THE DONBASS ISSUE. AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW
Well, as you get older the saying goes, you get wiser! That
didn’t hold true for me yesterday. As I was burning a few brain cells on the
latest events in Eastern Ukraine, I missed a scenario that I shouldn’t have. It
wasn’t until this morning, when I read this attached article, that I realized a
very real scenario. What if the Tsar truly is not behind the flare up in
Donbass region of the Ukraine? What if the event is the action of the
government in Kiev? How did I not think that one through at the level I should
have? I have only one answer. I’ve been so fixated on the concept of a Trump /
Putin bartering concept, that I let myself overlook the reality the seated government
in Kiev is not made up of a bunch of Knights in Shining Armor. Did Poroshenko
and his team plan this latest round of unrest? What is Kiev worried about?
WHAT’S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD FOR THE GANDER:
What would a new relationship between the Tsar and The
Donald mean for Kiev? In the close door discussions on the future of
commitments to Europe, where does the Ukraine fit in? Yes, it’s a major part of
the Tsar’s disunion with The Donald, but where is the new US President on the
topic? Does Kiev really know? Do they trust what they are hearing? True,
Western military leaders are in Kiev. True Western Diplomats are talking to
Poroshenko’s team, but what is the level of confidence? Words? Like I always
say, “Deeds before words”!
Is the Ukraine any different than many of the other
countries as they watch this new dance between the US and Russia? Can the Ukraine
simply hope their future turns out the way Western political and military
leaders are telling them? Would the US or the Russians settle for such words of
assurance?
PERCEPTIONS:
Once again, the ageless issue of perception comes into play
and this time, it’s not just the perception from Kiev, but the perception from
Moscow!
Yesterday I made the comment there was no way the Pro
Russian Rebels / Donbass Militias, take your pick, would instigate military conflict
in the region without a green light from Moscow. So ask yourself. Could the
Tsar possibly believe the pro-Western government of Kiev would do the same
without the knowledge of key Western powers? Interestingly enough, the answer
may be “yes”! If someone walked into the room and told Putin there was an unforeseen
event taking place in the Donbass region he might believe it was a sanction
event given the amount of Western / US / military advisers in Kiev. He might
think to himself, “Is Donald testing me? Is he showing me he too can press
issues to gain leverage in the ongoing bartering game”? Remember,
we are talking about a very methodical, yet, paranoid Tiger Hunter here! He may
come to the conclusion, as this article states that Kiev is simply trying to
place the Ukraine issue back on the front burner. Does that mean it had Western
support? That’s up to the Tsar to decide!
Perception. It’s the force that drives the world. It’s the
core value of two very powerful men. Two men who are in the early stages of
dancing a very complicated and dangerous tango! What an ugly mental pictureJ
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