THE SYRIAN JOKE OF THE DAY!

 For Rami Makhlouf to announce he is going to dedicate his life to charity causes is not only laughable, but it's actually just sick!

I am always completely flabbergasted when I hear of some absolute Thug, Gangster, suddenly declaring they are taking the highroad.

You can always tell when these dirt bags are in trouble, real trouble; they suddenly start turning over a new leaf.

This Monster has made a fast fortune off the blood of the Syrian people thanks to his cousin Assad and his family.

Perhaps what is even more frightening are the people who actually think low life's like Makhlouf are capable of becoming decent  members of society.

Makhlouf smell the end coming soon and he is now trying to do damage control.

The people of Syria will not forget and they will not forgive!

What this does show us is just how worried the 'inner circle' of the ruling government is becoming.

For all the talk of 'everything is fine and a few thugs are the real problem', Assad and his band of thieves are realizing the end is near.

Don't underestimate what this announcement from Makhlouf really means.

Assad doesn't. 

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011617104839976447.html

SO WHERE DOES TURKEY GO FROM HERE WITH SYRIA?

Assad may not be acting like he is getting the message when Turkey talks, but I would bet he hears them loud and clear.

Stack this on top of his Brother chewing his ear and then at the same time Iran gives him tons of advice and that advice has probably now turned into ultimatums.

The picture I have been trying to paint for over two weeks now is a simple one.

Assad is running out of options and friends.

Turkey turning their back on him, and I'm not convinced that has happened past the point of no return yet,  must give him a feeling of total desperation. 

Assad may be praying for 'status quo' and everyday his forces only manage to murder a few of his citizens probably seems like a good day.

What I find remarkable are the nations that are still privately wishing and probably praying Syria calms down and Assad stays in power.

Most understand what the alternative is and that weighs on their minds more than the death toll.

I can't say that I agree with that theory, but the world is a very imperfect place and can get much worse.

Syria will set the course for Lebanon and Iran and as such it will set the fate of near term future for the whole region.

That is why most nations simply wish this event would just go away.

It is not going to.

It is going to get worse and I fear much worse.

Sometimes, the only news is bad news and bad news must be dealt with.

If a regional, sectarian war is about to unfold, and I'm not sold that has to happen, then minimizing the damage is a critical goal.

If a regional war based on Iran's inability to stabilize it's future is about to happen, the event I really fear, then again we must minimize the results.

No nation wants a war in the Middle East right now, but sticking our heads in the sand and praying it all goes away is far more dangerous than talking about the horror of such a war.



 IRAN TRIES TO HIDE BEHIND THE RUSSIANS.

Ahmadinejad talking about the era of slavery in the US is  another indication of just what a nutcase he really is.

Somehow he, like many others, thinks that talking about the US suddenly makes him look stronger or bolder! 

The problem is when he  babbles on like a idiot, it makes him appear just as he is; an Idiot!

Perhaps he has a bad case of 'Little Man' Syndrome as well?

Perhaps he should just stick one hand inside his Jacket?

Ahmadinejad knows all too well that showing up at a meeting with the Russians doesn't mean he will be able to hide under the  Russian Trench coat.

His country is in serious trouble and not one nation he met with today is willing to go to War to save him or Iran.

Russian loves Iran for the simple reason they  buy tons of military hardware from Russia and they have  spent a fortune on the Nuclear Power plant process.

Yep.. A chump with a lot of money to blow..

He is also probably trying to rebuild his image after his month long spat with the real ruler of Iran!

Spewing his incoherent hate speech about Israel and the US is not even playing well with his own people.

As he sits there and babbles away like a moron, the youth of Iran plot the demise of the Iranian Government.

Russia will not help him in a time of War.

The Russian government will not bail him out of a war.

The Russian government will simply wait for whomever takes over after a potential war and ask them how much money they have to rebuild the Iranian military.

Iran's time is short and they know it.

They can leave the region in a real mess and that is why someone will have to deal with them sooner  than most people think.

Maybe his magical  Genie can save him and Iran???

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/15/ahmadinejad-sco-united-front-against-us



THE CLASH FOR CONTROL!

For over three months now, I have tried to figure out who is going to win the bragging rights for the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring.

I still believe several  groups with visions of what the future should look like are trying to lobby for control of the movement.

1.  The Social Revolutionaries coloring the whole event as a battle of  ' social injustices' and oppressive governments.

The 'Redistribution of Wealth' is the end-state based upon the final destruction of tyrannical governments developed and supported by  'Colonial Powers'.

2. the Iranian vision of a 'Persian Empire' based upon an 'Arab awakening'; yep they are the Chief culprits in tying to hijack the 'Arab Awaking' slogan.

Iran is trying to achieving new dominance in the Middle East at the same time they are trying to keep the first mentioned movement, Social Revolutionaries, from infecting Iran's population.

Iran is in a race against time and they know it.

3. The Turks and their drive to become the dominant power in the Middle East.

Watching the intellectuals from all the Universities recommend a 'Turkish style' answer to kicking out the old Monarchies, is exactly what Turkey is looking for.

A 'kinder, gentler, Muslim faith based government is the picture that is being painted.

All three movements have their problems at the moment.

The Social Revolutionaries are great at  passive protesting, but writing a new government requires hard work and that means you can't sit around at the coffee shop all day playing on the internet!

Yes, they are going to have to grow up and face the real world and not the world their ideological Professors have painted for them. Hint.... .Egypt ... How is that new Constitution coming? Seems like I've heard the ' Change' speech before???

Iran; Well Iran is on the edge of pure panic.

Syria is a total nightmare to them and they know they have no real answer other than creating violence somewhere else.

A war with Israel is not the answer and would be the ultimate 'distraction', but that time may be coming.

Turkey seems to have things going their way and of the three movements, they seem to have the best chance of gaining outside support.

The US policy of ' lead from the rear' / hence our actions in Libya, has left the perfect void for Turkey and nobody seems to be that upset with the concept of Turkey taking a leadership role.

It sounds like things could be going Turkey's way, but for one potential disaster.

A sectarian conflict between the Sunni and Shi with a mixture of Persian vs Arab flavor.

Don't forget the GCC is on the verge of building their own version of NATO.

For Turkey to step up as a future leader in the Middle East would provide them a great deal of accreditation, especially in the eyes of the EU, but with that accreditation comes the responsibility of  being a 'leader'.   

Suddenly believing they are ready to take center stage in the Middle East could be a classic example of,

 " be careful of what you ask for".

To the Arab, seeing the Ottoman Empire reemerge could be a huge perception problem.

It is much easier to want to be a 'Leader' than to actually be one!

LEBANON NEW GOVERNMENT

Prime Minister Najib Mikati finally pushed through the Hezbollah dominated government for Lebanon.

The question now becomes, how long does it last?

Rumor has it the STL indictments could be out by the end of June or early July and the news will not be good for Hezbollah.

Having defections  on the same day the new government is announced is probably a sign of things to come.

Given the tensions of the border with Syria and the nervousness of Iran over Syria, the UN is very cognizant of the timing of the STL investigation.

Never the less, I do not predict the UN will delay the findings any longer than they all ready have and it could be certain countries are pushing the UN to release the information sooner rather than later.

The timing of Hezbollah being accused of assassination and the emotions of this topic in Lebanon is a formula  for violence.

As I have said in the past, Iran can ill afford for Hezbollah to get bogged down in a civil war in Lebanon thus taking away a key component of Iran's war plan for Israel.

Keeping Hezbollah and Hamas ready to open multi fronts on Israel's border is the strategic design for Iran.

 Losing influence over Hamas to the MB in Egypt is a troubling aspect of the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring / and Iran must weigh it's options carefully.

The Middle East is a complex game of Chess still and the new government in Lebanon and a pending UN release on the STL are going to be vital pawn movements in the game.

http://www.lebanonnews.net/story.php?rid=46112672

ABDULLAH AND JORDAN TRYING TO BUY TIME

Jordan's decision to join the GCC may take on a whole new level of importance.

It could be the King's announcement is a pre cursor to joining the GCC.

Instead of just joining the GCC with the appearance of being inflexible, the King may have set this event into motion  thereby easing the response of announcing the GCC issue.

I find it interesting the MB came out against the King relinquishing all of his powers.

They probably have an attitude of, "one step at a time" and realize such a dramatic  move on the King would only make matters worse.

The MB has is in no hurry.

Just about everything in the Middle East is going their way.

So, does the King's concept of joining the GCC become a 'game changer' for Jordan?

Probably not!

This concept seems to be based more on countering Iran than countering the ' Tunisian Virus'.

That would not alleviate the King's desire to show the people of Jordan he is not simply running away from the reform issue.

What he would be doing is  changing the Jordanian public's attention by introducing the growing threat of Iran!.

One thing is for sure; change is on its way for Jordan!

Will it lead to the King losing his power?

Probably not.

He will never turn to the level of violence that we have witnessed in Egypt, Libya and Syria.

The MB has no real desire to bring Jordan to a level of insurrection; at least not just now.

Who would benefit from such an event is Iran.

Iran's needs are simple.

They need trouble for everyone else in the Middle East other than Syria and Iran.

Yet another chapter to add to the Middle Eastern book of events.

Stay tuned.

This weeks is going to be all about Syria, not Jordan!!

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201161220291224509.html

ALEPPO... A KEY ISSUE FOR THE SYRIAN REVOLT.

The town of Aleppo is now reporting 'protest'.

As stated in the article, perhaps somewhat understated, the town of Aleppo is a key turn in events.

From the viewpoint of Assad, the idea of keeping the 'middle class/ business owning, Sunni population, especially is Aleppo, out of this revolt has been a vital issue.

For the people who make Syria work day to day, the issue of the Sunni business class taking sides in this event is a tipping point.

Two days ago I said the use of rotor wing assets would have to be an option given the desperation level Assad is starting to reach.

Seeing the people of Aleppo take to the streets will only make his panic worse.

Another key event began to take place yesterday and today.

Turkey's threat to open a 'buffer zone' on the border with Syria is a dire warning! 

Countries do not open 'buffer zones' on their own land.

They open them on the land of the country in trouble.

The real message here is Turkey is telling Assad Turkish troops could set foot on Syrian soil!

 This message will not go unnoticed, especially in Iran!!!

Iran can ill afford to have Turkey ether come to the aid of Syria, thus pulling them away from the Iranian sphere of influence, or place troops on Syrian soil, thus showing Iran who the real power broker is in the region.

Remember something I talked about several months ago; the dream of an Iranian / Persian Empire / is NOT the vision of the Turks!

Here is an interesting issue.

What do Iran and Turkey have in common with the events in Syria?

They both are worried about substantial gains for the Kurds.

The Kurds are not going to rest with achieving a slice of Iraq and Syria.

If they can carve out part of their ' Kurdastan',  in Syria and Iraq, then they will be more than inspired to push the issue in Iran and Turkey.

Who helps Syria and how they both deal with the Kurds is going to play itself out over the course of the next few weeks.

My opinion:

Assad is on his last leg and Iran is looking to find someone knew they can deal with in Syria.

It will not be his brother or his Cousin.

Look for Iran to do something soon!

They need a distraction larger than a few protestors being shot at by the IDF.

Bahrain comes back on the table or even Lebanon.

If they don't go the route of the 'distraction', then they must concentrate on finding someone to run Syria that doesn't fall into the arms of Turkey.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/11/eyewitness-around-2000-syrian-army-officers-defected/