GAZA. ROUND AND AROUND WE GO, BUT MAYBE NOT THIS TIME.

            All indications show the IDF is about to make a significant move into the Gaza Strip. Has this taken place before? Yes. Did it solve the issue at hand? They were not designed to do so. Why? Because the political price to pay for a full-on occupation was too high for Israel and the concept of providing for a large mass of people who hate you would have been and would be a disaster. Any Post Operational mission in Gaza would not go well. Simply put, the price for neutralizing the threats from Gaza was greater than the benefits of doing so. How could tolerating the constant attacks from Gaza achieve anything? It has never been about achieving something in Gaza. It’s been about keeping your enemies concentrated in a single area and limiting just what level of weaponry they can obtain. Containment. Gaza has always been about “Containment”. So, what has changed? Why the statement about an impending ground operation into Gaza that would be “significant”?

What has changed?

            The US.  The support from the US since the last Gaza incident. That is a huge “change”. The US is 100 % behind, at least Team Trump is, Israel and everyone in the region and in Moscow knows it. If the IDF  moves on the ground into Gaza, even all of Gaza, the US will back that action all the way. Yes there will be calls for consideration on all sides for the civilians, but those are always just disclaimers every nation puts out there. It’s a “feel good” statement. So what has changed? The US. That’s what’s changed!

            Weapons. The weapons for Hamas and “others” in Gaza have changed. Who would have ever thought that thousands of acres of farmland in Israel could be damaged, crops destroyed, by kites and balloons? How could Israel possibly use its mighty military to attack kids flying kites? That’s the picture that became the center of the plan for Israel’s adversary. To a large extent, the perception concept worked. Coverage of such events has been and continues to be overwhelmingly against Israel. In short, the enemies of Israel have been successfully inflicting damage with the most simplistic weapons one could think of. That is a huge “change”.

            Russia.  The last time Israel executed a real operation into Gaza, the Russian activity in the region was mostly behind the scenes. Now, the Russians are physically parked on the border of Israel at the Golan Heights. Not only are the Russians there, the Iranians and their proxy fighters, Hezbollah as well. Talk about “change”! Yes, Russia states they are there to keep the peace between Israel and Syria and of course, they were invited by Assad. Russia has stated no Iranian forces or Hezbollah units will be within apx  50 miles of the Israeli border with Syria, but there is not a reasonable person in the world that believes that statement. Is Russia out to pressure Israel? Is Russia attempting to influence Israel’s actions? No. That’s not the Tsar style😊 ( Insert humor here). Israel must now negotiate with Moscow more than at anytime in it’s past. Is that a “change”?

            Hamas.  Is Hamas the same organization it was the last time the IDF went after them on the ground? No. Their internal struggle for power inside the Palestinian movement is worse than ever.  The games they have been playing with Fatah and Mr. Abbas has left Gaza worse off than it has ever been. Money sent to help Gaza’s people disappears and all sides point their fingers at each other. Hamas still looks to Egypt for some level of moral support, but Egypt sees Hamas only from the perspective of leverage. What can Egypt do with them that benefits Egypt? Does the Egyptian government care about Gaza? No, unless you are talking about the tunnels and the income those who run them make. So, in the end, Hamas continues to be in a power struggle for control of the Palestinian “movement” and that struggle has them looking for anyone that is willing to help them. The problem comes, when those agreeing to help ask for something in return.

            Iran.  What has “changed” for Iran? Well, just about everything! To say things have gone from bad to worse is a huge understatement. When Hamas calls Tehran and says, “We’ve got issues here in Gaza”, the old men in Tehran just laugh and say, “you don’t know what bad is”. Yesterday, my discussion with some of the people supporting the protest in Iran was all about the possible events in Gaza. The old men in Tehran need a huge distraction right about now and a large scale, IDF push into Gaza would be just the ticket. Well, the next thing you know, the so called  Hamas / Israeli Cease Fire process, being facilitated by Egypt, falls apart and the rockets rain down on Israel right on cue! Did this latest round of attacks by Hamas come at the request of Tehran? You will have a hard time convincing anyone in Israel it didn’t. Will it work? Will another Gaza operation save the Iranian government? No, but the old men in Tehran are so desperate, they are willing to try anything.  

            So, there you have it. The changes that could spell another round of operations in Gaza are on the table. But wait! The point was not, will it happen. The question was, will it be different? Well, everything mentioned above will impact the level of action, but what truly is the deciding factor in just how hard Israel moves against Gaza? Ramifications. Now, there is an important word.

            Ramifications.   Does Israel take on the burden of destroying Hamas and “others” inside of Gaza and in doing so, take on the responsibility for providing support to those who are impacted? The answer has historically been, “it’s not worth it”, but “change” is the word of the day and that word applies this time around as well. Every time Israel takes on Hamas in Gaza, the event goes something like this. Hamas escalates quickly and then indicates they are talking of a cease fire as the IDF is executing some limited response by air or artillery. By the time a decision has been made to conduct a ground operation, the perception is, Israel is overreacting. Yep, the decision process in Israel is too long and Hamas plays this like a fiddle. Simply put, Hamas strikes, and then waits for Israel to either under react or overreact. Either way, it’s Israel that loses the perception war. This same storyline has held true with Hezbollah. Israel must always wait until the pros and cons are argued inside their cabinet. This is where they lose the real battle, the perception / world opinion battle.

            A few months ago, the Prime Minister and the Defense Secretary were given the power to declare war. This had to have been an attempt by Israel to address this decision-making quagmire, but that decision was quickly overturned and once again, Israel drags its response through the political process as Hamas or Hezbollah or “others” shape the event. Just yesterday, my comment on the initial attacks from Gaza were based on how puzzled I was over the seemingly slow and limited response. Yes, the airstrikes were immediate, but the rockets rained down on Israel for hours afterword.

            What does this all mean? Why could this response be different? I will tell you why. Because it has to be. Israel is facing a Hezbollah force that is better equipped than at anytime in their past. Israel is facing an embolden and desperate Iran. Israel is facing a new level of influence from the Russians. To put it simply. Israel is feeling more external pressure than ever before and the support from the US is only based on Team Trump. That support could leave as quickly as it came. Now is the time for Israel to put meaning behind it’s words. When the statement is made, “Israel will do whatever it takes to protect the people of Israel”, then an action that is unprecedented made be required. Gaza is and will continue to be a danger to Israel. The leadership of Gaza is the danger, not it’s people. Many discussions have been held on the topic of Regime Change. As the Israeli Cabinet meets today, the decision to move into Gaza or not to move into Gaza will be made, if it has not already been made. My advice is this. A limited event is more damaging than a full-scale operation. Doing nothing other than air strikes is a complete victory for Hamas. Yes, this latest episode may be at the demands of Tehran and yes, Tehran would love nothing more than to see all of Gaza under attack, but a much larger message may need to be sent. Gaza will not be the first territory that is used to send a true warning. Civilians are the casualty of conflict and that cannot be avoided. Gaza may be about to pay a terrible price for the dreams of fools, but Israel has a limited window to deal with this issue of threats from Gaza and that window could be closing as I write this. Ramifications are the factors that Israel is weighing right now, but the times comes when ramifications must be accepted. Risk is always an unknown, but risk is the option that must be taken. Gaza cannot be the wound that never heals. The poople of Gaza deserve to be free, but that may only come after a great deal more pain.