THE UNITED STATES:

A NATION DIVIDED CANNOT STAND.

PART THREE:

WHAT IT COULD LOOK LIKE.

For the last two posts, I've have tried to paint a picture of why the US is heading into uncharted waters. These are waters that could challenge the very future of the nation. So, now it's time to address the two primary scenarios that could send the US into these waters. As a reminder, this discussion is based upon my opinions and at the end of the day, I could be dead wrong. I doubt I am, but no one I know has a real crystal ball. As I said, two scenarios worry me, and both can lead to the same results. With that, here we go! 

The fall of Cities: 

How fragile as modern-day cities?  Major cities of 2019 are very different than that history is based upon. How many times have you heard some version of the statement, "technology is both a curse and a blessing"?  Could a large city 100 years ago survive without the support of the countryside? No. Can a city, just about any size, now days survive without the countryside? Nope! Did the people in those cities 100 years ago realize this fact? Most likely? Do the city dwellers of today realize their dependency? I bet not, and that folks, it the scene setter I intend to provide you. 

What happens if those who hate the President hear the coup attempt, Impeachment, has failed? Then, after it becomes clear any chance of pushing the President out of the White House, that same segment of the US, reported being at least half the nation, if you believe the MSM, wakes up to the reality the man they despise has won reelection? Would that segment of the nation rise up? It seems some are almost planning to make that event happen. Let's just assume the, "We hate Trump" movement decides to turn violent. Sound unrealistic? With the rhythm of protest in the rest of the world and those who would love to stoke that fire, I'm not very confident you can place this scenario in the unrealistic category. So, for the sake of argument, let's push with the idea of the, "We hate Trump" movement taking to the streets. 

Where do the, " We hate Trump" people predominantly live? Yep, in the cities, and yes, the suburbs of the large cities. If this segment of the US society turned violent, how bad would it get and how long might the violence last? Two great questions that are very, very difficult to predict but, once again, this post is all about my opinion, an opinion based on a continuous analysis of where the US stands. Here is how you break down the items that help you come to a conclusion on both questions. 

1. What percentage of a movement needs to turn violent in order for social media and the MSM to give the people in the US and the world the perception of a real crisis? Remember my comments about the Arab Spring; the events in Egypt and Syria? My point. A very small segment of society can drive a nation, even the US, into a full-blown panic. By the way, what happens to the stock market during events like this? Yep, you and I both know the answer to that question. How long could such a violent incident last? How long would it need to last if small, organized groups, supercharged larger groups of emotional believers? It's a formula that has proven effective over and over again. Truthfully, the numbers are not as important as the planning and the response. Response. Overreact or under-react, these are sensitive parts of the formula. Bottomline. The size is not that important. The planning, persistence, media coverage, amplified by coverage area, that dictates the answers to, "how long would it last and how violent would it get"? 

Some of you who read this post will remember the 60s. If not, you've most likely heard the stories of protest that were violent and prolonged. What was the issue that brought this crisis to the US? Was it the war in Vietnam? Yes. Was it the Civil Rights movement? Yes. Where their nation-states involved in making this time period even more dangerous than it was on its own? yes. How long did it last? Here is the scary answer; years! Did the 60s nearly bring the US to the edge of collapse? The real answer is far more frightening than you might think. As bad as the 60s were, that point in US history didn't have a critical ingredient that now exists, Social Media. If that fact is not enough to worry you, let me add one more. The level of entitlements in the 60s compared to today, well, it's not even close. What was the percentage of the federal budget allocated to entitlements in the 60s compared to 2019? Look it up and you will see my point. The 60s were dangerous for the US and the US knew it. The 60s shook the foundations of the US and the enemies of the US did everything in their power to make that fact as dangerous as possible. Does history repeat itself? You bet it does. Where did the riots and protest of the 60s take place? In the cities, the large cities, with the exception of some of the Civil Rights protests. Did the people of Wentzville Missouri suffer from the anti-war riots? No. Did the people of Dodge City Kansas suffer? No. I could literally list thousands upon thousands of additional small towns and cities in the US, but I think you get my point. The The 60s. An example of where the US may be heading, but this time, pulling out of the dive may be much more difficult. 

The " We hate Trump" movement takes to the streets in November of 2020. What streets? You know the answer. Do the people in Wentzville Missouri really care if riots lead to the major cities becoming scenes reminiscent of Syria or Egypt? Not really. Yes, it would upset them given the coverage such events would be given, but at the end of the day, would the people of smalltown America drive on with their lives? Yes, to the greatest extent possible. 

If the " We hate Trump" movement was able to keep this crisis boiling for months, would the people in smalltown America stop producing the food that feeds the nation? No. Would the protestors still need to eat? Unless they turn into Zombies, that answer is obvious. Would these prolonged riots and protests impact the economy? Yes. Could they impact the economy in a dramatic fashion? That would depend on the perceptions of those who control the economic strings, but the simple answer is yes. Would such an economic crisis impact smalltown America? Yes. Would it impact the world? Yes. Would smalltown America come to a standstill? No. would the world? No. Adjustments, that's what would take place, adjustments. It's the natural order in this world. We all adjust. All nations, adjust! If the right ingredients, ingredients I covered over the past two days, come together at the right moment in time, with the wrong response, whatever that might be, then the US may find itself in a spiraling decline like I said, a dive the country may not pull out of. In the end, the actions of the, " We hate Trump" movement can damage the nation beyond repair. Then, a new normal is achieved. The Nation, would, adjust! 

Flyover country: 

Last night, I mentioned the theory of, " enough is enough". What did I really mean? Was I referring to the, " We hate Trump" movement? No, although it could apply. My intention, if I was successful, was to begin the process of producing a warning. Not a warning about the, " We hate Trump" movement, but a warning about the actions of flyover country. 

It's March of 2020 and the MSM is gitty over the live announcement that enough so-called Republicans in the US Senate voted for Impeachment that the President was going to be removed from office. Sound impossible? How well do you know the Republican members of the Senate? Recall my first post in this three-part series. Recall my comments about what really matters to the political leaders in the US. Power and staying in power. If voting to remove the President relieves the threat to just enough of the Republicans of losing their seats, then you better think twice about what you believe about the Senate. In order to paint my scenario, let me assume this vote takes place, by the way, I think there is a real chance it might happen. The " We hate Trump" movement is once again wild in the streets, a great movie by the way, and the cities become the target.

 Here is the difference in this scenario, and it's a dramatic difference. Flyover country. That part of America where the support for the President is alive and well. Not only is the support alive, it's angry, really angry, angrier than it's been in decades. President Trump, the man who was not supposed to win. the man who was legally elected. The man who said he would go to DC, the most unpopular section of the US, and, "Drain the Swamp". That man has been torn from office. That President who has been removed in a process that has the perception of a Coup! The man flyover country supports, yes, not all of it, but the majority of it, has been removed from office by a movement that stands for nothing flyover country believes in. Full-Term Abortions, No control of illegal immigration, greater taxes in order to increase the entitlements that secure the needed votes. The divide within the nation now has become a crack so wide, so deep, the foundation of the US is in doubt. Flyover country announces to the government and the world, "enough is enough"! 

In the scenario about the collapse of the US's major cities, the primary area of concern were the major cities themselves. In the "enough is enough" scenario, the impacted area is very different. Will the people of "enough is enough" march on the major cities of the US? probably not. Why would they? Why would they drive into enemy territory? Would they march on DC? Perhaps in the beginning, but that tactic would only be a scene setter to a much more impactful series of events.  Would it have an impact on the nation if Wentzville Missouri held a protest march? No. Would the world watch? No. Would the enemies of the US watch? Yes. Stange answer? Think about it. What would be the reaction of the, "enough is enough" movement? How would the flyover country respond to the President being removed in what they believed was a coup? Let me take a shot at giving you a few options to ponder. 

1. Flyover country simply goes back to work. You see, that is what they do, they work. That's all they know and the entitlements, well, they go somewhere else, they go to the Pen locations. Okay, farm subsidies, I get it but do the math. What percentage of the federal budget are we talking about? Okay, let's move on. How likely is this option to happen? To be honest, that depends on what happens after the successful coup event. If in November of 2020, flyover country / " Enough is Enough" country wakes up to the new Socialist / Democratic Party, taking over the WhiteHouse, I think this option has little to no chance of coming true. 

2. Flyover country decides to protest but to do so in a way that makes the government panic. Can Cities produce food? Rember this conversation? Do cities produce power? Where are most power plants located? What large city wants to look at something as ugly as a powerplant. " Put those things out of sight"! No food and now power, what does a large city do? They demand the government do something, that's what cities do, they "demand". Remember, everyone in those large cities is entitled to food and power. If the loony left assumes control after a coup, the flyover people are expected to do what they are told, provide for population centers, the large cities. But what if that food and power don't come? What if the people who make those two things happen simply decide to sit on their collective hands? Now what? Does the new government warn the flyover people? How do they do that? Do they warn the governors? Does anyone think the people who would be upset listen to Governors? Drive out to Burnet county Texas and tell the people who live there, " The Governor orders you to send meat to the stores so the cities can eat". Does that sound crazy? Just how upset do you think these people would be if they truly believed a coup had taken place against the President they supported? Here is one better for ya. Would the Governors of Flyover country listen to such a demand from the new federal government? If not, then what? Does the new government have enough members of Homeland Security, don't get me going on that organization, or the FBI to enforce the demands on flyover country. Side Note: Don't forget my statements about percentages of people. Does everyone in the flyover country have to go along with the resistance/protest? Think about it. 

After a week or less, it becomes clear most of the stores in the US, stores that operate on Just in Time Vending, have little to offer. Again, think I am being melodramatic? I've worked pre and post-crisis events such as Hurricanes. Have you ever seen a store when even the rumor of a Hurricane is about to make landfall? Now, what does this new government do? By the way, the Vice President is being painted into this Coup attempt on the President so his future is in doubt as well. Besides, once enough so-called Republicans lose their spine, who is really running the country anyway? 

No food is being distributed and nobody is working at the powerplants. Who works in those food processing plants and where are they located? Yep. You know the answer. It's the end of week one of the flyover part of the nation sitting on their hands and instead of having one major city without food or power, after an issue like a Hurricane, the nation has hundreds. Now what? 

The federal government calls in the National Gaurd. Wait. Who does the National Gaurd work for? I get it, your answer is going to be, " the government would nationalize the Guard". Let's talk about that for a minute and believe me, I've had this conversation on many occasion and at the highest level, you can think of. 

Where does the majority of the US military come from? Do they come from major cities? No. Do they come from flyover country? For the most part, yes, that's exactly where they come from. Does that statement hold true for the National Gaurd, the National Guard of the flyover states? Yep. What orders would the military or the Nationalized Nation Guard be given? Round up the cows and chickens? process the dairy and grains? What would they do, make the people who push the food to the rest of the nation do so at gunpoint? What's that part of the oath about, "lawful orders"? Who interprets that concept? The Generals in DC? Who are they if the rank and file members of the military don't agree? I once made a comment back in the 90s, at a place far from the US. " A general with troops who will not follow him is a man dressed like a movie star". Does anyone in DC, the Swamp, think for a minute the US military would consider it a lawful order to force those that produce food and other items to start doing so again? Does DC believe the tactics of FDR in the 30s would really work? Ah, that thing called Social Media. What a difference it has made. 

Okay, at the start of week two, most likely sooner, the nation is in a full-blown crisis. Entitlements can't produce what the political leaders don't control. The major cities in the US, the ones that were full of the, "We hate Trump" folks dancing in the streets are now back to the first scenario. Riots are the order of the day. The economy? Well, Wall Street is so bad off, the markets are closed for the foreseeable future. What of the rest of the world you ask? Good question. What does the rest of the world look like when the US is truly on its knees? Just how far and wide does the death spiral travel? It's the end of week two, and flyover country is providing meals for those around them. The, "enough is enough" gang, well, they know one thing. They know how to adjust! What becomes the new normal? That's a good question, but I will guarantee you one thing, the "adjustment" will be made by those that no how to survive. By the way. I just moved to flyover country:)! 

My last comment:

Several years ago, one of my Majors, a strategic planner, came to me and said, "Sir, you have to see this. DHS is actually holding an exercise over a Zombie Apocalypse". I have to admit, when I started to watch the video, I couldn't believe my eyes, then I noticed something. The roleplayers in the video didn't look like zombies. they seemed to be just people wandering aimlessly. By the time we figured out what was actually taking place, the answer was even more concerning. DHS was practicing for a post-apocalyptic event where large roaming masses of people needed to be controlled. The attempt at comedy came from the fact someone had forwarded video from the exercise with the title of, "Zombie Apocalypse".  Think none of what I have stated here today can't happen? Try convincing DHS? 

I'm going to post a podcast tomorrow as I attempt to wrap all three blog posts on the topic of the stability of the US into one narrative. 

Coldansviewpoint. That's where you will find the post on Itunes.