2017.  ALL THE EXPERT PREDICTIONS. I THINK THEY MISSED THE MARK.

I think I’ve read more “expert” opinions, analysis, about 2017, then I’ve ever seen published. It must be the arrival of President Trump that has so many “experts” rushing to the keyboard. After finishing a few posted by some of the more reputable writers that cover the Middle East, Asia, Central and South America, the real hot spots in the world, I sat and pondered why I didn’t feel like they had made a clear argument for their points of view.

Just how many “small” issues can a person who is trying to forecast the future afford to cover without blurring the real important of their prediction? Is it not simpler to keep it “simple” when doing predictions? Doesn’t an “Expert” run the risk of being wrong by getting two technical. “ The price of fuel in Africa will impact the elections in Nicaragua”, or some other over educated statement by a professional drunk writer in his 60s or the always abundant College Professor who’s view of the world comes from feeding pigeons from the Campus park bench at lunch time as he works on his fifteenth novel on the “ Middle East”. Yep…. Violence sells!

Okay, so I took my swipe at most of the junk I read about what will take place in 2017. Yes, the antithesis,( that’s right… I used “ antithesis”…Sister Bernice would be proud), would be just as worthless. “ The world will be more dangerous in 2017 than in the past given Trumps victory”. Sadly most of the folks who get paid to sit sexy in front of the camera go just about this deep in their analysis, but then again, they are not paid because they are intelligent; right Megyan Kelly?

What is the right mixture when it comes to the art of predictive analysis? How do you avoid dumpster diving or sounding like you are scared to be pinned down? Does it depend on the topic under review? Yep. If you are out to talk about the world’s future, then the items addressed need to be very important, very large and very simplistically covered and they need to be reviewed in just that order. So, here we go, here is how I would tackle the topic of “2017 and where in the world is the World going”?

THE UNITED STATES, CHINA  AND RUSSIA: 

The actions of these three nations will set the course for the rest of the world in 2017. Yes, other nations will have events, other nations will have an impact on the world, but shy of some biological superbug being turned lose on the world by a sixth year med student, the actions of smaller nation’s events will be controlled by the Big Three!   

Where is the relationship between these three going in 2017?  Is Trump going to rock the boat with the Dragon while he reaches out to the Tsar? Is that the Trump plan? Some make it sound as such. I have a question for those “experts” who placed a bet on Trump’s actions. What about the plans of the Dragon and the Tsar? Did you factor that into your, “Trump will do this and Trump will do that”, prediction? If not, and I bet not, then you failed!

DOORS:

In front of all three leaders are dozens of doors, each leading to a course for the nation on a variety of topics and at each door is a team of “Expert Advisers” who pitch why their door is the best pathway for 2017. These “experts” come from all corners of society. Some are longtime, close friends, some are academy, some are corporate heads and some are old political mentors. The process these three leaders go through to choose the doors they will open can be unique to the leader. You see, the personality of each of the three is a key factor in what will take place in the word of 2017 and trust me, the team of experts, vendors, for each door,  dedicate a great deal of time and effort understanding these personalities. Even more interesting is the fact that many of these doors where designed prior to Trump’s election victory. A few months ago, I addressed the concept of nations coming up with their “plans” for dealing with the US elections and it was at that time many of these “doors” were developed. Backdoor meetings, unofficial communiques they are all played out by the Expert Adviser Teams as they designed the doors. Now that I’ve addressed my “door” concept, let me take a shot at Trump’s door decisions for 2017. I’ll address the Tsar’s and the Dragon’s in the next two days.  

THE WEDGE:

Wedge! In 2017 President Trump will need to drive a wedge between the Tsar and the Dragon. For all the talk and all the speculation about the increasing love affair between the Tsar and the Dragon, it’s nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Putin knows all too well that posing in front of a Dragon for purposes of showing your enemies who your new friend might make a great postcard, but that only holds true while the Dragon is not hungry. Quick reminder. Who owned most of the mineral rich Siberian landmass prior to the Russians? Yep. The land of Dragons! What does the Dragon need to continue to build it’s Kingdom? Yep. Everything that exist in the ground of Siberia.  Ask the Nixon Administration survivors, Henry Kissinger, what was the closest the world ever came to nuclear war? Hint, it was not the Cuban Missile Crisis.   

At the end of the day, the Tsar is better off with the West than he is with the East. Even his DNA shows him where he needs to place the future of Russia. Trump’s team must find the door that places a wedge between the Tsar and the Dragon. Yes, there may be sacrifices. Yes, some old Allies may feel betrayed, but then again, betrayal is one of the pillars of international affairs.   

Months ago, the Tsar’s team began to plan for the possibility of Trump’s victory. Understanding what the Tsar wants from Trump and Trump understanding what the Tsar desires that is the beginning of finding a wedge. Trump and the Tsar will meet soon after Trump takes his place in the White House. The meeting may be slightly delayed given the uproar of the information warfare that has been taking place between the two countries, but it will happen sooner than most think.

 When they finally meet, the first words out of Trump’s mouth should be, “ok Vlad, what do you want? Here’s what I want! What do you fear? Here’s what I fear, I fear that when it is all said and done, the Dragon will rule your land and mine! What do we do about it”?

Tomorrow:

The Tsar’s “doors”!