THE SEEMINGLY NEVER-ENDING GAME OF ROCKETS.

What took place between last Friday and late last night in Israel and Gaza? The answer……the same thing that has been taking place time and time again. I could go down crazy rabbit holes on topics like OODA loops and try and impress everyone like some of those out there looking to score the next book deal, but I won’t. Let me put this to you in good old fashion Joe Six Pack terms. Israel continues to get it’s A.. handed to it on the battlefield of world perception. How many times have I addressed this issue of Hamas and other proxy groups in Gaza driving Israel’s government crazy? Too many.  So, let’s get down to it!

Why is this Happening:

            Again, for the sake of simplicity, let me give you a few options to review and then I will tell you what one I support.

1.     The relationship Trap. Israel is nearly paralyzed by The Donald’s Son in Law’s, Boy Wonder, pending Middle East Peace Plan. The relationship between The Donald and Netanyahu is the strongest Israel has ever had with the US. So, here is the problem. To take the actions that are truly required to neutralize the attacks from Gaza, Israel would have to take actions that would kill any hope of even bringing Boy Wonder’s plan to the table.  By the way. I don’t care what that plan calls for, it will be rejected outright before anyone from the Palestinian side even takes the time to read or hear it. Why? Because the decision process doesn’t take place inside the Palestinian movement. It takes place in Tehran. In short, Netanyahu is holding back in order to avoid an opportunity for the US plan to be dead on arrival. Remember……it already is!

2.     Casualty Aversion! Israel, like the US, has become completely casualty adverse. Moving into Gaza, all of Gaza, would be costly not only for the people of Gaza, but for the people of Israel and the IDF. The power of social media and 24/7 cable news is a tool the enemy has learned to leverage far better than any nation in the West. In today’s “modern conflicts”, the report of 100 dead at one time holds the same social shock power as 15,000 dead in one event such as WWII. The government of Israel and the US have absolutely no confidence their citizens would support any operation with such results and if that operation was required to continue for weeks or months, both governments are convinced they would fall. Who knows this? The enemies of both nations……………….that’s who. Within hours of this latest round of rocket diplomacy starting, BBC’s lead photograph was of a young Child in Gaza sitting on a pile of rubble.

3.     Orders from the Top. Who gives the orders to Hamas, Hezbollah and most of the other groups to start an operation? If you don’t believe it’s the Mullahs in Tehran, then you need to stop reading my post and go spend your time somewhere else.  Last week, the 2^nd stage of the oil sanctions took hold and the Mullahs didn’t like it. They have had to move leaders inside the IRGC and even talked of placing them under the Iranian Army. Why? Because things are not going well and last weeks additional sanction actions just made a bad situation worse. Now the rumor is Iran is contemplating an “event” against US interest in the region and thus, a Task Force is moved into place. Well, that may be true, but I will tell you what is a fact. The actions taken by Hamas and others inside of Gaza were not based on the decisions of local leaders. Sisi and the Egyptian intelligence heads, think about that for a minute…. Intelligence heads working on a ceasefire….not the Egyptian version of their Department of State, walked away from the ceasefire process last week. The story goes, they couldn’t get Hamas and the Islamic Jihad reps to agree to terms. Why? Because they don’t make those decisions and Tehran wants no “ terms”. Egypt and Israel talk….everyday….around the clock and it should be no surprise Israel issued such a stern warning last week over any pending actions during their remembrance events. Short answer, everyone knew it was coming. So, did Netanyahu know this next round of rocket diplomacy was coming? Yes. How could he not know? Tehran was looking for a response to the 2^nd phase of the oil sanctions and the Hamas rocket game was something like, 10-0. Ugly and a guaranteed embarrassment for Israel, the orders went out and the rockets started. By the way, the orders to stop didn’t come from some “agreement” reached by the UN, Egypt and Qatar.

Okay, I know you have caught on by now as to my pick. Yep…. it’s all three. For Netanyahu and The Donald, this is the Perfect Storm and they are both caught in its high seas. Here is the kicker and the most dangerous reality. They both know who is making these events take place and they both know what is at risk…. A US attempt, yet another one, of finding a peace process for the region.

 Unintended Consequences:

            As brilliant as this plan may seem to the old men in Tehran, it has an obvious risk they seem to be underestimating. Israel cannot afford to retake Gaza, at least not at the current casualty rate the people of Israel are suffering. Team Trump, to include Boy Wonder, cannot afford a major campaign by Israel prior to the release of the Peace Plan. So, then what? What does that mean to the Mullahs? Can this go on forever? How does the firebase that Gaza has become for Tehran insure the future of Iran? It doesn’t!

            Tehran’s plan has been to prevent the risk of a US backed peace agreement in the region and to cultivate this plan, they have utilized the firebase built on Israel’s border. Folks, I am here to tell you, that plan is built on shattered glass.  Netanyahu is sick and tired of watching Hamas and Islamic Jihad taking yet another victory lap at the expense of his legacy and the safety of Israel. Yes, he has been wiling to holdback what needs to take place in order for The Donald’s pledged plan to be formally place on the table, but the price he is paying is growing by the hour. The morale of the IDF Commanders and Line Units is taking a heavy hit. Simply put, this cannot continue for much longer. But, and this is a huge but…….. it’s becoming clear Team Trump’s “plan” is being pushed further into the Summer and for reasons Netanyahu simply cannot accept. Yep….it’s campaign time again in the US and the risk of Team Trump’s plan being dead on arrival is being evaluated heavily by the campaign heads. Two things happen in a typical US Presidential race when there is an issue that might impact the outcome. 1. The issue is pushed off the table until after the election. 2. It is allowed to play out early so the perception process has time to move on to the next issue. What option does anyone believe Netanyahu is pushing for? Can he afford to let Tehran play the rocket game for the foreseeable future? He was just reelected, so he is politically safe, but what about the people of Southern Israel? What about the tens of thousands who are not adapting to living out of their bomb shelters more than their own homes? What of the impact on the IDF? How many more times can they be pushed to the border of Gaza only to be told to turn around?

            When the phone rang this weekend and The Donald was told His buddy was on the line, what did he tell him? Be patient? Hold on? I need you to not overreact. 700 rockets and even rumors of wire guided weapons fired into Israel. What would the Donald do it that was taking place along the Mexican Border? You can bet that is exactly the stance Netanyahu took. “Put the plan on the table now. You know they are going to spit on it. Let’s get this out of the way so I can do what needs to be done.”

There is one other option and it’s an option right up the alley of how Trump thinks. Hit the people calling the shots. Hit the leadership of those calling for the rocket attacks. You don’t need to attack the Iranian military in its totality. The ability of the IDF to inflict damage on the Mullah’s number one shield, the IRGC, has been proven time and time again in Syria. Perhaps now is the time to take that concept to a whole new level? As the Abraham Lincoln and other assets are moved into position, it’s clear the unit members of the IRGC should be taking their prayers during Ramadan a lot more seriously.