NIETO, TRUMP AND MEXICO. WHO IS TO BLAME?

Okay, back to an area of the world that has always worried me and the events of the past few weeks have only strengthened my worries.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/01/pena-nieto-faces-unrest-in-mexico-as.html

After I read this story, I had to wonder just how soon the “Anti Trump” camp in the US would blame the inbound President for the events in Mexico. The good news for Trump, most of the Democrats could care less about Mexico and their actions in the past stand as proof. “Is there a vote to be had? If so, let me get a soundbite together quickly. If not, who cares”? That is the political way in just about every corner of the free world.

So, the price of gas in Mexico created this latest flare-up of protest? Okay, got it. The issue is an easy one to understand. Mexico started a process, under Nieto, to open up the Mexican oil industry. For decades it’s been nothing more than a cash cow for the government to syphon funds into social programs. The problem is, the funds never really showed up! As you can probably guess, most of the profits went to the Political Elite in Mexico City, but the story of taking care of the people sounded good. Well, as the industry became far more competitive in the past ten years, it’s become very clear to Mexico that their cash cow was not going to be competitive enough to keep the funds flowing. Along comes the idea of privatizing part of Pemex. Not all of it because that might make the pubic upset. The freebees must flow, but only enough to keep the poor content. January 1, 2017 was the next phase in this privatization process and that called for artificial prices to increase, much like the GCC states had to do.

Now, in a normal, healthy society, a 25% increase in gas would not be popular and it might even lead to a few televised protest, but Mexico is nowhere near having a “healthy society”. Mexico is a societal mess and the gas price increase is just another stone placed on top of an overburdened public psyche.  Protest are nothing new in Mexico and the government of Mexico is notorious for underestimating their public’s reaction. Not only does the Mexican government not anticipate public anger, it has an even longer history of overreacting to such anger and meeting protest with violence.

Is any of this new news? Is any of this worthy of catching someone’s ear? Yep and here is why.

IT’S TRUMP’S FAULT:

A blast from the past tone is taking shape not only in DC, but with other nations. “It’s Trump’s fault”! Trump has scared the Mexican government and its people into believing they are all going to slide down the economic scale into crisis because of Donald Trump! What a great and classic pitch line from Mexico City. If you cannot find a solution to your problem, then blame someone else! Now, a few things are worthy of addressing in this, “It’s Trump’s fault” storyline. It seems clear now that Trump has figured out the power of social media, at least far better than most of DC. You see, to typical politicians, social media, twitter as the example, is nothing more than a tool to garner votes. Yes, most political pundits have figured out the advantage of social media, but almost all of them have underestimated its real power! But, not Trump. It appears he understands far better than most of DC the art of shaping other’s reactions with the simple motion of a post. Let me give you what I now believe may be a prime example of what Trump has figured out. What if? Yes one of my old, favorite games, but what if Trump never clearly defined what he meant when he said, “Mexico will ‘pay’ for the wall”? The peso’s nosedive in the past few months could be the real indicator. What did he mean when he said, “pay”? NAFTA. The fear of the honey hole called NAFTA. If you forgot what it was or never knew in the first place, here is my version. NAFTA, Not a Fare Trade Agreement!  Corporations get cheap labor and very little environmental oversight and the Mexican government gets to show their people they created jobs in Mexico. Did it create an unbalanced trade environment? That’s a good topic for someone else to take on, but I will say in the US it is undeniable the impact was the loss of jobs on a massive scale. Perceptions! That is what politicians worry about, not reality!  To working class “Joes” in the US, NAFTA was the SHAFTA! Trump saw this and he levered it to win states that stunned the Democrats!

Has Trumps statements impacted Mexico? Yes. Is Trump to blame for the status of Mexico? No! If things go bad, real bad in Mexico, you can bet the battle cry from the Democrats in the US will be, “It’s Trump’s fault”! Oh ya, you will hear the same statements coming out of Mexico City.

What’s wrong in Mexico is not based on a 25% increase in gasoline. What is wrong in Mexico is not based on Trump’s “words” on social media or campaign platforms. What’s wrong in Mexico is the reality that Mexico has no true governance! Nieto is just another in a long line of delusional, out of touch, social elites from Mexico City who see the rest of Mexico as Fly over country full of peasants! Hmmm.. let me think. What other political party simply looks at the majority of their country’s landmass as “ fly over country”? And they wonder why Trump won the Rust Belt!!!!