SAUDI’S 2030 VISION.
WHAT IS IT AND WILL THE REST OF THE WORLD SUPPORT IT?
Now, before you ask, “what in the world is he talking about
tonight and how did he get to this topic”, let me explain why I believe what I’m
about to talk about is not only important, but I would say critical to finding
a way out of the crisis that is now the Middle East.
Today, I was talking with a young man who lives in Kuwait.
If there is a model for what the future could hold for the whole region, he is
it. Young, 20 years old. In College. Wise enough to know he is at a point in
his life where listening is more important than speaking. He has begun to
understand the value of compromise without compromising those things that are
important to each of us, his values and beliefs. He has ambition, but not a
lust for power and wealth. How I’ve come to know him is not important. The fact
that I believe he is the prototype of what it will take to truly bring social
and economic stability to the region that is important. In short, I am honored
to have such a fine young man as an acquaintance. By the way, I know another
twenty year old that is inspiring. He is my oldest Son. It fills me with optimism
to talk to young men like the two of them pushing forward in different parts of
the world.
My young Kuwaiti friend and I were talking about opportunities
in the region and what was worth paying attention to. The topic of the day was
the Saudi 2030 concept. If you have not heard of it and odds are most of you
have not, I’ve attached a link to news story that address the plan.
If you read this link
and or search the internet, you will end up asking yourself one basic question,
“Why”? What is propelling Saudi to take
what many consider the most dramatic economic transformation plan ever
attempted in the world. Sound dramatic, well, keep searching the web and you will
find several economic experts who categorize the 2030 vison in just that frame
of thought, “dramatic”.
Why? That’s a valid question and as such, let me make an
attempt to explain “why”. Let me start
with asking my own question. Can any nation sustain its relevancy in the world based
upon a single source economy? Can Saudi Arabia be where it is today 100 years
from now, if the nation continues to only revolve around oil?
So, is the 2030 about national survival? For the most part
yes. Does the success of this plan guarantee Saudi’s future? Nothing is
guaranteed in life other than death!
Is there anything more important to good governance than
survival?
Survival! An interesting word. Whose vision of survival
should we use? When everything is going great and those in government are
rewarded by a gratified public, survival means keeping the public “gratified”. If
the main ingredient for maintaining this “gratified” sentiment is a single
source item, in this case oil, and government knows that item is finite in
nature, then what? How do you maintain the “gratified” state? By the way, in
many parts of the modern world, wove together by social media, the word “gratified”
is translated into “stability”! How does a current government keep their society
stable? In the end, there are basically two ways. They can beat them into constant
submission, good luck with that one in the 21st century world of
social media. The second and more logical path, although unfortunately, many governments
chose the first course, is to security, equality, education and most importantly,
economic stability.
Years ago, I had a
conversation with a very wise man on the issue of the Israel, Palestine
conflict. He made one of the most profound statements and it has stuck with me
to this day. “If young men had to get up in the morning to go to a job that
provided a good life for their families, if jobs gave them the chance to have a
family, if hope was based on a salary and not the inflammatory words of old men
or guns, then the conflict would be in a courtroom and not in the streets”!
Yep. The whole point was about stability! Is stability, gratification the
desired outcome of Saudi? Is it not the desire of every nation?
Saudi’s future leadership, one in particular, has developed
a formula for the long-term survival of the nation. Not only is survival a key point of the 2030
plan, but growth. With growth comes stability and with stability comes gratification.
Now that we believe the issue behind this bold vison / plan
is the survival of Saudi and it’s growth as a nation going into the 21st
century, how do the visionary leaders, who came up with the plan, make it become reality?
As the old saying goes, “The Devil is in the details”! What are the “details”?
If you read the complete news release from the Saudi
government, you will notice most of the “details” stay at a very strategic
level. Areas of importance are framed, but working level “details” are
delibertly left out. As you can guess, as soon as many skeptics read the 2030
plan, the first reaction is typical. “ It all sounds great, but how do they really
plan on accomplishing this vison”? The other predictable comment is not far
behind. “Saudi has no capability to make such a massive shift. It has no true
desire to let the government release power in so many different areas”. Skeptics attacked this plan from day one.
Global economic “experts” were questioning the size and magnitude of such an
event. One of the most common reactions was, “it’s only 14 years away”! Is the
outside world skeptical? Yes. Does that mean it cannot happen? As long as the
Saudi leadership doesn’t listen to them, the answer is up to them.
Can it work? Can the 2030 plan actually transform Saudi
Arabia away from an oil based, government controlled economy? Yes. I say yes, because
of one major advantage the worldwide, economic experts forgot to take into
account. What choice does Saudi have? The oil will not last forever. The world
will move away from oil based energy. Technology will move mankind forward. This
plan is not a ship that Saudi may or may not decide to set sail on. The oil
based ship is sinking. It may not sink soon or it may sink suddenly, but it is
sinking. A future leader in Saudi understands this. He has taken the time to
map out an alternative course and that course is based on change, real change.
Change that doesn’t require his nation to compromise its beliefs, but simply to
find hope in a new future.
Hope, Saudi has come up with a plan that at the end of the day
inspires. It calls for out of the box thinking and that thinking starts with
the government providing the example by letting go of traditional issues that have
been under government control.
It will take youth, and determination to make this vison
come to reality. It will not go exactly has planned, no plan ever does. Things
will change and that is where the power of compromise becomes so vital. Others will
see this plan as a threat. Regional nations may see the Saudi plan as the blueprint
and inspire similar plans.
One thing is certain, Saudi is going to spend a great deal
of time and energy and money on attempting to make this vison a reality.
Youthful leadership will be the key.
So you see, my young friend in Kuwait and Saudi are a lot
alike.
Here is the challenge, the West can ether support the
changing Saudi Arabia and thus regain a great deal of the trust that has been
lost in the past eight years. Or, the West can have its economic “experts”
continue to second guess and thus handicap real change in Saudi. As for me, I’m
going to support 2030. I will be monitoring this process carefully for as long
as I can.
At the end of World War I, the West set into motion a roadmap
for the entire region that has lead to disaster. If Saudi is setting sail on a
new course, the odds are many in the region are going to be willing to follow.
Like any new plan, the preparation and the early stages are
key. If vison leads to hope, then hope can lead to gratification and in the end………….stability.
I’ll be watching!
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