CRUISE MISSILES FROM KHUZESTAN? A "GAME CHANGER"?

Iran and the Mullahs, a topic that just seems to get worse and worse with each passing day. As much as I would like to stay focused on Mexico and the cartels, it's obvious my old "passion", the Middle East continues to be the hot topic. How many times have I addressed the Issue of Tehran in the past several months? A lot.... more than a lot....I would say it falls in the category of a sh.... well, I better not express myself that way as I may have some intellectuals reading these post, maybe! To say a lot has taken place since my last post on the actions of the Mullahs is a given and in the interest of saving time, let me summarize my last twenty or so post. The old men in Tehran and both desperate and emboldened. Crazy combination I know, but the fact is, it's the truth. 

Desperate because the actions of Team Trump have ripped apart Tehran's ability to make money. 

Desperate because the Tehran thought other nations would come to their economic rescue have not done so, at least not at the level the Mullahs demanded....yes.....demanded....and that is one of the reasons the aid has been slow or nonexistent. 

Desperate because Moscow is maintaining control over Syria's future, regardless of what Tehran desires. Yes folks, Tehran is remains a proxy, all be it a reluctant and even hostile one, of Moscow. To have Syria's future cast in Moscow is not the dream of the Mullahs.

 Desperate because they continue to witness their proxy groups repeatedly attacked by Israel and the US, if the truth be known, while the Russian anti air networks sit idle. 

Desperate because the Mullahs know the youth of Iran grows more restless with each passing day. The " In Crowd / IRGC Al-Qud senior leaders, not the rank and file and that is a point I hope I can get back to, eat and shop while the rest of the nation begs for scraps. 

Okay. That's a lot of desperate. Let me move on to "Embolden".  

The old men in Tehran are embolden by the lack of actions by The Donald!  Tweets, and a few extra ships and troops in the area are not enough to convince them their time is nearly up. 

Embolden by the fact that each time Tehran turns up the heat with a new, more dramatic event, nothing happens. 

Embolden by the constant attacks on The Donald over not getting the US involved in yet another conflict in the region. 

Embolden by the Sultan's support for the Mullahs, ya... The Turks and the Persians are going to hold hands with the Russians! Has anyone read a history book about the region? That whole mental picture cracks me up. 

Embolden by the French. Yes, the French. The country that rights checks to try and keep Tyrannical leaders at bay. Side note. The French military leadership must have a hard time working for a real live Teletubby.   

Okay. about twenty or thirty of my post summarized in a half a page. Not bad for a guy who can ramble on for hours. Now, let's get down to the nuts and bolts. Let's take a look at what just took place and what it could lead to.

Rumor has it, this is where part of the attack came from. It sounds like we shall soon see if the US verifies this rumor. If and I stress if, this is true, than Tehran's attempt to increase the temperature of this crisis just went up dramatically. Is it critical what target was chosen? Was the fact that target struck was ARAMCO the real issue? No. Aramco has been hit before, yes, not to this extent, but it's been a target in the past. Why did the US center it's statement about the event around the launch location of the attack? If the rumor is true and the US is going to verify the launch locations, why does that become the center of gravity for this stage of the crisis game from Tehran?  Well, just look at the map above and you have your answer. If the US or anyone else is to accuse Tehran of attacking the worlds oil industry, something they've been doing by the way, then showing that attack's origin coming from Iranian soil is a HUGE issue!  

How:

How did a series of cruise missiles fly from the Khuzestan region of Iran, or any other area for that matter, and the US didn't see it coming? Can cruise missiles fly around a region that has more surveillance taking place than any other area in the world? Was this an intelligence failure like some of the party hacks and so called "experts" in the US are saying? Does Moscow and Beijing really believe that could happen? Remember when everyone was wondering how Israel could just fly into Syria, a Syria covered by Russian air defense, and bomb Iranian proxies? What happened here? If you want me to tilt my head with confusion, this is the issue I'm stuck on. How, or maybe better yet, why? Yep, I said it. Why? Why, the world that indicates prior knowledge. Did we know the attack was coming? Would we let unannounced cruise missiles fly a path that most likely took them over or forces in the area. Yes, they may have hugged the Iranian coastline, but that wouldn't have stopped us from taking action.  I don't like what I am insinuating here, but I have two choices. 1. The US didn't know the weapons were launched, a realty that terrifies me. 2. We did know they were launched, but we knew where they were going and we decided not to take the bait. Bait! 

Bait:

Every single action taken by the old men in Tehran can be tossed into the category of "bait". Is Tehran attempting to start a region war, a war that would leave them in concrete dust? No, at least not yet or not deliberately. Remember at the top of this story when I addressed the issue of the Mullah's "demands", well, that is the key to every thing we see going on here. Who is the target of these demands? I've said it time and time again, but I will let you guess. Yep, the EU. the land of Teletubbies. Each time one of the actions sanctioned by Tehran doesn't produce the desired results, an EU begging the Mullahs to stop as the EU money flows back into the bank accounts, private bank accounts of the blackmailers, a new, more dramatic event takes place. In the scale of events, this attack from Iranian soil and a major oil complex in Saudi is the apex blackmail card. Here is the problem. So far, it hasn't worked. Can the EU afford to be seen as being soft on the Mullahs after such an open attack on Saudi? Not even a Teletubby would think such a move to be wise, well, maybe, give it a few days and we may be surprised. Yes folks, these events are bait and so far, no one is taking the bait. As bad as this one was, no bites, at least not yet. Well, that explains the whole bait concept, but how does that answer the question of, "did the US know or was intel that bad"? 

How could the US "Know":

 If someone in the Iranian military speaks, if someone has a conversation with the Mullahs, if the Mullahs say, "take it to the next level", who knows it? Is it possible the US intelligence network and "others" are that good? Could the US have known this even was taking place and decided to still not take the bait? What would happen if that bait had been swallowed? Where would we be today if we struck the Khuzestan site, before the cruise launches, you know, the Israeli model of doing business? Would the US Democratic Party be foaming at the mouth by now? Would CNN and MSNBC being screaming into the camera on how The Donald has started a conflict with Iran that might lead to regional war? By the Tuesday after the attack, would this whole thing have been Trump's fault? Why did the US not take the bait?  Hint. How many oil workers were killed in the attack? How fast did Saudi recover from the event? Why has Saudi's future King, a Hardliner to say the least, not responded? You know, why did Saudi not take the bait? Does all of this sound crazy? Can anyone prove me wrong? At the end of the day, most of everything you hear is opinion. Oh, by the way. Has Moscow come to the aid of Tehran on this issue? Did the Mullahs let Moscow in on what their next step was? I bet not! Has anyone hear out of China? 75 percent of ARAMCO fuel goes to Asia. It sucks to be in Hong Kong right now. Not too many people in the West are paying attention and that is music to the Dragon's ears.  Yep, opinions. That's what we have. Trump didn't take the bait, but is that the end of the story? No, no it's not. 

Time to pull the pole into the water:

When you go fishing, you never expect the fish to win, yet they often do. Tehran is fishing for a response, but so far, they not gotten the one they want. It seems the fish just aren't biting. That usually goes on for a long period of time and then all of a sudden, wack! The next thing you know, your pole is in the water and gone. It's time for that wack. It's time for the Mullahs to see a response they may have been warned about from Moscow or Beijing or even their own military commanders. If you have read my post or listen to my podcast, Col Dan's Opinion on iTunes, than you know my opinion on this response issue. Will the Mullahs go to war over their proxy militias in Iraq and Syria being turned into smoking holes in the ground? Better yet, would the military commanders allow the old men in Tehran to drag Iran into a regional war that would leave Iran a crushed nation unable to recover for decades?  Send the message. " Stop fishing this hole before it's too late". Strike the Shia Militias and strike them hard. Keep striking them and then, with a flash, be gone. No boots on the ground. No Nation State Building. No follow on contracts for BILLIONS of dollars for international companies to chase. Follow the Israeli model only do so on a grand scale. As the US is conducting this operation, get Putin on the phone and tell him. " We are not going to strike inside of Iran unless they strike back at our assets. If that happens all bets are off. You have the opportunity to change the course of your hostile proxy. You have the option of conducting a change in leadership. We don't care if you keep your influence over Tehran, but the path they are on is only going to lead to regional destruction and then you can explain to Beijing how your proxy ended up costing China it's flow of fuel. Have a good day"! 

Yep, that would be me if I was in the White House:). Look. If this round of attempting to bait the West / US / EU / doesn't work, than one thing is for certain. There will be another round. If each round is an escalation of the last, then what is next? At what point does the preplanned criticism of Trump go from, " He got us in another conflict in the Middle East", to, " Trump has no foreign policy and is in way over his head"! Oh wait.....they are already saying that! It's time to go from talking tough and carrying no stick to playing Wack a Mole with the Mullahs proxies and then looking their Puppet Master in they eyes and saying, "that's enough". 

By the way. I have had this conversation with one of the few people who truly doesn't let party politics get  folded into his opinions and let me tell you, that's refreshing. If you don't follow Daniel Horowitz at The Conservative Conscience, you should. Neither he nor I stick to any "party line" Call it like you see it. That's Dan. @RMConservative

Thanks Dan for giving me a much bigger platform to give my "Opinions".