AMONGST  THE HYSTERIA, A MISSILE FLIES? DID ANYONE PAY ATTENTION?

Honestly, I turned off the news streams in the West for the past two days. Did anyone think for a moment that as the new program for immigration into the US started and outcry of “Wait for me” wouldn’t start? No matter what the details of the plan may have been, the reaction was going to be the same. The fact that a Obama appointed US Department of Justice member decided to make a political show out of the event only shows how off balance the US really is.  Yes. Once again in the US, party politics is far more important than national / international issues. Well, that is why I turned off the Western news!

A few days ago, the Iranians launched a mid-range missile. It was yet again, a clear violation of the worthless agreement signed by the Gang of Six on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Did anyone notice? The Trump Team did and I am sure the intelligence community in several countries noticed as well.

So what?

Is this the first time the Iranians have openly violated this signed “joke”? No! So, why not just ignore this one just like the others? What is different? What changed? Yep. Trump! That’s what. An opportunity has presented itself and the Trump Team is likely to jump on it. Who called for the emergency meeting of the UNSC? Yep. The US. Does this mean the issue is about to become a major issue? In my book it’s very possible. President Trump has spent every single day since his swearing in addressing the list of issues he stated he was going to address if he became President. Why should he skip the Iranian nuclear deal? Okay, yes, he has sidestepped the Embassy issue, but I don’t know for how long. Sisi got to him on the issue and the need for Egypt to be “ on board” with other issues in the region may have moved the Embassy event to the right…… but who knows for how long! Trump has said time and time again what a bad “deal” this Iranian nuclear program event was. How could he let the Iranians openly defy the agreement so early in the Trump’s term? I don’t think he will and that is something the Iranians may have miscalculated.

Power Struggle continues!

Could the Iranian hardliners take this bold action for a reason? Could they be more concerned about forcing the US to react and thus strengthening the hardliners position in Iran, just prior to another election cycle? Yep. That wouldn’t be a new tactic on their part.

When President Trump spoke to the Tsar last week, did the Iranian issue come up? Who knows but it’s very possible something was said that impacts Iran’s future in the region. Syria and Iran’s involvement in the conflict was most likely the catalyst for any conversation on the Persians. Did the Russians know the Iranians were about to test this missile? It depends on what status the site was in. The intelligence community has the information that allows them to predict a test launch, but what day is it actually going to take place depends on several factors with one usually being when fuel is loaded. Anyway, the point is this. Does President Trump’s reaction to the Iranian launch start with a conversation with the Tsar or does he have his UN Ambassador make a point at the UNSC meeting, or does he do both.

Rumors:

The US needs an event to set the whole issue of the Iranian program into motion. The Trump Team may even have a plan for how they wish to deal with the Iranian program. Did they need this launch to get the ball rolling? Has the Tsar already mapped out his plan for Iran and the region? Does he wait for the US to set the game into motion?

Is the issue of the immigration policy changes in the US going to blind the American people to the point that other events in the world go unnoticed? Internal bickering is sweet music to the US enemies’ ears!

Let’s see what happens next.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/01/31/UNSC-to-hold-urgent-talks-on-Iran-missile-test.html

THE US RELATIONSHIP WITH MEXICO. THE SAGA CONTINUES.

Back to the topic that seems to occupying a great deal of time in the US and rightfully so.

Mexico. I’ve written about what is taking place. I’ve written about why it’s taking place and I’ve written about where it might all be going. So, what is there left to write about? Well, I want to go back to my discussion on the concept of the pressure cooker and how the Mexican Government works hard to keep this social pressure cooker from gaining steam!

Short and sweet. As I have said, by pushing those in Mexico who are desperate, desperate due to a long history of failed, corrupt governments, the Mexican Elite keep them from marching on Mexico City. If those people are force to stay home, where does the Mexican Government believe they will show up? Yep. Pressure!

Now, when you have enough pressure on two objects, what tends to happen? The meld, merge, become one mass.

In Mexico you have the poor who have just in the past few years began an old tradition in Mexico; armed resistance. Object number one!

In Mexico, you have far left, Socialist Universities who students are made up for kids from poor, rural families. Universities that were designed to give the poor some perception of hope, but not have them walking into the high-rises of Mexico City taking jobs reserved for the upper-class children of Mexico’s Elite! Object number two!

Look…………… It’s simple. The more the pressure rises in Mexico, a nation that is unstable on a good day, the more the risk of real social unrest comes into play.

As the risk of social unrest grows, the more the Mexican Government will become desperate to find a relief valve.  The Wall will not allow the people they want out of Mexico to leave. Yes. They don’t see the Wall as not letting people in. the Mexican Government sees the Wall as not allowing people out!!!!!

Options:

The Mexican Government will look at the following options.

Reach out to new Partners, Partners that would upset the US perception of the relationship between the US and Mexico and would also allow the party in opposition to lash out at the US President. Short answer….. reach out to the Tsar or the Dragon for the simple fact of pissing the US off.

https://sputniknews.com/world/201701191049777313-mexico-petition-corruption-putin/

Here is the key flaw in that revenge minded approach. It doesn’t solve the people issue in Mexico! Those who are desperate are still desperate! The Tsar and the Dragon are not about creating jobs in Mexico. They could care less! Leverage against the US. Is it worth it? Does it give the Tsar or the Dragon an advantage? Probable the Dragon more than the Tsar. Will it happen? Depends on the Dragon and the Tsar, not Mexico City.

The other option is far…..far ….. more difficult! Clean up the county. Give it a real government. Create a true legal system. Develop a functional Law Enforcement concept. Find local leaders who are only somewhat corrupt. PS. They are all corrupt to some level and that holds true in most parts of the world to include the US. Take down the Drug culture running the nation. Prisons that actually hold real criminals and not just political, social threats like Doctor Mireles! You know….. Rebuild the whole country! Now, as a matter of fact, this “rebuild” theory was started a few years ago with the last two Mexican Presidents, but it was nothing more than media lip service. Good members of the Mexican Police, Military tried, but in the end, the real leadership of Mexico failed again.

Here is the option the Mexican Government cannot move forward on. They cannot agree to the Wall! They can’t do it quietly. They can’t do it publicly. The Wall means only one thing to Mexico. Social pressure! Social pressure that leads to social unrest. An unrest that could and will spread like wildfire throughout Mexico!

Yep. The Wall is an issue, but not just for US Democrats dreaming of changing the voting demographics of the US.

The Wall is an issue of national survival for Mexico.

What actions will a nation take when the words, “National Survival” are used?

Dangerous times could be ahead for you see, when a government feels truly threatened, it will create an enemy that is even more dangerous than the current threat. It will fabricate a threat in a desperate hope to distract the public!

THE US PRESIDENT FAVORS “SAFE ZONES” WHY?

Not sure with all the actions being taken by the new US President, the Syrian story is the one worthy of discussion today, until I began to think about why President Trump would be in favor of “Safe Zones”?

In everything he does, the needs and the desires of the US come first! That is what he said the day he was sworn in and that is what I believe he intends on doing. So, how do Safe Zones in Syria fit into that picture? Let’s look at a few key questions and see if the picture is more complicated than we may think.

Do Safe Zones in Syria address the issue of Refugees coming to the US?

 Yes, to the extent of those fleeing the conflict in Syria. By the way, even if you don’t approve of the stern actions taken by the Russians, you will have to admit the flow of people out of Syria has declined, yes, for a multitude of reasons.

  If President Trump is going to declare a “moratorium” on Refugees from place like Syria, then having an alternative plan seems logical and gives the Trump Team something to answer the         critics with.

 Committing US forces to the conflict area is not a concept Trump campaigned on and that issue would come under immediate attack by his opponents. The size of the force and the duration of   the mission would be the first two talking points.

Who’s on-board with this plan?

 Some “rumors” say the Turks and the Russians are good with the idea. Rumor! I can guarantee  you Assad is not okay with the concept! I can tell you the Iranians are really not okay with the     idea! We know the Turks have been calling for such a plan from the very beginning of the  conflict. Can the US drive one of those wedges I’ve been talking about between the Turks and the Tsar? Just how bad does the US need to keep Turkey in the Western Camp? If the Russian    are onboard with the idea, what does that say for Assad? Look. The Russians submitted a “Draft” Constitution for the Syrians at the latest round of so called Peace Talks. What kind of  message does that send when another nation drafts another nation’s new Constitution? I’ve  said it for the past four years; Assad doesn’t determined the future of Syria. The Russians and to some extent the Iranians pull the strings. Assad is the Eye Doctor with a title.

   The “Rumor Mill” has the Turks, the Russians and the US holding safe zones in Syria. Separate  and based upon geographically important areas. That same rumor mill has Iran planning no official role in any of the process! Some say the Shia Militias would be told to go back to Iraq. I simply don’t see how the Persians sign on to any of this. Hezbollah’s losses in Syria have been huge and to end the process by being told to go home, I’m betting that won’t happen. In that part of the world, who you shoot at can change with one text message!

  Plan! Yes, you can bet a “plan” has been developed for some time now. It’s what the US military does best! Is there a base plan that simply needs modifications based upon new factors? Yes. Is actually executing such a concept complicated? Oh…..absolutely!

Kurds? Where are the Kurds in the plan? Does the dream of an independent Kurdistan once  again go up in smoke? Do the Kurds agree to this plan? Where they in on the discussion? The  odds are, if this conversation has taken place, it took place between the Turks, Russians and the Trump Team with little input from the Iranians or the Kurds. Backdoor briefings to some of the    other key players in the region, Israel, Jordan and Egypt and maybe even a few GCC members,  well, that’s possible. But, it depends on what level of fidelity this plan actually has reached.

Messaging:

Here is something we may need to think about. Perhaps this was not the official announcement  of the plan? Perhaps this was a message to the Russians and the Turks. We know the Trump Team has been talking to the Russians and you can bet the Russian have been talking to the Turks about what the US has said to them, at least to some degree! Perhaps, just perhaps, this is   yet another indication of how the Trump Team intends to work “Information Operations”? Sit back, make a bold statement to the press and then watch, at all levels, the communications it creates. It’s a process the Russians are master of. Messaging is a tool President Trump learned  as a Businessman and he absolutely has carried that skill with him to the White House.

Conclusion:        

 Is the US about to embark on a mission inside of Syria? I doubt it. It could be true, but something  tells me the reaction to the “message” is what the Trump Team is looking for. Two things are happening as I write this. One, the Turks are wondering if the Russians are working with the US without telling the Turks. Two, the Iranians are wonder the same thing!  Fascinating how a single sentence from a powerful person like the US President can set so much in motion. I think Trump is Master of Information Operations and I think he is better at this skill craft than his Intelligence            Community is. Let’s see what unfolds! 

TRUMP AND THE “WALL”. WHAT DOES IT TRULY INDICATE?

I had another topic I wished to cover this morning, but once I saw President Trump was going to make a statement about the wall along the Mexican border, I figured I would head back to that issue one more time.

I’ve addressed the issue of Mexico and its lack of governance on several occasions, but for the sake of making my position clear, well, here we go one more time.

Fact: Hundreds of thousands of are people trying to sneak into the US ever year why and why are they overwhelming attempting to do so along the US’s border with Mexico? A two part question and so, a two part answer. Short and to the point on both counts.

Why are they trying to get into the US? Because the government that rules the nations they are coming from, predominately Mexico and other Central and South American nations, have failed and continue to fail to provide them the basic needs of society, safety and opportunity. This failure has some of its origin in the failed US policy towards its fellow “Americas”. But, the ability to correct for that failure has been the failure of these same nation’s governments! Simply put. They have had time to develop their own policy for success and they have failed to do so.  

Why are they overwhelmingly coming from Mexico? Because Mexico doesn’t want them to stay in Mexico, even when most of them are Mexico’s own citizens. What better way to relieve potential unrest than to push those who may march on your capital into another country? Yep. In the eyes of the Mexican government, they are just passing on their own social failure in hopes of it not showing up on the streets of Mexico City.

Answer number two is exactly why any Mexican government would be and will be against a wall.

By the way.

Dear Mexico;

               Pull out of NAFTA…… I dare ya! Hell! I Double Dog dare ya! Watch how that plays out for ya.

ENEMIES:

What do enemies look for when they face a superior force? Yep. Leverage!

How many times have you heard someone say, “The Terrorist are planning on infiltrating the US along the border with Mexico”. Yes, they have said Canada as well, but the volume of people is the driving factor, unless you are a very clever enemy and go where the protection is weak. That’s a story for another day! The fact of the matter is, the US Southern border holds the highest probability for successful entry to the US when the only resources you have are your feet. The other fact of the matter is, our enemies understand the advantage of looking like everyone else crossing the border. Look, it you think this is a racist statement, then you are just an ideological fool. The fact is, the ability to blend in with the pack is easier along the Southern Border than anywhere else. But, and it’s a big “but”, the real issue is not the US’s enemies. It’s not the chance of sophisticated Terrorist sneaking across the Southern Border disguised as a group of poor, downtrodden Mexicans.  

POLITICS:

Here is where my version of the current wall issue becomes very, politically ugly!

One party in the US sees the future  voting base from this unauthorized entry, that is my stab at Political Correctness,  favoring them. Perhaps not the ones that sneak in, but their children, who will be able to vote.

Yes. To one US political party, it’s not about Human Rights. It’s not about being, “Compassionate”. It’s about power! Political power! I’ve said this before and I will say it again. If the folks sneaking across the US Southern Border were known to very conservative and despised government supported programs, do you think for a minute that same US political party would be in favor of them coming to the US?

THE WALL:

Does the concept of a “Wall” really work? Well, ask a nation under siege. Ask Israel.

Is a wall the right answer? It’s the right answer for those in the US who fear the movement into their country has become uncontrollable. Perceptions! The world works off of perceptions!

Will the Wall upset the Mexican government? Oh yes!  Can the Mexican government stop its construction? No.

Does the new US President gain status by living up to his promise of building a Wall? Yes!

Are there going to be second and third order effects by this wall concept? There already has been.

How upset does the Mexican government get? Who can they turn to as a new trade partner? What new partner and even new “relationships” would upset the US the most? Yep. I think you know.

Imagine the Dragon’s military conducting joint drills with the Mexican Military.

Where is all of this going? Well, it’s not going where either side of the argument might think. 

TRUMP AND TURKEY’S “DEMANDS”

It’s very clear the future of NATO, the future of the US’s relationship with Turkey and the status of the Syrian conflict are not on what we call, “The ten meter target list”. Simply put, they are not “Hot Button” items, at least not this week. As it should be, domestic issues will consume the new US Administration’s first week or so in office. Other “issues” will come up in the daily meetings, briefings, but its obvious President Trump is out to show he is different. He’s out to prove as much as possible, “I mean what I say”. That was evident with his actions first thing Monday am. But, as the dust settles on everyone still in shock that he is in the White House, other issues will continue to boil to the top and very few of them are going to be more important or more emotional than the issues of Russia and NATO. As I’ve said before, the US relation with Turkey is not a hot topic for the new President, but Turkey’s role in NATO provides the topic with an above normal ranking.

DEMANDS:

To put it politely, it appears the Turks are making demands part of the initial rapprochement strategy with the new US President. To make it simple, the Turks want Gulen and they want the US to stop supporting the PYD. Now, President Trump has already been told by his team these demands would be on the table long before the Turkish Deputy Prime Minister gave his press conference, so some level of discussion has taken place on both topics. By the way, coming across like you are making “demands” to a guy like Trump is a very poor strategy! It works with passive, progressive people and Trump is anything but that!

OPTIONS:  

What does a Billionaire Businessman’s mind think of when someone comes to the table “hard” from the beginning? What happens when the other side starts with, “demands”? My bet is, the first reaction was or will be, “so, what’s in it for us”? “What happens if we don’t give them Gulen? What happens if we don’t stop support for the PYD? If we give them one or both, how does it help us”? Yes, I know, this is somewhat the typical discussion any Department of State or National Security Team would have with any President. The difference is, Trump’s perspective was shaped by years of hardline, complex business deals that had huge levels of risk, financial risk. Short answer; he thinks like a Businessman, not a politician and that has been the worry of the professional political elite from the day they thought he may go to the White House.

What if President Trump says “no”? What if he says “No” to both issue or to one of them? Then what? What does Turkey do? Step away from NATO? No! Let more refugees flood into Europe? No. That plan has run its course and it was a concept the Tsar came up with anyway. So, what does Turkey do? How mad does the Mad Turk get? Simplistic “upside vs downside” logic. If that is what President Trump falls back on, a business model, then how does Turkey react? Better yet, did anyone in Turkey formulate the potential responses that might come from the new US President? Just how far did they think this through?  When you toss a hardline stance on to the table from the very first meeting, you need to have a plan in case it all goes bad! What’s Turkey’s “plan”?

OUTSIDE INFLUENCE:

Can the Turks take such a hardnose approach to the new US Administration without anyone else having an opinion of what it might lead to? Did the Turk’s share with anyone the stance they were going to take? Did anyone else catch wind of it? If you guessed the Tsar, you win the prize! Remember those “wedges” I have been talking about? Well, the Tsar has been driving wedges for several years and the Ottoman wedge with the West is absolutely one of his top three! So, it stand to reason Russia would anticipate Turkey’s initial stance and they most likely have anticipated the possible courses of action from the US, based on Trump’s personality profile. A profile they have spent a great deal of time developing!

What does this stance by Turkey mean to the Tsar? Does it help or hinder the Russian goal of weakening NATO? What are they anticipating the most logical response from a person like Trump to be? Perhaps they even, behind the scenes, helped Turkey formulate the stance? Piss Trump off, weaken NATO as a second order effect? That would not surprise me in the least! Keeping Turkey on an adversarial stance with the West / US / is a logical goal of the Russians. Nudging a hothead like Egodan to do so is really fairly easy!  

THE US OPTIONS:

As I stated before, the basic logic with President Trump will go something like this. “What’s in it for us”? Question number two, “So what”? Does the US need Gulen? Does it need to support the PYD?  Does it make the US look weak? Does it send the wrong “message” if he gives in on both demands? Hint, successful Businessmen seldom give in! Is there a compromise on the two topics? In Trumps opinion, is a compromise even worth thinking about? The complex side of this discussion, when it finally takes place, will have some interjection from the Department of State and the Intelligence Community and they will both address the issue of Russia! Is this decision just about the relationship with Turkey or does the Russia factor have to be injected? My vote is yes! The Russian “factor” must be placed on the table. The issue is, the Trump Team has to get a very Attention Deficit Disorder / ADD/ President to follow the logic. Yep. I would be willing to bet you the Russian profile on Trump has him listed as “ ADD”! Will they leverage that profile marker? You bet! Trump’s ability to listen to an entire, intel breakdown of an issue is going to be a work in progress. Why do you think the topic came up before he was ever even sworn in? Not a new issue when it comes to US Presidents, but it will be an issue as that will impact how decisions are made.

MY BET:

When will this issue of Turkey’s demands really come to the table? When the Trump Team starts to really engage the Tsar’s Team, that’s when! The one thing the Trump Team will be able to do is convince him to let them do more homework, before they ask him for a final decision! “ Mr. President. Let’s see where the Russians are with their relationship with Turkey. Let’s see just how committed they are to their new so called relationship after we place a few other ‘options’ on the table”! Can the US pull the Russians away from Turkey? Do they even need to? Are there other “options” out there? One thing is for sure. The future of the US relationship with Turkey will start as a bargaining chip and it will not be Egodans chip to bargain with. Get use to it folks. The Trump way of doing business is based on a very different formula than what has been historically used by the US Department of State. Turkey's “demands” are just one example of how things are going to be different!

By the way. I saw a few French readers are passing my post around. Keep up the good work. An audience I will address more and more in the near future. You have some interesting times ahead of you.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-has-two-main-demands-from-trump-administration-to-mend-ties-with-us-fm.aspx?PageID=238&NID=108319&NewsCatID=510

IT’S THE FIRST MONDAY FOR THE TRUMP TEAM. IT’S “ PRIME TIME”!

Well, much to the mortification of Hollywood and the left, it finally happened. Donald Trump is now President of the United States.

Two weeks ago, I addressed the issue of wedges and how the Trump Team was going to need to start driving wedges between certain weak alliances in order to set a course for a more stabilized US foreign policy. The Gorilla in the room that needs to be addressed is the so called alliance between the Tsar and the Dragon. I’ve beat that one up in several post, so let me move on to one that is not as important, but needs to be worked and worked soon.

Iran:

Safe to say the only thing that holds the alliance between the Tsar and the Persians is the common goal of countering the West / US/ in the region. Is there love between the Persians and the Russians? No. Is there a history of them holding hands? No. Do the Persians feel like they are “played” by the Tsar? Yes. Are the Persians attempting to fulfill the Tsar’s dreams in the region? No. The Iranians have their own dreams and they are not based upon the vison of Moscow. Leverage point West and the foundation for a wedge if the driving team knows what they are doing.

So a so called “Peace Conference is being held starting today and the topic is Syria. Five years ago on this blog site I stated that the moment the Iranians or the Russians decided Assad was no longer needed, the end of conflict in Syria would be near. Here is the problem. The Russians are dealing to end the conflict and the inputs of the Iranians are not on the table. The Tsar is setting the terms of the “deal” and that deal is predicated on how he can leverage the Mad Turk and the new US President. Iran may hold up their hand when it comes time to vote. They may even be allowed to voice an opinion of what needs to happen in Syria, but words in the air will be all that opinion amounts to. The future of Syria is tied to the future of Eastern Europe and NATO’s status. What the Persians want for Syria is of no consequence in Moscow. Syria is a bargaining chip and a tool, nothing more! The so called “land bridge” between Iran and their proxy fighters in Lebanon, that to can become a bargaining chip for the Tsar and Trump to parlay over. The future of Syria is not up to Iran or the GCC members, or at least the Tsar Doesn’t think so. I will address that potential fatal flaw in a few.

PRIME TIME:

Here comes the Billion dollar question. Is the Trump Team ready for Prime Time?

Does the new US team understand how to leverage what is taking place between Iran and the Russians?

If I was asked how to place a wedge between the Iranian and Russian “Alliance”, this would be my plan. Ready?...........................................  I would let the Tsar handle Syria anyway he wants. Don’t show up to the talks. Don’t have an opinion of the outcome of the talks. When the Tsar has his big post event press conference, let him have all the glory! Let him build all the anger towards him. Let the Persians feel like second class citizens in their own backyard. Yep….Let the Tsar abuse the Persian dreams and build the Persian anger. Shift the hatred! Can the West and the US see the advantage of letting the Tsar win? In the end, if Tlass becomes the proxy, interim leader of Syria. Tlass, a man who walked away from Assad and the Syrian Army in 2012.  A man who fled to one of the GCC nations. Is this someone the Persians had in mind to replace Assad? No! It’s a Russian, Turk idea, and the Iranians were not in on the concept and will not be given a vote! Turkey wants the Shia Militias out of Syria. The GCC want the Shia Militias out of Syria and the Tsar has no advantage by agreeing to let them stay. In the mind of the Persians, does the land bridge survive? Is the Tlass deal good for Iran? No!

So, what becomes of the Tlass deal if it takes place? Do the Iranians give up on their dreams of controlling, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon? No! Do the Iranians see Moscow as the real threat to this dream? Hint. They already do!

So what does the Trump Team get from this event? If they follow the strategy I spelled out, what is the advantage? The wedge! That is the advantage! The thin cloth that binds the Iranians to the Russians is torn. The Iranians become more isolated than at any time in the past decades. Now, here comes the hard part for Trump’s team. The Tsar has probably played this Peace Conference / Tlass/ issue out. Has he come up with what he believes is the proper counter to damaging his relationship with Iran?  Well, he’s come up with something, but how it will play out, not even the Tsar can be assured. Risk. It’s his middle name.

So imagine this. Imagine after the Tsar declares a victory in solving the Syrian Civil War and after the Trump team has agreed to go along with it, the next event that involves the Persian is the US announcing it is going not honor the Iranian nuclear deal? Does the US go to the UN and address this? Who knows, but knowing Trump’s style, probably only from the position of informing the UN not “asking” them. You can bet this will be on the agenda when President Trump meets the British Prime Minister. Don’t worry about Merkel. I’m not sure the new US President cares what she has to say about Iran.

Look. In the end. What the Trump Team cares about is the Iranian nuclear arms deal. The future of Syria is not on the first 100 day list. The destruction of the Daesh is! The deals made between Trump and Putin are made at their level, not the Iranian level. The blame for making the Persians look insignificant in the region will go to Moscow, not DC or London! The nuclear deal will fall apart and the Iranians will be faced with a dramatic decision. Do they openly resist the new Syrian “deal”, or do they let the Tsar win? My met is the Shia Militias are not coming out of Syria anytime soon and in the next few months they may even have new targets! There will be no peace in Syria anytime soon, but the Iranian nuclear arms deal will change and the status of NATO will change as well.

Yep. It’s Monday morning and the new Team in DC better be ready for Prime Time! 

TRUMP’S STYLE OF FOREIGN POLICY…. WHAT WILL BE THE REAL DIFFERENCE?

Well, according to the Liberal, Socialist, and Pacifist left, the end is nearly upon us! The U.S. is only 28 hrs. away from having Donald Trump as President! What is going to happen? How soon will the rest of the world really begin to hate the US? News flash….a large part of the world already dislikes the US and most of them work at the United Nations. Everyone is speculating on what Trump will be able to do and not be able to do. What will he change first? Side note: The idea that over fifty sworn political members of one US political party would deliberately not attend the inauguration is pathetic, but I won’t run down that rabbit hole now.  

We could play, “What if”, all day, but let’s take a look at a broader more important topic that will have a much larger impact on the next four years than what Trump does first or second.

STYLE:

What will be President Trump’s style in the realm of international affairs? For the past eight years, the US has taken a stance often attributed to “Progressive thinking”. Let an issue come to the table, see what the other side / sides/ have to say and or offer and then find a way to compromise that hopefully everyone will abide by. Risky in the business word and not widely accepted in just about any segment of the business world. This concept makes it extremely difficult to achieve individual goals that may not be popular with those who are coming to the negotiation table. It is easy to say, “no’ or “I don’t agree” when the point is made in a passive manner. It’s simply not how the world of international relations works. No. You don’t have to come to the table with a hammer or your shoe, Soviet jab there, but the odds of achieving an objective are not fundamentally based on capitulation to a common level.

Trump’s “style” will be very different. As I’ve said before, he attacks problems / issues/ with the attitude of an aggressive Businessman. A Businessman who has been very successful in many parts of the world. Will he come to the table with his shoe? No! Will he come to the table with a plan for what he wants to achieve? Yes. Will he leave room for negotiating a workable compromise? Yes! The art of negotiation is often the center of gravity for very successful Business minded people. Will the Trump team be aggressive? Yes and that is the real change for not only the US, but for all of those who have been dealing with the US. Is Trump’s “style” akin to Passive Aggressiveness? If I had to deal with his team on a continuing bases, I would bank on “Passive Aggressiveness[DS1] ” before and after the meetings, not during the meetings.

Offence / Defense:

Here is another way you can look at the issue of the pending Trump style.  For the past eight years, the US has come to the table on Defense! Worried the world was so angry for all the aggressive behavior the US had shown over the past decades that it had to apologize and just sit and listen. Disastrous!  A “Leader” who so many leaned on suddenly showed up and said, “I’m sorry and I don’t want to lead anymore”! The world slide into even a deeper crisis and that scared the US so much that they felt the only answer was to be even more neutral. These are the actions of Passive people. Defense! Everything you do is based upon not upsetting the other side. Everything you do is built around compromise!

Offense! Can the Trump Team go on Offense and not be perceived as being over aggressive? To the US’s enemies the answer will always be “No”! Can the Trump Team have a plan that is based on what is good for the US and what the US is willing to compromise on? Yes. Will the Trump Team have bartering as a centerpiece of its international policies? If you coming to the table with the Trump Team, you better be ready for that concept.  

Like it or not, the US has been on Defense for the past eight years. The Trump Team is coming to the table on Offense! Let’s see how that plays out.

---

 [DS1]

ERDOGAN AND THE EVER CHANGING FUTURE OF TURKEY.

“Terrorist”? Now if you deal in dollars or Eruos, you are a “Terrorist”? The same as having a bomb? This is the leader of one of the key NATO partners? Like the old saying goes, “with friends like this, who needs enemies”? It’s a good thing most of the important people in the world know Egodan is a nut job, but he’s a dangerous nut job. In classic Turkish style, the military, at least part of it, tried to remove him. Again, another old saying, “ when you go to assassinate someone….don’t miss”! Beautifully played by the Tsar, the Mad Turk ran into the arms of the Russian Bear and boy, is there some history there when it comes to the Ottomans and the Russians! Economically snubbed by the EU and completely misplayed by the US administration, Egodan, it really is a good nickname for him, has been floundering around, ranting and raving about everyone that is out to get him and or  Turkey! But now, now the dollar is the weapon of “Terrorist”? Egodan is man who truly believes that wild, inflammatory statements are the best way to get attention and then your way! The problem is, eventually, most people stop paying attention to the rants! How often have you witnessed a Mother or Father just walk away, ignore, a child’s hissy fit? Yep, the same seems to apply to Egodan. His comment about the dollar and the euro didn’t even make the major news networks in the West / US. Come to think of it, most of his statements don’t show up in the West at all! I wonder just how infuriated that makes him?  But, then again, most of his diatribes are for internal consumption and as such, coverage by Western Press may not upset him too much.

TURKEY’S FUTURE: 

I can’t remember if I addressed Turkey in my 2017 predictions and I’m too lazy to go back to look.  The attached article didn’t catch my eye because of the discussion of Turkey’s debt. It was the Terrorist statement that was the eye grabber, but the overall, economic future issue is worthy of someone conducting a detailed review. You can bet the lending and business communities are doing just that.

As has been the case in the US for the past eight years, leadership can only last so long when all they do is place blame for everything that is not going right in the country on someone or something outside of their control. The blame game works, but it only works for a period of time. What happens when the blame game begins to play out in Turkey? How does Egodan crack the whip if the Turkish economy continues to falter? What is the next level of “blame”? Better yet, is there anyone who he can turn to that can save him?

Putin! If your answer was the Russians, then you guessed wrong! The Tsar has one goal and one goal only with his tolerance of the Ottoman fool; the degradation of NATO. Well, really two goals. The movement of fuel, but the short term goal is to weaken NATO as much as possible. Pipes can be moved, nations cannot.

The puppet strings have been masterfully placed on the Ottoman Sultan, but the Tsar’s confidence in how strong they are is the question. Perhaps a few more common goals, a few more favors or concessions might do the trick, but bailing out the billions of dollars, Terrorist tools remember, of debt, well that is not going to happen given the status of the Russian economy. It’s easier for the Tsar to inflame the temper of the Ottoman than it is to pay off his delusional spending debt. Making a statement equating the dollar to Terrorism, well, that was music to the Tsar’s ears. Drive that wedge! Keep pushing the Sultan to walk away from the West and NATO.

When the Tsar and President Trump meet, I wonder what part of that conversation will involve the Turks, if it even does. The Sultan will have to sit and wait to see what message his “friend” that Tsar brings him from the meeting. The Tsar will want to push the issue of NATO and Eastern Europe, but he will do so as a bargaining chip, a huge chip at that. As for President Trump, the Businessman, NATO support and or the reduction of support is also a bargaining chip. A chip not just for Europe and truthfully, Europe is not the first bet Trump will make with that chip. That chip is saved for the Tsar. The question is, what does President Trump want in exchange?

One things is certain, the NATO discussion between the US and Russia will not involve Egodan!

Side note: The funding stream attached to NATO membership is something the Turkish military understands.

If the Tsar can win some level of concessions on the issue of NATO in Eastern Europe, then guess what? He doesn’t need the Mad Turk anymore and tossing someone aside is a specialty of the Tsar. Oh, by the way, when the handshakes and the photo ops are over and when the Sultan walks away, they still don’t like each other! Who can Egodan turn to if the Russians and the US write him off? Can he find a new friend? Can he speak to the Dragon? Will the Dragon want to speak with him? If not, he can do what every spoiled brat child has a tendency to do. He can create a bigger mess in his room!

Dollars, Euros and “Terrorism”…..just how mentally unbalanced is this guy?

 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/01/turkey-erdogan-says-dollar-euro-holders-are-terrorists.html]

MURDERS AND MEXICAN UNIVERSITIES IS THERE A STORY HERE?

Universities, the historical incubator of social discontent and often unrest. That holds true for Mexico as well and that is why this story caught my eye. Guerrero Mexico, the Southwest corner of Mexico. The historical birthplace of the unrest in Mexico. The murder of the tenth member of the faculty of the Autonomous University of Guerrero or their family members in the past year. If that is true, name me another institution of higher learning where ten members of that institution have been murdered in one year? Okay, leave out Syria and Iraq.

If you want to set in motion the potential for unrest, then allow something horrific to take place close enough to young college students that they can see it, talk about it and then have coffee over what it means. If you wish to add additional pressure on the Mexican government, let another story develop about death surrounding the life of those who live on or are associated with the Universities in Mexico. Let this all take place in the region of Mexico where the Universities were designed for the poor, working farm class families where pride runs deep for those who dream of their children having a better shot in life then they did. The memories of the 43 students who were rounded up and never seen again still runs deep in the social conscious of the common, working class Mexican. Yes, an event that could have brought down the Mexican government if it were not for the low expectations of its citizens that the government would ever tell the truth!

Why are these murders taking place at this University?  Is some latest, greatest drug gang behind these killings? Why? Look, the bottom line with any of those groups is this. If you don’t interfere with their ability to make money, then they could care less if you live or die. What is taking place at this university that has them taking such brutal action? Kidnappings for profit? Is that the game? Most likely not. Why kill the Son and the Husband? Is the school leading a social movement against the drug gangs in the area? That’s not out of the question, but nobody is making that claim that I have seen. I’m not going to play Homicide Detective here, but I will address the concern I am sure is, or should be, troubling the Mexican Government.  

REPERCUSSIONS:

Just how much attention do the murders at this University get? Are the leaders in Mexico City working this issue or are they relying on the inept and corrupt government of Guerrero to solve the case?  Basically, how much danger is in if for the government if they don’t solve this case? Trump is coming into Office this week and the issues with that are far more pressing to the leaders in Mexico City than yet another string of murders, even if they do have ties, once again, to a University.  The amount of energy the Mexican government will expend on this case will be directly proportional to the level of pain it may bring to them. I would be willing to bet the folks in Mexico City are spending more time monitoring the Social Media post coming from that campus and who is responding to them, then they are trying to stop what is taking place.

What happens if these murders are never solved? Will the students and faculty just move on?

What happens if the murders continue? That one is easier to answer. The government will have to at least appear to have some interest in the event, much like they did with the disappeared 43. Find a suspect, make a big scene arresting them or him and then declare victory. Remember the murders in Juarez? Over two hundred female victims and public outcry that boiled over into the US and then a Bus Driver was snatched and tagged for the whole show. Problem was, the murders continued!

CONSPIRACY:

Do you want to continue to cause increasing tension in Mexico?

Do you want to continue to destabilize the US’s Southern Border?

Do you want to continue to divide the US population on the issue of border security?

Do you want to force the U.S. to worry about its own backyard and less about other parts of the far away world?

If you desire all of these things, then continue to let Mexico slide into the mud of a collapsing, third world country.

Allow the Universities to become social hotbeds once again.

Allow the working class poor to continue to see Mexico City is indifferent to the rest of the “Fly over country” and watch the enemies of the U.S. leverage this pressure for their own gain.

Something is going on with the Autonomous University of Guerrero and it doesn’t matter if it’s something as simple as out of control drug gangs. The danger is far more serious than that.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/01/professors-murder-was-10th-linked-to.html

PRESIDENT ELECT TRUMP AND THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY.

 WHAT'S GOING ON?

I didn’t go back and check, but I am fairly sure I’ve addressed the intelligence communities “issues” in the past. Now, it’s safe to say, I have a firsthand experience with this operation and it’s “community” and as such, my opinion of what is taking place between them and the President elect may not be to the liking of either side of the US political arena. Let me get a few key statements out of the way and then I will defend my opinions.

·        Does the Intelligence community “shape” reports / briefings based on political / leadership issues? Yes.

·        Is the information that is often derived from the field level collection points changed? Yes.

·        Does this take place at only the highest levels of political leadership? No! It takes place, to some degree, at all levels. The art of editing “intelligence” is a poorly executed process.

·        Are Intelligence agency leaders politically influenced? Yes. The higher the brief, the more influenced they become.

·        Is the private sector as good as or better than government controlled agencies? In many cases, yes!

·        Do agency heads worry about not upsetting their Bosses? Sadly, the answer has become “yes” with an ever increasing trend.

·        Must “intelligence” be weighed against foreign policy or economic issues? Yes.

Okay look. Gathering relevant intelligence / information / at almost every level is difficult once you get past the “raw data” stage. A street cop gets a tip on a criminal and passes it on to a line supervisor. Then, the line supervisor decides is it worth passing on to the next level or did the Officer tell someone else without the Supervisor knowing about it. How many times does a slice of intelligence get reviewed, modified before it’s passed on, incorporated into a larger topic or just dropped? The whole process of initial gathering and then collation and then review and then more collation and then more approval is almost universal. It takes place to some degree at all levels, local law enforcement or satellite data. It’s a cumbersome, methodical process that has far more opportunities to be wrong that it does to be right. A picture of a new launch pad in North Korea doesn’t equate into the North Koreans are going to attack South Korea. Slices of information that must be combined with multiple levels of other data has a real tendency to become lost or worse, corrupted. When you factor in speed, the need for information in a very short period of time, the process becomes far less reliable. So, the “Art of intelligence gathering is extremely difficult. It’s often very expensive and even more often provides poor results or worse, false information! In the end, it’s a never the golden key to proper decision making. To some of my close friends out there, we lived by a saying. “First reporting is almost always wrong”!

Does this down and dirty explanation of how intelligence gathering works explain what is going on with Trump and the “Community” in the US? It only tells part of the story. The rest is ugly, in my opinion and just about as dangerous as anything can possibly be for the safety of the nation.

INTELLIGENCE LEADERSHIP:

Is it new news that agency level leaders can be politically motivated, intimidated? No. It’s been going on from the beginning.

Is something that has been going on in the past less dangerous in the 21^st century simply because, “it’s always been like that”? No! The world is changing by the minute and those changes can make old concepts, old accepted practices, extremely dangerous in today’s word.  Remember, with social media and the World Wide Web, opinions and perceptions move far faster than political response. “ Arab Spring”!

Leon Pennetta! Totally unqualified to lead the organizations he was politically chosen to head. Does anyone think for a minute the briefings he had prepared for his Boss were not skewed based upon what he thought his Boss wanted to hear or even worse, needed to hear? Is that any different that anywhere else? Pennetta is just one example of what takes place all over the world. Do you think for a second the Tsar’s key leaders shape reports based on what may upset him? The only time that takes place in the West is when an agency head is looking to expand their budget and even then, the information is taking with a grain of salt. “He” or she, “ Is just trying to protect / grow / their budget”!  

In the 21^st century, can nations afford to have such a key process such as “intelligence” manipulated based upon, “the old ways”? What happens when a person comes along and wins the election in the most powerful nation in the world and that person didn’t come from that “old way”?  What happens when that person is a Billionaire who has conducted “Business / Intelligence all over the world with just about every government that matters? What should happen when that person says, “what are you doing and how are you doing it”?

Look! Calling out the US Intelligence Community in the US is a very bad idea.

Having the political counterparts leaving office and the media that supports them inflame that issue is so dangerous to the US, the people should be very…very….worried.

It’s a hard, inaccurate and messy job. It’s a process that needs to run by complete professionals. It’s a process that cannot become a political tool as it has in the past.

Beware! This nonsense is more dangerous to the US than most of its people know.

Trust me when I tell you, the US’s enemies know this all too well! 

JERUSALEM! AN EMBASSY MOVE AND WHAT MIGHT IT MEAN?

Is the US really going to move their Embassy to Jerusalem? Is there really an advantage for the US to do so? What are the upsides? What are the downsides? If they do make the move, can the region really get any more violent? If the US doesn’t move, what will it hurt them? Was it just a campaign promise like thousands in the past? Has Trump already had this conversation with Israel? How would the Arab countries really react? Do the Palestinians really matter that much to them? Is it an issue of honor? Okay, I could go on for about an hour with snapshot questions, but trust me when I tell you, there are people who are assigned to come up with such questions and then have possible courses of action for each answer. Well, at least that is the way it is supposed to happen! Trump could very well be a CEO more than a President in that he has already made up his mind on what he wants to do on the issue and that is that! It wouldn’t shock me in the least.

This morning, on this topic, I think I will play one of my favorite games, yep, “What if”?

What if? What if President Trump really intends on moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem even when some of his “Experts” tell him it’s not a good idea?

What if Part of the “Deal” President Trump is going to form with the Tsar is to have the Russians support this move or at a minimum give a, “No comment”? The Russians get their way in Syria and the US gets Trumps way on the issue of the move! Not a fair trade, but that won’t be the only bargaining chip. Does the Tsar really care if the US moves their Embassy to Jerusalem? The fact of the matter is, large issues are the ones that go on the table when the Tsar and Trump finally, truly start communicating. Is the move large enough of an issue to even make the list? The stabilization of the region and the sphere of influence both nations envision, that is what will be negotiated. If the Embassy issue impacts ether of those two topics, then yes, the move will make it onto the table. In the end, it’s nothing more than symbolism, or a trigger! To be perfectly honest here, the issue will be decided or has been decided without the inputs of the Palestinians. Yes, they sent a letter to Trump and yes they gave politically vailed threats, but will the region burn itself down over the move? No!

What if? What if the move really goes through? What will the Middle Eastern Nations do? What they say is merely a matter of political words and so many words have been spoken in that part of the world in the past thirty years they simply all blend together. What will they do? More accurately, what can they do and what are they willing to do? Declare war on Israel? No. Allow Terror groups to increase attacks on Israel? A dangerous game, especially for the Abbas and Gaza! Can the countries of the Middle East afford to stand by and watch the city that is most sacred to their religion be formally recognized as part of Israel? Does anyone in this world truly believe that Jerusalem is not part of Israel, regardless of their religious beliefs? Does anyone really think that that city will someday be taken from Israel? So, just how much sacrifice are the counties of the Middle East willing to make? Are they going place their own nations in ruins over the move? No! Will violence come from this move? Oh yes! I can assure you there would be violence and perhaps on a scale not seen in for many years. If you want to give the Radicals fuel for a worldwide fight against the US, then make this move. Abbas is a puppet and the West ability to counter the global Terror network is already strained beyond its ability to maintain. Violence is a guarantee. Nation state support for the Palestinians will be in the form of lip service.  

The final, “What if”:

What if Trump has communicated to the Tsar, “Look, I’m moving our Embassy to Jerusalem and we need to make sure the groups that might cause trouble are dealt with prior to the move”. The message is this, “You and I determine the fate of the region and this is just one step in letting the region know who calls the shots”!

Now, you can punch holes in my theories all you want, but the fact of the matter is, Trump and Putin are going to sit down and figure out what needs to happen in the Middle East. You may not like that and it may make you angry I said that, but the world works off of reality and perception.

What does this potential move mean? It means the Tsar and Trump are going to meet and decide no matter what!

Post January 20^th 2017 is going to be an exciting time and a dangerous time for those poor people who will suffer the counterattacks. Yes, the victims of the world continue to be victims!

How disappointed God must be! 

NIETO, TRUMP AND MEXICO. WHO IS TO BLAME?

Okay, back to an area of the world that has always worried me and the events of the past few weeks have only strengthened my worries.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/01/pena-nieto-faces-unrest-in-mexico-as.html

After I read this story, I had to wonder just how soon the “Anti Trump” camp in the US would blame the inbound President for the events in Mexico. The good news for Trump, most of the Democrats could care less about Mexico and their actions in the past stand as proof. “Is there a vote to be had? If so, let me get a soundbite together quickly. If not, who cares”? That is the political way in just about every corner of the free world.

So, the price of gas in Mexico created this latest flare-up of protest? Okay, got it. The issue is an easy one to understand. Mexico started a process, under Nieto, to open up the Mexican oil industry. For decades it’s been nothing more than a cash cow for the government to syphon funds into social programs. The problem is, the funds never really showed up! As you can probably guess, most of the profits went to the Political Elite in Mexico City, but the story of taking care of the people sounded good. Well, as the industry became far more competitive in the past ten years, it’s become very clear to Mexico that their cash cow was not going to be competitive enough to keep the funds flowing. Along comes the idea of privatizing part of Pemex. Not all of it because that might make the pubic upset. The freebees must flow, but only enough to keep the poor content. January 1, 2017 was the next phase in this privatization process and that called for artificial prices to increase, much like the GCC states had to do.

Now, in a normal, healthy society, a 25% increase in gas would not be popular and it might even lead to a few televised protest, but Mexico is nowhere near having a “healthy society”. Mexico is a societal mess and the gas price increase is just another stone placed on top of an overburdened public psyche.  Protest are nothing new in Mexico and the government of Mexico is notorious for underestimating their public’s reaction. Not only does the Mexican government not anticipate public anger, it has an even longer history of overreacting to such anger and meeting protest with violence.

Is any of this new news? Is any of this worthy of catching someone’s ear? Yep and here is why.

IT’S TRUMP’S FAULT:

A blast from the past tone is taking shape not only in DC, but with other nations. “It’s Trump’s fault”! Trump has scared the Mexican government and its people into believing they are all going to slide down the economic scale into crisis because of Donald Trump! What a great and classic pitch line from Mexico City. If you cannot find a solution to your problem, then blame someone else! Now, a few things are worthy of addressing in this, “It’s Trump’s fault” storyline. It seems clear now that Trump has figured out the power of social media, at least far better than most of DC. You see, to typical politicians, social media, twitter as the example, is nothing more than a tool to garner votes. Yes, most political pundits have figured out the advantage of social media, but almost all of them have underestimated its real power! But, not Trump. It appears he understands far better than most of DC the art of shaping other’s reactions with the simple motion of a post. Let me give you what I now believe may be a prime example of what Trump has figured out. What if? Yes one of my old, favorite games, but what if Trump never clearly defined what he meant when he said, “Mexico will ‘pay’ for the wall”? The peso’s nosedive in the past few months could be the real indicator. What did he mean when he said, “pay”? NAFTA. The fear of the honey hole called NAFTA. If you forgot what it was or never knew in the first place, here is my version. NAFTA, Not a Fare Trade Agreement!  Corporations get cheap labor and very little environmental oversight and the Mexican government gets to show their people they created jobs in Mexico. Did it create an unbalanced trade environment? That’s a good topic for someone else to take on, but I will say in the US it is undeniable the impact was the loss of jobs on a massive scale. Perceptions! That is what politicians worry about, not reality!  To working class “Joes” in the US, NAFTA was the SHAFTA! Trump saw this and he levered it to win states that stunned the Democrats!

Has Trumps statements impacted Mexico? Yes. Is Trump to blame for the status of Mexico? No! If things go bad, real bad in Mexico, you can bet the battle cry from the Democrats in the US will be, “It’s Trump’s fault”! Oh ya, you will hear the same statements coming out of Mexico City.

What’s wrong in Mexico is not based on a 25% increase in gasoline. What is wrong in Mexico is not based on Trump’s “words” on social media or campaign platforms. What’s wrong in Mexico is the reality that Mexico has no true governance! Nieto is just another in a long line of delusional, out of touch, social elites from Mexico City who see the rest of Mexico as Fly over country full of peasants! Hmmm.. let me think. What other political party simply looks at the majority of their country’s landmass as “ fly over country”? And they wonder why Trump won the Rust Belt!!!! 

PART THREE OF THE 2017 PREDICTION. THE DRAGON GETS A VOTE!

Over the past few days, I’ve addressed the issue of predicting what might take place in 2017 and what really matters. So, the final part of that review deals with the Dragon. We’ve looked at the Tsar and Trump equation, but both of those theories are absolutely incomplete without factoring in the final piece of the triad that will determine the events of 2017 and beyond.

What does the Dragon want?

What is the Dragon willing to bring to the negotiation table? 

Does the Dragon attempt to make its mark on the word simply based on threats?

Here are three quick answers and then I’ll dive into each with more detail.

1.      The Dragon wants economic stability and that is nearly impossible with over 1.4 BILLION citizens.

2.      The Dragon is willing to compromise on shipping lanes, littoral lanes, for now. (Neutral water is the key phrase in 2017….remember that.)

3.       The Rabid Dog called North Korea and the survival of Taiwan. Two way the Dragon may work from the bases of threats.

Did the Dragon just wake up one day and say to itself, “I think I will swallow the most active littoral lanes in the world and see if I can upset everyone around me”? No! China is a nation that embarked on a capitalistic journey over 30 years ago with the intent to enslave the rest of the Western world on cheap goods and in the meantime use the funding to build an unmatched military. What happened next is classic and yes, predictable. The people of China, even the ones that run the country, became addicted to the lifestyle the Capitalistic based economy created. You see, the Dragon designed a very complex plan to carve out their slice of the world, a slice that would have to be huge given the 1.5 Billion people that would have to be served by this plan. Yep. A fatal flaw! They designed a very complex plan for their future and somehow truly believed they could keep their massive population loyal to the Communist philosophy, a philosophy that also has a fatal flaw; the suppression of individualism! In the end the Dragon now sits on its land with a very small percentage of its population reaping the rewards of this Master Plan. In the land of the Dragon, one person drives a new car while a hundred watch with envy. They are not part of the “plan”! That is the fatal flaw and the Dragon knows it.  Survival? How does the Dragon survive such a deadly mistake? Land, power, fear!

THE MEETING:

Will there be a face to face between Trump and the leader of the Dragon’s Master Plan, Jinping? Eventfully there has to be, even if relationships get worse. Both the US and the Chinese will have to show the world they are trying to make things right. As for the Tsar, his meeting has taken place. The Dragon and the Tsar have shook hands, with fingers crossed behind their backs! They will meet again, but when, well, that will depend on how President Trump starts his relationship with the Dragon. But, when Trump finally sets his “China Policy”, the world and the Tsar will wait to see how the Dragon responds. Will the Chinese approach with the carrot or the stick? Will it be more of one, but a little of the other?  Can the Dragon afford to have President Trump set the scene? Can the Dragon allow the South China Seas issue to be set by the US? The answer is no!

EXPANSIONISM:

By setting into motion a plan for becoming prominent on the world stage, the Dragon has become trapped in the death spiral of Expansionism! The land and materials of China cannot support the dreams of 1.5 Billion people. The Dragon now knows it needs more than just the littoral lanes of the Pacific. To survive, to keep the population of its land content and thus supportive, the Dragon must now fly to new territories! It must rule over distant shores. China may have dreamed of maintaining the “rule” through economic might. It may have believed that the threat of no longer providing low cost goods would be enough to keep the people of the ruled lands happy. Why, just listen to the economic “experts” in the West when they get paid to talk on the cable news. “ If Trump takes a hard stance with China, it will bring on economic disaster for the US”! Yes, to this level the Dragon’s plan has worked. Fear! Fear of not having cheap goods. Fear of a trade war! Doom and gloom! “We must not upset/ wake / the Dragon”! Then. Then along comes a Billionaire Businessman who suddenly, unpredictably, becomes President of the most powerful nation in the world.  A man who sees through the Dragon’s Master Plan. A man that knows it is not too late to break the economic slavery that has so masterfully been placed over the rest of the world. What does this mean to the Dragon? It means one thing. A threat. It means the Dragon now fears its soft spot has been identified. The ability to keep the people of the China content, loyal, is based upon all the world’s money flowing into China. Now, the most powerful nation in the world has a leader that stands up and says, “No”. A leader who states, “We conduct our economies on a level playing field or we don’t play at all.  A Businessman’s approach.  

THE DANGER:

Hacked emails, tinkering in another countries’ politics. This has been going on for thousands of years! The US sits today with DC foaming at the mouth over hacked emails of arrogant, ignorant politicians in the US and the people of the US are expected to hear their leaders talk of “ Acts of War”?

In DC and in the US government, “intelligent” people will try to warn the new President just how dangerous it is to anger the Dragon! Threaten the Dragon’s economic stability and you threaten the stability of the nation itself. Far more dangerous than emails and 20 year old hackers who happen to find the email sent by a group of idiots who put their passwords in the emails.

The Dragon has been content to fly over the lands of others inside of FEDEX.  Littoral lanes have spread the Dragon’s domain to all corners of the world. If the US decides to change the current course of the world’s economy, then it must be prepared for the possible response.  Sound like a warning to the end bound US President? Here is the bad news. The appetite of 1.5 Billion people is too much for the current plan of the Dragon.  Two choices face the Chinese. Scale back your expectations of your future. Make the world fear more than just your economic weapons!

2017, the year a Billionaire Businessman leading the most powerful nation in the world will make a decision that will determine the Dragan’s next move!

Remember these words. “ Neutral Waters”.

THE OPTIONS “DOORS” OF 2017. THE TSARS PERSPECTIVE

Yesterday I ended by part one of my 2017 Big Three predictions conversation with what actions Trump should consider first.  Today I’m going to take a hack, a funny word right now with the Russians, at what the optional “Doors” the Tsar will need to consider in 2017.

TIME FOR CHANGE OR STICK WITH THE PLAN?

For several years now, I’ve addressed the issue of the Tsar’s vision for Mother Russia by the year 2017. Some of us have espoused the theory that 2017 was a benchmark year for Putin. His “vision / plan” for Russia has some level of culmination in 2017. The pending elections are just part of the plan, but it’s very possible other benchmarks were to be met no later than 2017.  No doubt, the election of Donald Trump tossed brand new variables into the “Master Plan” and as I have said, no doubt modifications to the “Master Plan” have taken place given Trump’s victory. So, what does the Tsar do? Does he stick with the old plan? Switch to the new plan? Wait until he sits with Trump? Waits until he see what direction Trump really heads? Yes, there have been behind the scene meetings, but the Tsar is a visual, physical kind of person. It’s almost as if he was born in Missouri, “Show me”! What door, doors, does he pick?

WHAT DOES THE TSAR NEED IN 2017?

 Europe! The Tsar needs Europe to lean away from sanctions on Russia. The Tsar needs Europe to see Russia as a reliable Ally in 2017. The Tsar needs Europe to depend on Russia more in 2017 than at any time in the recent past. When President Trump comes to the table with, “What do you want? What worries you”, the Tsar will most likely start this conversation with Europe and the subtopic of NATO. His actions in the Middle East are about fuel and they are about countermeasures. Remember my theory of how the Tsar has manipulated the immigration of Middle Easterners and Africans to Europe; the weaponization of migration! Does President Trump understand the crisis Europe is experiencing is a deliberate process? A process set in motion by the Tsar as he leveraged passive, progressive European leaders. Does President Trump realize the Tsar’s concept of creating change in European governments by manipulating immigration? When Trumps says, “what do you want”, does the Tsar answer, “Eastern Europe without NATO”? An even more interesting question comes next. How does President Trump answer? From the Tsar’s point of view, demands and threats are more powerful than bartering. Is the Tsar prepared to barter? If so, what is he willing to place in front of Trump? What is the answer when the Tsar ask, “What do you want”? Is Trump prepared to answer? My recommendations from yesterday on Trump’s “door” of options may or may not be ready by the time this meeting takes place, but in the end, the Tsar will be ready for that critical meeting, for you see, he’s been planning! Here is my last question about this pending meeting? What if President Trump ask for something the Tsar is not willing to trade?

A COMMON BARTERING ISSUE.

If President Trump comes to the table and the bartering items he has is something as monumental as the future of NATO, then you can bet, the Tsar will need to be ready to give on a monumental issue as well. How bad does the Tsar desire to secure the future of Russia’s old “Buffer Zone”, Eastern Europe? Bad enough to break his apparent relationship with the Dragon? Yes. I believe he would do so in a heartbeat and here is why? There never was a “relationship” between the Dragon and the Tsar. Smoke and Mirrors with a little mixture of truth, that has been the Dragon and the Tsar’s relationship and they both know it. But……. Does Trump know this before their meeting? Does he truly understand the game the Tsar has been playing? Will President Trump take the bait? Does Trump trade Eastern Europe for a fake relationship?

In the end, Trump wants to make sure there is no alliance between the Dragon and the Tsar. The Tsar wants a Europe dependent on Mother Russia. The problem becomes, does the Tsar really have something of equal value to Eastern Europe? Will his love affair photo op with the Dragon trick the savvy Businessman, Billionaire President?  Oh ya….. in the end… the Dragon gets a vote and that is tomorrow topic.