PUTIN AND ARAMCO? A “TECTONIC SHIFT” AND BETRAYAL  IN THE WORKS. 

               I fully intended on addressing the critical meeting that is taking place between the US and Turkey today. As important as that meeting may be, shy of actual open conflict breaking out between the US and Turkey, I came upon a topic that is far more important.

http://www.atimes.com/article/putin-prefers-aramco-trumps-sword-dance/

If Mr. Bhadrakumar is correct, and believe me, this is a topic the US intelligence world keeps a very close eye on, and a “deal” is about to be made between the Russians, partnered with the Chinese, and Saudi Arabia / Aramco, then the he is correct. Tectonic. That is exactly what this “deal” will be. For the Russian / Chinese partnership to actually buy their way into the largest oil and gas firm in the world, for the Russians to pull this alliance away from the US / West, yes…….. that is Tectonic! Mr. Bhadrakumar covers the potential ramifications of this potential partnership, so I will not spend time addressing the business side of this issue.  Although the issue of future military hardware operations is covered in this piece, the dangers to Saudi on that topic will be important to the kingdom. I’ll come back to that point, but first, let me address the area not covered in this article. It’s the question that typically leads any intelligence briefing on a topic this important.

Why?

               Why would the Russians love to have such a deal? Does it allow them to have a nose under the Aramco tent? Yes. Just think of the access to data, life span of reserves as just one example. How about access to manipulation of processes inside the corporation such as the physical movement of oil and gas. These are just minor examples. The actual “why” is far more strategic. What is the lifeblood of the Russian economy? Fuel, oil, gas! What is the commodity the Chinese are in an every increasing quest for? Fuel. The primary controller of world fuel. If that is not a goal of the Tsar, then I’ve missed my mark on him for years now. So, the “why” seems to be very clear. It’s about power. It’s about control and influence. With the “why” out of the way, let’s move onto the next question. Will it happen? Will the Russians and the Chinese actually get their hand on a percentage of a 2 TRILLION Dollar business?

The Catch:

               Is there a “catch”? You bet there is; there always is! Let’s see. The Russians are the largest backers of the Iranians. The Iranians are currently, I stress currently, a mortal enemy of the Saudi Kingdom. So, the Russians show up with Chinese money and state they would like to buy part of the largest corporation in the world. I wonder what the conditions of even considering such an offer might be? Does anyone really think that Saudi Arabia, the future King, would trade 100 Billion dollars’ worth of their prize corporation to a nation that supports Saudi’s enemy?  Don’t you have to wonder how the Tsar pitched that concept? The story goes, a phone call took place between Putin and the King, the young one I bet. How in the world did Putin put this bid in perspective that even gives them a chance to succeed? If you said, he placed the Iranian card on the table, then you get credit for knowing the leader of Russia better than most. Yes. Absolutely! I would bet that is exactly what the Tsar did, only I have a twist that you need to contemplate.

Regime Change:

               Would the Russians walk away from all of it’s investments in Iran for the sake of a small percentage of Aramco? No. Would the Russians arrange or let’s say facilitate a change in Iran that would be more acceptable to Saudi? Oh yes……..BINGO! Amongst the “friends” of Russia, who serves at the pleasure of the Tsar? All. All serve at the pleasure of the Tsar and that includes the dying old man in Tehran. Who is the IRGC really beholding to? Who gives them what they need? Who makes sure they are the true power in Iran? Yep. What is behind the unrest in Iran? The West? Well, maybe to some extent. Who has the foresight to understand the skill craft of perpetuation tension amongst the population all the while as the Iranian government blames the West / US? Why, who might even be clever enough to quietly work a backdoor deal with the West / US to help facilitate unrest in Iran? Does that sound like something a ex KGB Boss could dream up? Let me simplify things. Putin knows the relationship with Iran is the real stumbling block to a deal like the Aramco event. He knows he can’t just walk away from Iran, although, if they keep interfering with Moscow’s plans in Syria, he may change his mind. What needs to be said to the Saudis? What words may compel the Kingdom to allow this Russian / China consortium to win the prize? “There is a change coming in Iran. A change we are facilitating and when this change takes place, the issues between the two of you will be solved”. Is that the kind of thing the Tsar could say to the future King? Yep! Are the Saudi’s clever enough to inquire how this “change” might take place and when? Absolutely. In the shadows of the Iranian old man, hide ambitious dreamers. Some who have already been in power and some who dream of power. More importantly, those who hold not only power, but the admiration of many of the Iranian citizens. The old man is dying, and everyone knows it. How will the next ruler of Iran change the course of not only Iran, but the region? You can bet this topic has had many glasses of prime Vodka consumed over it. Meanwhile, the Dragon smiles at it’s so called partner and spends a few dollars…………………….. and waits!