IS IRAN REACHING CRITICAL MASS AND IF SO…..THEN WHAT?

            Protest in the streets of Iran’s cities again. Is that new news? No. Is this round something different? Could be. Has anyone thought through the ramifications of a real Civil War, Revolution, Uprising, take your pick on terminology here. What happens if Iran goes the way of Syria? Can Iran go the way of Syria? What would that mean to the region? Now, don’t get me wrong, I am with the, “Toss the Mullahs out” crowd all the way, but…..and this is a big but…… what is the desired outcome? What happens if the desired goal is reached? More importantly, is how it is reached acceptable to everyone that prays it will happen? Is there a unified “plan” for the fall of the current government in Tehran? If there is a plan, and I’m betting from the Western perspective there is not such a plan, does that plan fit in with what Moscow and Saudi and Turkey and Israel and Jordan and Egypt…..okay….you get the idea. If the US is not attempting “Regime Change”😊, then how would a plan have been developed? Who would have been in on the planning team? Yes. I believe Iran’s current government is in real trouble and yes, I believe the collapse of the current government in Iran could create a crisis. How many factions have a “great idea” on how to run the new government of Iran? So, while everyone is cheering on the protest, let’s take a look at what might happen.

THE IRGC:

            I talked about this yesterday, but today’s topic has a different twist. If the Mullahs are going to fall from power in Iran, it will have to be because the IRGC no longer supports them. What are the Mullahs without the IRGC? Does Rouhani have the support of the people who are out to change the government? No. Does he have the support of the IRGC? Not yet; although Soleimani did talk about kissing his hand! So, is Rouhani the answer? No. the key to Iran’s future is the IRGC. Do they support the Mullahs to the bitter end, or do they find a way for the Iranian nation to avoid Civil War and yet maintain their hold of the real power?  What part of the IRGC will the people who are protesting accept? Now, that is the real concern. It’s hard to come to terms with the very organization that was shooting at you from the rooftops. Will any part of the IRGC leadership have the ability to talk to the people of Iran? The IRGC is the foundation of the Iranian government, but that foundation is committing terrible acts against it’s own people, mostly by using it’s proxy force, the Basij. If the IRGC cannot find a way to control their future, then why would they not fight to the end? There you Have it, the core requirement of a real Civil War.

Outsiders:

            How many groups, both nation states and NGOs, do you think have an idea on what Iran should look like after the fall of the Mullahs? How many of these ideas do you think take into consideration what all the others, “think”? Do you think the future of Iran looks the same from Moscow as it does from DC or Ankara or Riyadh…. and the list goes on. Iran’s oil and gas resources mean more to any of these capitals than the political outcome of Iran. How much money is there to be made by rebuilding the military or infrastructure of Iran if God forbid, there is a Syrian level Civil War? Conflicts are always, in the end, about money and power. Those who desire freedom are brushed aside by those who seek power and fortune. Just look at the history of Iran for the past 70 yrs. and tell me I’m not correct. Everyone has an opinion on what the “New Iran” should look like, what it should do and not do, whose friend they should be and not be. The problem is, the people on the streets in Iran will most likely not get a real vote in any of those decisions. What they will desire is an end to the violence, the ability to buy food and essentials for their families and in the end, to stay alive. After nearly eight years of Civil War in Syria, go ask the people of Syria what they would like the most right now. The more it appears the stabilization of Iran is in question, the more likely multiple countries and organizations are plotting how to make this event advantageous, how to take advantage of an Iran in crisis. There is blood in the water and the sharks are beginning to circle.

What could happen:

            The Intelligence Community / IC/ and an army of contractors are working on the possible course of actions/ COAs/  that could take place in Iran. Talking Papers and PowerPoint Slides are flying all over the world, but with the clear majority of this taking place in DC. As I’ve said before, I would bet the Pizza Boxes are stacking up all over the place. Taking out the Army Speak, let me give you a down and dirty review of what they are coming up with.

            COA 1: The government of Iran escapes into exile, leaving Rouhani trying to hold the nation together. IRGC leadership also leaves to parts unknown, most likely Russia. Russia and the US announce a multinational group, coordinated by the UN to support Rouhani as he attempts to stabilize the government. I.E. The Russian’s influence over Iran remains. Now, as crazy as some of these COAs may seem, the real crazy thing is, how many annexes are developed based on these COAs. I’m not kidding you when I tell you thousands of people work on these things, no matter how crazy they sound.

            COA2: The IRGC removes the Mullahs and declares their support for the Iranian President. The Russians, see a pattern here😊, announce they have been asked by Iran’s new government to provide “support” to bring peace back to the nation. Russian announces that all Sanctions against Iran should be lifted immediately. The US states their full support for the new government in Tehran as long as the conditions of noninterference in the region become the new goal of the new government.  In the end, this COA was preapproved in both Moscow and DC with DC and Moscow informing the “others”, “this is how it’s going to be”. Do the people of Iran accept this COA? Well, that is why there are dozens of annexes developed by thousands of planners.

            COA3: We will stop at three, because most Four Star Generals don’t want to sit and listen to more than 3 COAs.  The IRGC decides to take the same approach as in 2009 and crush the “Resistance”. Iran states the Protestors are supported by agents of the US and Israel and it’s an attempt to conduct a regime change. The IRGC anticipates the Protestors will gain no outside support and additional sanction actions will have limited impact on the Iranian government. The world sees the  violent actions live on social media and the US demands a total oil embargo on Iran’s exports. The UNSC take a vote on the embargo with the Russians vetoing the vote as China abstains. The US declares a “Coalitions Naval Force” that will deny Iranian shipments through the Strat of Hormuz. Russian unofficially warns Iran they will not support them in a conflict with the US and its Allies. As the first Iranian oil tankers attempt to pass through the strait, the IRGC Navy is fired upon and then…..it’s on like Donkey Cong!!!! A brief, regional war takes place with the end result being the decimation of the Iranian military and collateral damage throughout the region. Now, talk about levels of COA annexes! Here is what worries me the most. The COA most US four Stars will order further development of is COA3. Why, because that is what they are tasked to do. Be ready to fight and win.

Summary:

            Now, these COAs are just a few examples of what is taking place and obviously many other possible scenarios exist, but when you get right down to it, one of three things is going to happen. Iran will put down the protest at some point and survive on Chinese and Russian and Turkish sales with a new standard of economic reality. The protest will create wide disruption and the IRGC will have to joint or not join, based on the number of defections. Or, the country will slide into a Civil War much like Syria.

            When the Arab Spring first got underway, the old men in Tehran were convinced it was a Western plot to bring down the Iranian government. Ironic given many of the Monarchies in the Middle East thought the same thing. The fear of their own people never went away. The memories of 2009 are still there. Iran is in real…..real….trouble and that “trouble” may not be confined to just Iran. Donkey Cong! I liked that one!