partnerships in the Middle East; perhaps tied with Saudi.

The King is far more level headed than any of the other recently, or pending, fallen Middle Eastern Leaders.

His level of caution is far more calculated than the kneejerk actions of leaders like Assad or Mubarak.

Here is a HUGE issue with the King that all the others didn’t have.

Most of the citizens of Jordan like the King!!!

That always helps when you are facing disgruntled crowds.

As I talked about several months ago, the problem with Jordan is it is tossed into the category of….. Middle East Monarchies.

That is not to say Jordan could stand to have a revised form of government and Lord knows the title of “King” is not doing the current leadership any good.

So, why is Jordan on the verge of having “problems”?

Two reasons:

1. The youth of the Middle East are on a full scale, anti Monarchy, kick!!

Yep, it’s the “vogue” thing to do right now!!!

2. The Muslim Brotherhood!!! Yep..

They have yet another name, but the storyline is the same.

                        Bla  Bla.. .Bla… .”The voice of the people ..... Sheri law…. Ect.. ect…

Jordan is yet another target of the Muslim Brotherhood’s master plan to destroy the concept of Sectarian Government throughout the Middle East.

Don’t believe this is the MB “Master Plan”?

Sorry…. It’s the truth!!

So, what do we watch for in Jordan this week?

The King will work hard to limit the damage from this weeks protest while at the same time try desperately to anticipate the next round.

Here is a little ‘insider’ information.

He is a good guy!! Really..

On a scale of one to ten, I would give him a six or seven.

Jordan’s number one problem will continue to be the MB.

How Jordan reacts and the future of the King will be heavily influenced by the elections in Egypt, whenever they happen, and the fate of Assad.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/2011717101657156758.html 

EGYPT:

Everyone seems to understand what the real issue is in Egypt.

Actually, there are two:

1. The whole world, even the ones who worry about Dancing with the Stars, understands the Egyptian Military is still calling the shots.

The Students and others are tired of this process and want it changed now.

Here is the problem with that.

Changed to what?

Where are the details of an ‘interim government’ that would lead to the elections?

What comes first; the elections or the DRAFT Constitution??

2. Yep.. The Muslim Brotherhood!!

Imagine that?

 You have seen me post about the MB plan for Egypt and any change right now is not called for in the Master Plan.

They want the elections and then the majority party will shape the new Constitution.

This new call for a new change is not what the MB wants.

So, what should we look for this week?

When push comes to shove, the MB is going to stick with the Egyptian Military and push for the elections to take place as soon as possible.

They may place a few talking heads out on the streets or in front of the media, heck, I saw a female on Al Jazeera stating she  represented the MB, “ new movement”. RIGHT!!!

If the military even begins to show signs of postponing the elections, the MB could very well openly turn on them.

That is when the real violence will hit the streets of Cairo.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201171792956867508.html

http://www.debka.com/article/21126/

BAHRAIN:

If anyone was foolish enough to think Iran had given up on interfering in the governmental affairs of Bahrain, then they don’t understand Iran at all.

A few quiet weeks based on the GCC deployment of troops doesn’t equate into ‘problem solved”.

Iran may have simply been waiting for the right time to reengage the issue of Bahrain and besides that, the issue of Syria has most likely been overwhelming for Iran.

It’s hard to be proactive in one location when the other locations are boiling.

Bahrain is and has been an option for Iran if it needs a ‘Distraction’ from Syria.

When the GCC moved in, it may have become an issue of ‘ too risky’ at that point in time.

Now, with Syria continuing to slide down hill and the GCC pulling back, at least for now, Iran could easily stir the pot in Bahrain.

On again… Off again… On again… That is how the Middle East works.

So, does Bahrain become a center stage event anytime soon?

No. 

Just because the GCC is physically moving troops out of Bahrain, that doesn’t mean Iran will pull the trigger on the option / distraction.

Bahrain may become an issue if the people of Bahrain make it an issue, but Iran will let things slide for the time being.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201171681543397725.html

YEMEN:

If you had to rank what country in the Middle East was the biggest mess right now, it would have to be Yemen; hands down!

Here comes yet another “ shadow government” brainstorm that has even less detail than the show taking place in Turkey.

Of all the groups talked about in the attached article, how many represent  AQAP?

When the dust settles over Yemen, AQAP may not run the whole country, but they will rule the area that they wish to rule and Saudi will be looking at it’s own version of the Beqaa Valley; hell it’s been close to that for several years now.

Yemen is the one country in the Middle East that stands the least chance of seeing any normalcy for years to come.

It is and will continue to be a huge thorn in the side of Saudi as well as the Western World.

Like central Africa, nobody really cares what happens in Yemen and very few are willing to do anything about what is happening.

To put it simply; Yemen is a complete mess and will  be a breading ground for AQAP for sometime to come.

My guess is it might become a bombing range for more than one country.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/2011716134720701985.html

The Arab Spring is now the Arab Summer and the Arab Fall / Winter / Spring is just around the corner.