MOQTADA AL-SADR….. AN UPDATE!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the reemergence of al-Sadr in Iraq and the question of, “why now”?

Well, it’s Friday and we all know big speeches come on Friday! So, what has Sadr been up to in the past two weeks and what was the message today? 

Same theme, increased threats. That is how I would shape Sadr’s update. Pressure with threats of crowds has now taken the next step. Crowds that he now threatens to turn into dangerous protest that is the real change. Two weeks ago, it was the good old fashion “sit in”, but now, it’s the, ‘there will be trouble’, button he is pushing.

Now, when I last spoke of Sadr, my opinion was he was feeling threatened. His perception of he was being left out of the Shia movements, more specifically the fighting units of Shia the Persians had placed into action against I.S.  I still believe that is his core issue, but I am also more and more convinced he sees his window of opportunity reopened with the changing events in Syria. 

The classic power vacuum! Did the Russian’s create one with the perception, yes, perception, they pulled out of Syria? Did this move by the Tsar set the Persians off balance so much that Sadr believed the timing was right to get back into the Iraqi leadership game? Yes, his words and called for gatherings started just prior to the Russian withdrawal, but he has moved from words to action and I’m not sure he felt the timing was right until he perceived an opportunity with the Iranians.

As a reminder, Sadr is no longer the Persian puppet he once was. I’m one of the folks who never, truly believed he was in the first place. An advantage taker? An opportunist who used the Persians to move his vision of Iraq forward? That’s the mold I have always thought he fit.

So, the update is simple.

Sadr is taking his plan to the next phase and that phase calls for disruptive, angry crowds!

His message?

Iran no longer gets to call the shots in Iraq!

You don’t believe it?

Let’s keep watching as see who ends up being correct.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/03/25/Iraq-s-Sadr-threatens-unrest-if-reforms-blocked.html