CULIACAN. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MEXICO AND THE US? 

It's been two days since the Mexican government caved, once again, to the terrorist cartels. Was anyone surprised? Those that don't understand the leadership of Mexico may have been. As for the rest of us, Culiacan was the most extream example to date of the failed leadership of Mexico City. Should the military have slugged it out with the terrorist? No. Should someone have prevented the poorly planned operation from taking place? Yes. Okay, the fighting is over, for now. Now what? Everyone was quick to jump to the cable networks and give their regurgitation of what happened, but did anyone provide an analysis of what the event in Culiacan could lead to? The US mainstream media is about flashy/shiny objects that result in ratings and that means paid sponsors. Yep, they are about the $$$$$. If nobody wants to take the time to paint the picture of what Culiacan could lead to, then you can bet I will. So, let's go......I'll drive!

Let me start with the two most important issues and yes, they are in order of importance.

Morale: 

A little over a month ago, I think, I posted a story about the impact of AMLO's decessions on Mexico's military's morale. Back then, the issue was based upon small squads being overrun by the public and humiliated. The story goes, the so-called, "public" was upset with the actions of the units. Why did I say, " so-called"? Because people like me didn't believe the upset public pitch. As I stated in my post, these "so-called" members of the public were most likely paid by the terrorist cartels to pose as civilians. it was a great way to block the actions of the units while limiting how the military could react. Why did the units not resist? AMLO, that's why? If you want to know more about that story, go read my post on the Mexican military's morale; " The Mexican Military. What is taking place".   Okay, back on track. Just what is the overall morale of the rank and file of the Mexican military? I've not seen any official survey results, but I would love to. By the way, sometimes, things like that take place, but they are very....very clandestine, and with that, I've said enough! Let me make the logical assumption, the morale of the military is in the gutter. It's low from the highest-ranking member to the lowest. Some may put on a good act, but how in the world could any of them be happy with how they are being treated and supported? Are they loyal to the nation? Yes, at least a vast majority of them. Are they willing to sacrifice to make Mexico safe? Absolutely. Does leadership in Mexico City care? If some of them do, they are shoved aside by those who don't. I'll go back to the issue of vehicles to make my point. Pickup trucks. The military and the police have been left to fight 90 percent of the insurgency battles from pickup trucks.

Morale. It was bad before Culiacan. So, ask yourself; where is it now? Pushed into a battle inside the absolute stronghold of the terrorist cartels with no real plan and no true support. How do you think the unit membres felt when they were captured by the terrorist? How did military leadership react to the reality they had to let Chapo's Son, and others, go in order to save greater damage to the city? Just how tired are they of the current Tellatuby leadership in Mexico City? Morale. It's an issue and it's a very, very dangerous issue. Why? Let me drive on and I will explain towards the end.

Mexico's People:

Do the people of Mexico truly believe their government is going to make their lives better? Do they feel their government keeps them safe, you know, the basic premise of governance? Do the people truly believe Mexico City cares about the rest of the nation? Is Culiacan just another chapter in the neverending story of failed leadership? If the answer to these questions is, "yes", then ladies and gentlemen, we have a recipe for a complete disaster in Mexico. Can Mexico turn into Venezuela or now, Chile? Can the US's number one trade partner go the way of Albania? Yep, I've addressed this issue as well, and I've done so in the past two or three months.

Formula:

 
What's this formula for a nation nearing collapsed status? Most will tell you, the major factor is that  nation's economy. Is Mexico's economy nearing a danger zone? Take a look at the reviews of AMLO's 2020 budget outline and you may have your answer. Pay even closer attention to PEMEX's forecast. AMLO states it's great, but don't pay attention to AMLO's dreams. Read what the oil market forecasters have to say. Now, remember, PEMEX is the cash cow for everything the Mexican government invents. Here is the reality. The Mexican economy is not as far down the road to ruin as the morale of both it's military and public, but it will catch back up quickly the way AMLO is going.

Short Answer:

Leadership without the support of the public is forced to use its military to keep order. Leadership that loses the support of the military and the public, well, that's leadership standing at the edge of the cliff with everyone behind them pushing. 

The Future: 


Can anyone truly predict the future of a nation in crisis? Let me give you a hint. As I was preparing to deploy troops to Albania, the analysis was, that nation was in trouble but would survive until the US and others arrived and restored stability. Well, the "experts" were wrong.......dead wrong! Albania's government and society fell like a stone off a tall bridge and by the time the US military began to set up, the place was a completely collapsed nation-state, and I mean, completely!

Does the crisis that is now Culiacan indicate the pending collapse of Mexico? I and none of those like me can make that prediction. Here is the realty the people in the US, especially along the border with Mexico, must realize. The US government is not going to paint a dire picture of its number one trade partner, and that is really not going to happen in a presidential election cycle. Is there a valid IC analysis of such a threat? If there is, and I would bet there are some rather serious conversations taking place over Mexico, you can bet it will not reach the White House. But then again, if it did, rest assured the MSM would find a way to make it Trump's fault. Look. The reality is right in front of everyone to see. Mexico is heading in the wrong direction and everyone, everyone who will admit it, knows that statement to be true. Culiacan was the worst example yet, but it is undeniable. The people of Mexico are witnessing a city of over 800K, I thought it was 700, but it seems it's now 800, be capitulated to the terrorist cartels. At the same time, the rank and file of the military wonder what the future holds? The senior leadership has to be doubting the vision of Mexico City, and they are living with this doubt as they try to keep the morale of the ranks from collapsing. Did Culiacan create a window into the future of Mexico? No one knows for certain, but no one ever knows anything for certain. People like me, we work off of facts, trends, and historical data. Put these three topics together for Mexico and I would strongly recommend someone in DC / the Pentagon /  have a "plan" ready for a very bad day in Mexico. A day even worse than two days ago.  A plan. Yep, I addressed that issue as well. Just go search my blog site with the words, "Mexico and Buffer Zone" .  AMLO is Nero and Mexico is Rome. The US's number one trade partner is controlled by terrorist drug cartels. Someone tell me how the Kurds and Northern Syria is worthy of anyone's attention in DC. There ya go. My follow up the event in Culiacan. See if you find anyone else that breaks it down.