LEBANON NEW GOVERNMENT
Prime Minister Najib Mikati finally pushed through the Hezbollah dominated government for Lebanon.
The question now becomes, how long does it last?
Rumor has it the STL indictments could be out by the end of June or early July and the news will not be good for Hezbollah.
Having defections on the same day the new government is announced is probably a sign of things to come.
Given the tensions of the border with Syria and the nervousness of Iran over Syria, the UN is very cognizant of the timing of the STL investigation.
Never the less, I do not predict the UN will delay the findings any longer than they all ready have and it could be certain countries are pushing the UN to release the information sooner rather than later.
The timing of Hezbollah being accused of assassination and the emotions of this topic in Lebanon is a formula for violence.
As I have said in the past, Iran can ill afford for Hezbollah to get bogged down in a civil war in Lebanon thus taking away a key component of Iran's war plan for Israel.
Keeping Hezbollah and Hamas ready to open multi fronts on Israel's border is the strategic design for Iran.
Losing influence over Hamas to the MB in Egypt is a troubling aspect of the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring / and Iran must weigh it's options carefully.
The Middle East is a complex game of Chess still and the new government in Lebanon and a pending UN release on the STL are going to be vital pawn movements in the game.
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