THE INCIDENT AT THE STRAIT’S OF KERCH. NOT WHAT, BUT WHY?

            As much as I really wanted to follow up on the US’s Southern border issues, I just couldn’t pull myself away from the stunt pulled by the Tsar a few days ago.Everyone has read or heard by now all about what happened, but has anyone followed up with why? The same old worn-out statements by Western media centers around the enduring tensions between Russia and Ukraine and that’s a great way to wrap up a story as they scurry back to find the next thing to attack The Donald over. Here is the problem with this pathetic level of journalism, it does matter. What took place is important. It was important enough to pull me off the topic I wanted to address. The fact tensions remain between Russia and Ukraine is not noteworthy. What needs to be addressed is once again the questions of why, and why now?  

The Story Line:         

            As anyone should have been able to predict, both sides jumped to the podium and announced the other was responsible. The Russians admitted, quickly I might add, the Sea of Azov was open to both Ukrainian and Russian traffic. At no point has Moscow claimed the area as their own. The Russian version of the event includes Ukrainian threats to the newly opened bridge spanning the area as well as a history of declaring “temporary” closures of the waters for “events”. Sounds innocent enough, so much so it seems big players in the EU have already bought off on the whole event being a misunderstanding at some level. Yep, the land of Teletubby Leaders. As for Mr. Putin, it’s all about Mr. Poroshenko being behind in the polls.

            The Ukrainian stances centers around the whole event being a blatant provocation by Moscow.  The jump to Martial Law for the outlying areas of Ukraine startled just about everyone, even Moscow, but if anyone knows where the Russian’s “Little Green Men” are, it’s Kiev. Did Mr. Poroshenko and his Generals believe that was a prelude to some larger event? It’s very possible. Could he have ordered the three ships to run the blockade at the bridge? That’s possible as well, but would that make sense?

Side Note:

            If you watch the video of the ramming of the Ukrainian tug, you should be amazed by the language of the Russian Captain conducting the ramming. When I watched that clip for the first time, I thought to myself, “Wow….is this guy drunk”? Show me one clip of a US or British Skipper conducting himself in such a manner? Talk about unprofessional. That clip alone does a great deal of damage to the reputation of the Russian Navy and military. Better yet? How did the Ukrainians get it? Posted on social media by whom? A Russian Saylor? I bet that poor guy is on his way to the Salt Mines by now.

Who Stands to Gain from the Event?

            Both sides have their version. Both sides blame the other. At what point does that issue become irrelevant? When you have military leadership in the area that act like drunken idiots, how close can we be to a real crisis? Two of the Ukrainian ships were capable of defending themselves, but they did not. That is a sign of just how critical their Captains knew the situation had become. To allow two war ships to be detained, that’s a serious sign of control as well. Everyone knows, or should know, those two ships and their communications gear will be taken apart by the Russians. That’s a real prize for Moscow and you can bet that is where a great deal of the anger in the US is coming from. Did Mr. Poroshenko realize his ships would be seized?  I doubt it. Would it be difficult for Moscow to create a situation where Mr. Poroshenko might overreact? Easy. Are the Russian’s looking for a war with Ukraine? No. Putin’s statement about the whole event blowing over is a sign it’s up to the Ukraine to not let things get out of hand. To Mr. Poroshenko, it was and is a huge embarrassment and one he can’t let get out of control.

            The Russians push Poroshenko’s buttons, just as they planned to do. Are they prepared for his unpredictable reactions? What they are prepared for is for the US and the EU to keep Ukraine from doing something stupid. Having said that, here is what worries me. Of the military leadership involved in this incident, the most unprofessional ones were the Russians. If a Russian warship was rammed in this manner, how would that foulmouthed fool react? Modern day weapons on these ships don’t miss. Once one flies, the shooting is on. If there is a lesson to be learned here, that is the one we all better pay attention to. Historians are the ones who figure out who fired the first shot. The rest of us live in the aftermath. Dear Mr. Putin. Get a Captain with a cooler head than this guy.

If the audio was a plant, then you better convince the world of that and do so soon. This guy made you look like a bunch of drunk Pirates and you can bet his crew ether loves him or thinks he’s an idiot.