IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH AND CASE OF MONKEY SEE….MONKEY DO!

The Turks are now coming up on a month into their operation to neutralize any idea of an independent Kurdish state along the Turkish border and if you don’t believe that is what is taking place, then you should probably spend your time reading something else. I’m not going to spend time addressing how this operation is going, but I am going to ask one simple question. Did the Ottoman’s invasion of Syria provide the cover for Israel to move against Hezbollah forces in Syria? If it’s acceptable for, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US to carve out a slice of Syrian soil for the sake of neutralizing a potential enemy, then why not Israel? Yes, I fully understand the IDF has been attacking targets in Syria, but an actual ground operation has been out of the question. So, is it out of the question now? If Iran’s proxy military, Hezbollah, has been allowed to establish itself inside of Syria, close to the Israeli border, does Israel not hold the right to neutralize this threat? Someone tell me again why the Turks pushed into Syria? Here is an even more important question. Do the Israelis plan on executing just such an event?

Warnings to those that matter:

Netanyahu holds a meeting with Putin. As soon as that meeting is over, the Russians dispatch a high-level team to Israel…………. Quickly.  Rumor has it, and it’s a good rumor, the message given by Israel to Russia was blunt. “We will not accept Hezbollah or Iranian forces to threaten Israel from its border with Syria”! This message was also delivered to DC. Then Netanyahu made it clear to the rest of the world in an open statement. Again, someone remind what the excuse was for Turkey’s movement into Syria? Did anyone take these statements seriously? Let me answer that this way. When was the last time you witnessed a high-level team be dispatched within hours of a meeting between two leaders? Was the Russian reaction to Israel’s message noteworthy? You bet it was. Had there been a rumor of Russian striking a deal over the Syrian mess that would lead to Iranian and other forces leaving Syria? Yes. Was Tehran consulted on this process? You can bet they were not, unless the statement itself was disingenuous.

Iran sends its own message:

               Let me go backwards for a minute. We must remember the goals of the Persians in Syria and the region are not the goals of the Russians. The relationship between the Russians and the Iranians is based upon a matter of convenience. The Russians are convenient to the Persians, but only for so long. The Persians are convenient to the Russians, but only until the greater issue of Eastern Europe is settled. For the Russians, in the end, the Middle East will continue to be what it has been for almost 100 years, a source of fuel. But, this time the control of this area will come from Moscow, not DC. There use to be a war plan for fighting the Soviet Union in the Middle East for just this reason, but that is a discussion for another day.

               Iran gets a vote. That is the message when Hezbollah Commanders are seen with Iranian leadership along the Syrian border with Israel. Do the Russians approve or disapprove of such events? Does anyone in Tehran truly care what the Russians think? Yes, the courtship is as it has always been, on shaky ground. Iran has no intention of leaving Syria’s future to anyone else other than Iran. So, the question becomes, is Iran willing to risk the future of their own nation for the sake of influence in Syria? Just how did the Tehran interpret the communications between Israel and Russia? Did Netanyahu travel to see the Tsar to judge his true intentions in Syria? Is Russia telling the truth when they state all foreign parties will leave Syria?  Is Tehran paying attention? Was this statement by Russia just another complicated twist of the truth? Just in the past two days, stores have been circulating detailing the inspection of positions inside of Syria along the Israeli border; Inspections by high ranking Iranian officials and Hezbollah Commanders. The Middle East is a part of our world where bluffs and hidden meanings are the norm. Trust me when I say, Israel in not bluffing! Mobilization of the IDF is a very distinguishable event. Be watching closely for this noticeable sign, but don’t count on it. Surprise is the key to victory in 21^st Century warfare.