US STRIKE ON SYRIA. "DUCK AND COVER" ????? I HOPE NOT

You have to let the second event take place before you truly understand the first one. That is the theory many live by and in the case of the events of last week in Syria, that theory may be holding true. Rouhani states the US and Russia was an inch away from confrontation right after the US attack on Syria. Rouhani claims he received his information from a Russian military leader. Yesterday, a story was run by Reuters stating the “Joint Command Center” between the Russians, Iranians and Syrians had released a statement on how the US had crossed “redlines” and future actions by the US would be responded to. Within 24hrs, the Russians reacted by stating they were unaware of any such statement coming from the Joint Center. Who was Reuter’s source and yes, we all know they won’t tell us. So, here is my question. Does one statement give us a clue on the origin of the other?

Where are we now?

How many turning points in human history have begun with some singular event that in itself should would not have been worthy of creating such wide scale change? Was the US actions in Syria such an event? Perhaps. Speculation is an industry all in itself and at this particular moment in time, speculation is about as much as we have to work off of. Having said that, my speculation vote still rides with the Persians and their government’s desire to not allow the future of Syria or the region to be determined by Christians. As I said last week, if I’m wrong and this latest potentially history changing event was condoned and or coordinated by the Russians, then we truly have witnessed an event that may change human history.  The good news is, I still think my theory holds more weight than the concept of the Russians being responsible.

Two arguments that merit tracking.

Always keeping an open mind and never being as vain as to believing your own press that has been a trait I’ve tried to refine. So, two theories caught my eye this weekend. First was the concept this was the historically predictable “First Test” of the new US President. The event most Political Scientist will tell you comes within the first 100 days of a new US President. Funny, I’ve never heard any of US “experts” make the statement the US “test” new leaders!   If this is true, then who administered the test and who is going to score the results? As I stated earlier, it appears the “joint” message is not “joint” at all and that is why I still look to Persia for my clues. I will make this prediction, for as long as The Donald is in the White House, “testing” him will be a very dangerous assessing process. I would recommend any nation or group that believes in the testing process reevaluate how they will judge the status of The Donald. If there is one thing The Donald and the Tsar have in common, and there is more than one, it’s the fact that neither of them are good test takers and both are very capable of holding a grudge against those who hand them a test. The second theory I came across was one I actually mentioned in passing last week. Was there never really going to be a “Bromance”? Was the concept of a Putin / Trump Team something cooked up by some other group? Was it the brainchild of a very angry US Democratic party? If that is true, then where all this heads could land squarely on the shoulders of that elite group inside the Dems. If this concoction was not born in the US, then where? As stated last week, did the Tsar build this story? Was this an attempt to play The Donald for a sucker? Was the Tsar playing to Trump’s natural stance as if he was a patsy waiting to show the world how he could get along with the most aggressive, dangerous man in the world? I’ll keep saying it over and over again………….I hope not…..let’s all pray this is not true! The problem is, the “sucker” story is starting to appeal to some out there. It’s the most dangerous scenario we may have to deal with and for that reason, we simply cannot turn our backs on any additional data on the theory.

Miscalculation?

Both of the above mentioned scenarios are based upon one key assumption, the US was not involved in making this event take place. The US, as the story goes, reacted to an event that no civilized leader could turn his back on. Um…….. I’m sorry to say we have a long history in the West / US / of turning our backs on despicable events, both Republican and Democratic backs!  Was this the first chemical attack in Syria? No. Was this the first chemical attack using a weaponized agent? No. Has an event this outrageous happened in other parts of the region? Yes, just asked the Kurds! Was this the first event of this nature on the new US President’s watch? Yes! Could that be what happened? Did the Syrians and their Allies execute an attack not unlike others in the past six years and completely miscalculate the response of the West / US / ?  Was it a deliberate “test” or dumb miscalculation? Did the Trump Team interpret this event as his fist “test” and decide to show just how different things were going to be after eight years of talking? Never…………..every…………forget what I’ve said about the history of conflict and just how often unintended events lead to consequences and consequences lead to further actions………so goes the spiral of war! The US did not arm the Syrian aircraft with a chemical weapon. The US was not waiting in anticipation for an event to show just how different the new team is, at least I don’t think they did! But…..but….. Did the US miscalculate their new leader’s fist “Test”? Did the Trump Team think it was Test Day when in fact it was not? I’ve seen many of post on just how much tension there was in executing the missile option. Team Trump was rumored to have a strong division on the topic. Some may have been convinced of the “test” and some were not. Just how smooth of a machine is Team Trump?

Off-ramp!

It’s been a few days now! The US and the Russians have had time to think through what took place. They’ve had time to talk and trust me, they have talked. What happened? The Russians have their version and the US has theirs? Both must save face in the public’s eye, the social media’s arena. The questions becomes, are they both looking for a way out? What is the proverbial “off-ramp”? Exxon, I mean Tillerson is heading to Moscow and he is not taking a Press Team with him. That tells you a great deal. Yes, not the first time the Trump Team has changed how a President’s team interacts with the media, but this one is different. Who knows Russian leadership better? The ex CEO of Exxon or the so called “experts” in DC? Why was Tillerson given the job of Secretary of State for the US?  I can guarantee you one huge factor was his understanding and relationships inside of Russia. If the off-ramp path is the one both sides are desperately looking for, then this pending meeting will set the stage. By the way, pay no attention to the public statements coming out of both camps before this meeting. Remember, real conversations take place far away from the press. Team Trump doesn’t do policy by polls? The Guy hates polls as well he should and as for the Tsar and polls, what do you think?

If the US and Russia find a way to defuse this escalating environment, one thing will have to happen. They will both have to agree to some level as to what happened and why. Repairing the rift is priority one for both sides. Yes, Team Trump has proven he is not the Tsar’s Puppet. That argument for the US Democratic Party is gone and that is a storyline for another day.  But don’t be shocked to hear a few wacky Dems make the comment, if they already have not, “Trump attacked Syria just to make it look like he’s not in Putin’s pocket”! As a matter of fact, I would bet that comment has already been made. Check CSNBC website, they probably pushed it first. But, in the end, both sides have to have a story that gives them an exit. If the Russians need to, they will toss Iran and Assad on the fire, but they have to be given the opportunity to do it in a manner and time that they pick. Now, back to the doomsday scenario. If the Tsar really was in on this from day one. If the chemical attack was just part of a plan to show The Donald as a chump, then the meeting with Tillerson will tell the story. If there is no sign of a pending off-ramp story, then it may be time to rethink the old, “Duck and Cover” drills! Ouch!