U.S STRIKE ON SYRIAN FORCES. A 2016 VERSION OF FAIL SAFE?

Ok, my answer right up front, just in case you don’t have time to read the whole post tonight.

A mistake? Tactically yes.

A mistake strategically? Well, what else should we expect?

Tactically, the miss identification of armored targets inside an air, kill box, should almost be expected in a conflict such as Syria.

Syrian forces recognition processes are primitive compared to the complex battlefields US forces are trained to work within.

Syrian units, armor are not going to have “Identification / Friend / Foe” electronics.

A fighter package at 20,000 ft, or higher, is most often relying on ground support to validate targets.

If  the Rebels / Freedom fighters/ take your pick, whatever group the US is supporting, are not providing this target information, then the odds of striking a location that appears very similar to the “supported” location is more than just a concern. It’s a distinct possibility.

Tactically, a poorly coordinated Kill Box area has a high likelihood of disaster!

At the end of the day, the USAF assets in this event are controlled by the finest Airforce in the world and if mistakes were made, they will be reviewed in mindboggling detail and documented. You can bank on that.

Ok, now for the strategic analysis of this event and that is a far more complex issue than the tactical mistake.

From the very beginning of the Syrian phase of the Middle Eastern Crisis, yes it’s not just about Syria, the US has been more than just “lost” in its policy on the subject. The US has been both wrong and bullheaded!

Now, I will be the first one to admit, the US has had a dismal vision and attitude towards that part of the world for far longer than the rule of the current administration. But, just when you might think I was letting the current administration off the hook, sorry, they have made the issue far worse. The US may have had an archaic approach to the region for decades, but the current administration has been a complete disaster and at just the most critical moment in time! But,

Not only has the Tsar chosen to take the center stage of issues in the region, the US handed that stage over to him long before this latest so called “Ceasefire” was “agreed to”!  

Rumors have flown for some time now over the issue of the “disconnect” between the US Defense Department and the US State Department. Let me stop here just long enough to recognize one of the key figures in the US amateur hour “leadership Team”. John Kerry! I could address his actions for pages, but let me just leave it at this. He’s an idiot…..period!!!!

So, what was this so called ceasefire to be based upon? What was the core issue the Russian’s wanted as we remind ourselves they had and have everything going the Tsar’s way!

Information. Information on the locations and operational actions of the US backed “Rebel / Freedom fighters”.  Information the US department of defense knows would lead to a treasure trove of how the US conducts both overt and covert, clandestine support operations. Simply put, the baseline for the ceasefire was data that would have severely damaging consequences for the US military and the nation as a whole. The level of information required by the Russians was and is so critical to the US, the entire gambit of data is surly conducted at the Top Secret, compartmentalized / SCI / level. Now, you may remember another US Department of Sate senior office who seemed to unconcerned about this level of data……. You know………….the one running for President!

Ok, this is getting too complicated and my mind is running down paths that will make this whole post somewhat boring. Let me stick to what matters here.

The bottom line is, the US Department of Defense and the US Department of State are at odds over what should take place in Syria. Not a new phenomenon, but that is no excuse for what is taking place.

The US President seems more than conflicted on how to solve this debate. Perhaps he is too concentrated on helping his parties’ candidate than on his own administration crumbling at the feet of the Tsar. Remember, he has Kerry to work these matters. Never mind Carter is one of the most technically proficient people to have worn the title of Secretary of Defense in decades.  

The fact of the matter is the US has gone so long without having a working policy for the region, another failed pipedream for Syria is just what the pubic expected!

So, what happened today? What brought about this “mistake” the Whitehouse has already taken a knee on?

Reluctance!

Here is my hunch. The US Department of State informs the US Department of Defense to “ cooperate” with the Russians. The US Department of Defense, being run by true professionals, carries out the order of their Commander in Chief and “works” to some level the Russians. In the process of doing so, the US Defense Department expresses it’s “concerns” on certain issues to their Commander in Chief. The US Commander in Chief, not having an idea of the complexity of the military’s concerns, agrees to let the Department of Defense “figure out what is the correct level of cooperation”.

Why do I believe this is the true? Look at the reaction of the Russians over the past week. What have they been ranting about? “The US is not living up to its commitments for the ceasefire”!

Are the Russians telling the truth? Yes.

Why is the US not “living up to its commitments”? Because those commitments were agreed upon by the US Department of State, not the US Department of Defense, the two agencies that have not been on the same page for the past several years!

One team, one fight? Not lately!

Today was yet another amateur hour event for the US administration when it comes to Syria, but the real bad news is, it’s just what the Tsar was looking for.