IRAN’S THREATS AND ACTIONS. JUST HOW DESPERATE ARE THEY BECOMING?

            As of the moment I write this, it seems the rumors of pending actions against Iran are not only continuing, but they’re increasing. Yes, political leaders and staffs use inflammatory  statements, sometimes for their own people and sometimes for their adversaries. It’s for that reason, many folks who watch the Middle East don’t overreact when such statements are made. But, as I said two days ago, that all changed with the events of General Soleimani’s words and the attacks on oil shipments. Now a new rumor is growing, but this time, it’s more than your typical rumor. The US is going to execute a plan to keep Middle East waterways safe? Well, two things. First off, the ability to do so depends on what the desired outcome is. Secondly, the translation of this statement is simple. The US is considering actions to neutralize Iran’s capabilities to impact the shipping in the region. So, the rumors of the US’s pending attack on Iran’s nuclear program may have been met with quick denial, and that is always worrisome, but the concept of the US and it’s Allies not tolerating what took place a few days ago, well, that is not a rumor. That is reality. But in all the talk of this pending conflict, a stranger message comes out of Tehran.

Iran’s Parliament Speaks:

            Ali Larijani makes a statement about possible “ negotiating” with the US. Wait…..what? a guy who is close to Khameini hints of possible negotiations with the Great Satan? By they way. It’s really hard to “negotiate” with a nation whose leaders refer to you as, “The Great Satan”, unless you are just looking to fill your own nations’ history books with your so called “accomplishments”, but let’s move on. Why would Larijani, a hardliner, make this statement now? With the war drums beating louder by the day, what is with a Hardliner giving hints? Even if he was genuine and received permission to make such a statement, who in the US would believe him? Well, maybe France or the rest of the EU, but that doesn’t matter. In the US  I.C. world, this is yet another event coming from Iranian leadership that is worthy of more pizza consumption. Here is the item those pizza folks will crawl all over. Is there a growing split inside Iran’s government? Is the economic and regional pressure becoming too much for a worn-out leadership team in Tehran? Does Larijani’s statement indicate, blood in the water? Here’s the read catch. To the planners inside of Central Command, it doesn’t matter. What matters to them is if they get the order to neutralize the threats to shipping in the region. Plans are always ready. Detailed plans that simply require last minute reviews, especially with your Allies. Larijani may have been told to make that statement, but then again, he may not have and the beauty of the IC word is being able to change the message someone gives. Even if he didn’t mean to show division in Tehran, smart people can take his words and create a new perception. A perception that he did so out of desperation and that means a decaying loyalty. Yes. The art of information warfare is a 21^st century is a skill that is growing by the hour.

If the order is given:

            Tell Central Command to neutralize the threats to shipping in the region and they will do exactly that. I worked there for a short period of time and playing games is not an option. No one understands this better than Iran’s military leadership, or they better! The Iranian Navy knows what their fate will be if they go into a true conflict with the US. Sending proxy fighters from other shorelines and then denying you had anything to do with their actions will not save the Iranian Navy. It may play well in Tehran, but the Iranian Navy doesn’t live in Tehran.

            Options are a common tool of the US military. The US Secretary of Defense most likely asked the CENTCOM Commander for “options”. Those options will be shown to the President and then a decision is made on what “option” to take. Now. Remember. We are talking about The Donald here! The US can send a clear warning to Iran and in that case, I would not want to be on the Saviz. That’s the kind of warning The Donald may wish to send. If that ship is the reason the proxy fighters are able to achieve shots on oil tankers, then that ship may become a new fish nursery. Let’s be very….very…..clear on this point. If the US leadership ops to remove the threat to shipping, then the potential consequences of that act have been briefed to a level of detail most of you would not understand. Yes, the US can decide to send a message to Iran, but as is the universal rule of warfare states, “the other side get’s a vote”!

Iran’s Options:

            Here is the most simplistic way to frame the question. Iran has no “good” options. The Russians will not defend them. The secret handshake with North Korea looks to be a thing of the past. China will simply sit back and watch what unfolds. The old men in Tehran cannot give in to US demands, although some of them make be quietly thinking about doing just that. Iran can continue to supply the proxy fighters in Yemen and perhaps even let them take another shot at an oil tanker, but we all know where that might lead. Iran can continue with wild threats and yet do nothing to implement any of them and that is a very safe course of action right now. Sound ominous but do nothing to invoke the wrath of The Donald; that might be their best bet. Even that option has huge pitfalls. Just today, the story broke about Iran’s currency hitting a new low. 100k rials to one…..one US dollar! What made the people of Iran walk into the streets? The economy. What does this story of the continued collapse of Iran’s currency mean to the old men in Tehran. Yep, nothing but more bad options.

            The Iranian story has been going from bad to worse for months.  Supporting an attack on oil movements in the region was a desperate and dangerous act and everyone sees it just that way. Some say it was a warning of just how desperate Iran is becoming and as such, everyone needs to think carefully about how to respond. Here is the problem. Does The Donald think carefully? Has the CENTCOM Commander provided his assessment of what could happen if the order is given to make the shipping lanes safe. Better yet. Did the US President understand the possible repercussions? Did he listen to his Secretary of Defense? What risk is The Donald willing to accept? What option does the US President believe the Iranians will take?

            As the midnight oil keeps burning in Tehran, another briefing is waiting in the hallway. It’s the latest update on Israel’s options. That briefing has a Russian annex and that annex has the same message from Moscow.  “ You are on your own, but don’t fear. We will come in and clean up what is left of you after it’s over. All we will require is control of your fuel industry”. If you think that is not the real message from Russia, than you don’t understand the real position Iran finds themselves in. Nobody wants a war in the region, especially a war between Iran and the US and Allies. Well, perhaps the word, “nobody” is a bit strong. A future King in Saudi may set his sites on the Saviz, or any other Iranian ship in the Red Sea. Why take the first shot? Why not let someone else get it started and then tell the world you have no choice than to end the event as soon as possible.

            I know this guy, we will call him “Dan” and he’s finishing a book about a Third World War. It seems this book gets started with a maritime incident between Iran and Saudi. Boy, I have no idea where that theory came from, but I know he’s about to finish the book😊