THE UKRAINE AND ISLAMIC STATE…VISCOSITY IS THE KEY!

For several months now, these two stories have remained at the top of the media food chart.

Yes, the events in Israel temporarily became the shiny object media crows gazed upon, but the significance of the major two topics allows them to rise right back to the top time and time again.

So, what is the difference?

Why are these two stories more than just news sound bites?

Why do they continue to haunt those Western World Leaders to the point of admitting they “don’t have a strategy at this time”?

The answer is not complex and it’s not truly even debatable.

Last week, I spoke to an issue I’ve visited several time in the past few years.

Resolve!

The loss of “Resolve” stacked on top of a deliberate movement to kill American Exceptionalism.

The crisis in the Ukraine and the Islamic State movement are both perpetuated by the lack of resolve in the West. 

Now, I could talk all day as to how this collapse of world leadership, deliberate collapse, has pushed civilized people to the brink of social breakdown, but that would prevent me from striking at the heart of the issue.

You see, this lack of resolve was not by accident.

It is not the byproduct of a cunning adversary, although, I will admit there are those who were perfectly positioned to exploit the death of resolve.

So what happened?

What triggered this breakdown in world leadership?

Perhaps a perfect Cocktail was the issue?

A Cocktail contrived from a blend of modern Progressive thinking, Socialist philosophies towards economic status and the two very important ingredients, social media and the World Wide Web!

The recognized world leader in times of trouble, the US, in 2009, has a new leader stand up and say to the world, ‘ we should no longer lead…. We should be just another member of the collective’!

What consequences did this change have for the world?

Was the Pandora’s Box opened with untold, unmanageable results?

In my opinion, yes!

I could go on and on about this historical collapse in world leadership, but it would only sound like Bashing and we all know if you don’t agree with DC, you are “Bashing”.

So, in order not to sound like a Basher, let me address what most likely is a far more important point than realizing how this happened.

How do we “fix” this, or is this Humpty Dumpty all over again?

Yesterday, a certain person said to me, “well the President is striking Islamic State Forces”, they actually said ISIL forces not realizing none of them go by that name anymore, “and that shows he is not as reckless as GW was”!

Really?

A great philosopher once said, individuals are smart, but masses are ignorant!

Well, this person proved that theory doesn’t always hold true.

Anyone with the qualifications of watching at least one war movie knows limited air strikes will not change the course of a movement.

In the case of the Islamic State Forces, it may make matters worse; just ask Lebanon!

And how does the world view these “limited strikes”?

Simply put, they are doing more harm than good.

Does the world perceive this as “taking action”?

No.

Does the world see this as a political stunt?

Yes.

Does that anger DC?

Oh ya!

Does it impact the tactics of IS?

Somewhat?

Bottom line, is it doing harm or good?

Most likely it’s accomplishing nothing, with the exception of million dollar flight missions to take about 150 dollar trucks.

To be honest, did these missions alter the actions of the IS forces?

Perhaps, but allowing them to freely maneuver the countryside and head to the next potential target is not a “strategy”… there is no strategy in Iraq or Syria, period!

The Ukraine:

Where in the world is this leading?

What is Europe willing to?

Like the GCC countries, the Europeans understand the US will talk from the front, but watch from the rear.

A Western world that is truly leaderless!

In the Tsar’s wildest dreams, it couldn’t have turned out any better than this.

And now a historically, classic response from Europe!

A one week ultimatum!

Do any of them believe this will work?

No.

So why did they do it?

Desperation.

They are desperate to show their societies some level of….. You guessed it….. RESOLVE!

We will see the Tsar’s response over the next few days and I’m willing to bet, it will not be good news for Europe.

Fix:

Is there one?

How does the West restore “Resolve” in a world pushing them to the edge?

Oh by the way, I’ll leave the Dragon out of this conversation!

Well; the buzz word of 2008 and 2009 may be the key!

Change!

I remember the day Ronald Reagan won the elections in the US.

I remember people saying, pride was returning to the US.

I remember the Iranian suddenly figuring out a way to end the Hostage Crisis.

I remember Ronald Reagan standing in Germany and saying, “tear down this wall”!

I remember people saying, “ he is a madman and is pushing the world to the edge of nuclear war”!

I remember the reemergence of “RESOLVE”!

Was it dangerous?

Yes.

Was it even reckless?

Perhaps.

Did the US or the West have a choice?

NO!

A political system that truly is functional has a pattern of cyclic elections.

Having said this, here is my warning.

It is a law of physics that all things that depend on viscosity can reach a point of failure!

Modern society, modern economic networks, world wide networks, depend on viscosity!

That viscosity is founded in human belief.

The belief that things will be ok, or that bad times will go away.

In a world of social media and constant communications that viscosity comes under attack every day.

The slipping point if reached, cannot be saved by one election.

The Western world must hope for resolve to return.

If must hold on until the 2016 elections in the only country able to lead the alliance back to stability.

If this return of resolve doesn’t take place in 2016, if viscosity fails before that, then some other force will have to save the economic engine of the West!

Who has a vital interest in that engine?

Ah yes…. The Dragon!

US, ‘ NO STRATEGY FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE’.. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Was it just an outburst of honesty yesterday?

Was it an example of not being prepared?

Was it a “slip of the tongue”?

Was it a feint… a trick… .a ploy?

Only a chosen few will really know, but I can tell you what it was to the rest of the world.

Another gigantic perception event!

It didn’t take the world media thirty minutes to pounce on the comment by the US President.

As a matter of fact, as I was watching him give the speech, I told the person next to me, “that won’t take long”!

Back.

Back to the reality of world media, social media and 24/7/365, global coverage and how governance simply cannot come to terms with how to shape their messages.

So, now this morning in DC, the administration is running one main effort and that effort is not building a “Strategy” for IS.

It’s “damage control”!!!

Here is the problem with “damage control” in the world of social media.

It takes a great deal of effort, time and money, to fix Administration perception issues.

The reality is, they often don’t get ‘fixed”!

So, as the US administration runs damage control today, let me take a shot at how  this statement was perceived in the Region.

GCC:

“Uncommitted”, and uncommitted only strengthens their internal belief that US is no longer able or willing to control the region….as if it ever was!!!!

Islamic State Leadership:

No resolve! 

“The West / US / has no stomach for fighting us”.

Once again the “redline” theory goes out the window.

Iran:

“Got them right where we want them…. Still desperate for a nuclear ‘deal’, and willing to do our dirty work against a force we helped create… the Islamic Sate”!

The Tsar:

“ I’m not sure what they are doing and nether or they, so I’m pushing forward with my ‘Master Plan…. Keep sending the vacationing troops to the Ukraine”!!!!

Egypt’s Sisi:

“What?  They want our help again?  Hell, we are still trying to control the Hamas / Israeli issue and the US, who didn’t support me, wants me in another ‘coalition’? Tell them we are a little tied up right now, but we will get back with them soon”!

Turkey’s Egodan:

“ Let me see if I understand this correctly.  You support the Kurds. You won’t attack Assad. Now you are going to unwillingly  help Assad??????  What part of this am I supposed to agree with and oh by the way…..what’s in it for me”?

So, you see………… a slip of the tongue… a misguided statement in the world of live coverage and the entire concept of what is taking place changes.

And as for the United States Department of State…….” This is the story of a sailing ship… and a three hour tour… a three hour tour”….. ( Insert theme song here).

UKRAINE AND THE VACATIONING RUSSIAN MILITARY!

Once again, I have to admit my fascination with the Tsar…..Putin!!!!!

I have followed this man’s path for years and for just about the same amount of time, I’ve stated he is the most dangerous man alive and yes, in my book, the most interesting one as well.

But today, well let’s just say,  today it all came to a whole different level!

 Alexander Zakharchenko, a  Pro Russian Force’s Leader, statement was completely over the top!

He looked into the camera, never flinched and stated the Russian forces fighting alongside his forces were on “leave” from the Russian military!!!!!

Now, when I watched this segment on BBC today, I had to think for a minute.

Did he just say what I think he just said?

Leave?

Really?

That’s the best you can come up with?

Leave status?

With their Tanks and Armored Vehicles?

Now, it could be this guy was some local garrison idiot prior to the conflict and truly his professional military training was lacking; for now intelligent Officer of a modern day military could make such a mindboggling statement.

Then it struck me.

Why was this statement even made?

Of all the detailed planning the Russian forces must have developed for a complex campaign in the Ukraine, how in the world would this take place?

So, at the point of openly being unable to deny Russian forces and equipment on the ground in Ukraine, the answer is, “we are on leave”???????

I had to think for a few minutes and then the only possible conclusion one could come to popped into my head.

The Tsar doesn’t care!!!!!

The conversation must have been something like this; “ Sir, we need to think about our explanation for being seen in the area once we can no longer hide the fact”!

The Tsar; “who cares….. Whomever gets cornered by the media, just have them say something. By that time, it’s too late”!!!!

So, that’s it!

The Tsar doesn’t care what this Pro Russian Rebel leader states to the media.

He doesn’t care what media outlet covers the story or what the reaction is.

The fact is Russian Forces are now in the Ukraine and that is it!

Boldness?

This is beyond boldness!

This is a real indicator of just what the Tsar thinks of Western / European opinions and reactions.

Is this simply outrageous or is this more?

Does this lack of guidance to the Pro Russian forces indicate a far more important change?

Historically, when nations no longer “respect” their enemy’s capabilities and or resolve, a topic I spoke to yesterday, disaster soon follows!

So the Tsar wakes up to his morning briefing and in that briefing he is told of the “Leave” story from a Rebel Leader.

He laughs and then gets briefed on the progress of the event.

What if he woke up to his morning briefing and was told that the United States Army was on the ground in Syria or Lebanon or Iran.

Then, the Tsar then is shown a media story where a pro Rebel leader in Syria states, “the US forces that are here are volunteers or are on LEAVE”!!!

Insult!

Outrageous!

“Who the hell does he think he is… sending in his military and then telling the world they are on ‘leave’?

You see, this is exactly what the Tsar just did.

This was not just the next phase in Operation Ukraine.

This was a slap in the face to the West / US / NATO!

How it is the Tsar could be so bold as to allow such a stunning statement to be made?

Once again, it’s simple.

He doesn’t care.

He sees no “Resolve”!

The crisis that is Ukraine is much larger than Ukraine.

The worldwide crisis is the loss of resolve.

That simple word has been the glue that has held shut the gates of Hell for years!

Those gates are springing wide open, not just in the Ukraine, but in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Resolve!

Someone needs to find it and quick, but then again, someone may have already done so!

The Tsar!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28967526

ALAWITES… AND THE BOOGIEMAN .. IS IT TIME FOR A NEW SUPERHERO?

This story paints a very ominous picture for Syria,  but it cannot be fully understood without realizing the most important fact that will insure the outcome the Alawites fear.

Over the course of the past thirty years, the concept of warfare in Western Society has changed.

“kill the bad ‘guy’, but not the person next to him.

“Fight our enemies, but don’t lose any of our troops”.

“Destroy the second floor of the building, but don’t disrupt the power or water to the people on the first floor”.

Is my sarcasm over the top?

Perhaps, but my point cannot be disputed.

The West / US / has adopted an unrealistic vision of modern warfare.

Yes technology has made many things possible, but it has not destroyed the ability of our enemies to be ruthless, committed and simply more willing to fight than we are.

We chose, and it is our choice, to destroy 100 dollar trucks with three guys armed with rifles with a 300K dollar missile.

We do not chose to fight this truck with an armored vehicle or dismounted infantry or even Special Forces!

Our version of warfare is based on casualty aversion, public opinion and cost; unless that cost is associated with large companies making Billions from the conflict.

So, why is it the US administration and other Western Leaders, note… not all, are sounding the alarm bell on Islamic State Forces movements?

Why did the two most senior military leaders of the most powerful military in world warn the US public of the dangers of IS forces?

And why did the current Administration Officials quickly respond to the media that this “threat” may not be as bad as the impressions that were given?

Why is this message so confusing?

Resolve!

That is the reason.

The most powerful nation in the world doesn’t have the “resolve” to face a problem that might be the largest threat to society, or it may not be!

Should the West / US / put “boots on the ground” in the region to destroy the Islamic State movement?

It depends.

Is the movement capable of altering the entire region?

Is it capable of severely impacting the daily lives of the West?

What price is the West willing to pay to solve this issue?

What is the proper way to defeat this movement?

I’ve said this before and I will say it again.

The Islamic State movement has and continues to grow into “cult” status!

Young men flock to it for one basic reason; what alternative do they have?

For over ten years, the West truly believed the way to destroy AQ, remember them, was with precision munitions.

Even a precision strike by elite forces took out Osama.

Are we safer?

Is the Radical Islamic threat over?

Is it worse?

The Alawite people of Tartous people are facing the same issue I spoke of back in June of this year.

Like the Iraqi forces that abandoned their post, they see movement in the dark.

They hear sounds as paranoia grips their chest.

How many airstrikes will it take to save Tartous when the Boogeyman steps from the shadows?

The screams will be heard from Aleppo and Homs and those screams will empty the streets of Tartous.

The World War I disaster created in the Middle East has perhaps bread its ultimate villain.

Are there any Superheroes left?

Perhaps not in the West.

It may be time to look to the East!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/08/syria-jihadist-threat-homs.html

HAMAS AND ISRAEL AND THE BLIND DOG BONE STORY.  

For over a week now, the story-line has been the so called, War of Attrition, and who’s trying to win it.

Is it the Israeli concept to wear down the support of Hamas inside of Gaza?

Is the plan to drive a wedge between Fatah, Abbas and Hamas?

Does Hamas and its supporters believe two straight months of running for shelters is breaking the back of public support in Israel?

Does the execution, at the same time as the actions of the Islamic State, of so called “informers” damage Hamas’ support in Gaza?

Does someone think that Hamas will eventually run out of rockets?

So, what is really taking place here?

Is this a “War of Attrition” or is it more a matter of “Battle of Wills”?

Who will give in first?

In order to come close to a possible answer, we must look at the cost involved to each side.

Hamas:

Where do the young, frustrated fighters, who have no intention of reaching out to Israel, go if Hamas drops to Its knees?

Answer……… Islamic State?

Perhaps give it’s cult like draw in the region.

How does Hamas maintain control of the wealth it makes form Gaza, for you see, Gaza is nothing more than a business to the leaders of Hamas.

Simply put, what is left for Hamas if they “give in”?

Abbas and Fatah regain control of Gaza and Hama’s status in the region is gone.

Israel:

If you believe the media headlines, the past few days have been politically disastrous for Netanyahu!

Could he win the Battle and lose the Political War?

Are the people of Southern Israel tired of hiding in shelters?

Are they wondering why the IDF just doesn’t go into Gaza and stop the attacks?

Is Western support for resupply of advanced weapons impacting the ability of the IDF to continue such a War of Attrition?

Simply put, are the people of Israel wondering, “when is this going to end…..why doesn’t Netanyahu strike to end this?

Ok, it’s obvious that both sides are locked into this conflict and both sides have no desire to be seen as the loser!

Hamas truly has nothing to lose by fighting on, unless you count the support and blood of the people in Gaza.

Israel cannot be 0-3 over the past five years when dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah.

So, what is the outcome?

Where does all of this end?

Honestly, Netanyahu  is already well down the road of once again losing the perception battle.

Hamas may be killing their own people in the streets of Gaza, but in the region, they still wear the title of ‘underdog”!

They are still seen in many parts of the world as suffering at the hands of a far superior military backed by the “West”!

Here is the most important part and the easily the most dangerous part of the Hamas mindset.

Israel doesn’t have the resolve to occupy Gaza!

The price is too great compared to what the nation of Israel is currently enduring.

Hamas believes this to the point of fault and because of that, they simply will not stop lobbing small rockets into Israel.

No one understands this more than Netanyahu!

To completely invade Gaza would stress his support with the US beyond his control.

In his mind, his inability to crush Hamas is the fault of the US.

And yes; Hamas understands this.

So, you see, they are both helplessly locked in a conflict that neither can afford to stop.

What they both need is simplistically obvious.

They both need Sisi, or at least they thought they did.

Could it be that even the advantage of Sisi has passed?

So, in the long run, and old saying will come true.

“Even a Blind Dog finds a bone”!

After thousands of aimless rockets land in Israel, one will hit an emotional target.

One will get the headlines Netanyahu cannot ignore.

At that moment in time, the move into Gaza will take place!

Gaza will fall and so will any hope of peace for in will walk the Islamic State and the Cult that follows them.

Someone give Sisi whatever he wants.

He holds the cards, maybe!

UNITED STATES READY TO STRIKE IN SYRIA? DÉJÀ VU  ALL OVER AGAIN.

So, the US is ready to “strike” Islamic State forces in Syria now?

“If we see plotting against American, we see the threat to the US emanating from anywhere, we stand ready to take action against that threat”!!!!

Let me ask a simple question.

Who was that statement for?

As it all too often the case, media statements are little more than have baked “messages” to someone in a feeble attempt to convince them of something.

Let me get right to the barebones of this comment.

The US intelligence community sees “plotting” every day of the year.

If the world was to take Mr. Foley’s words true faith, the US would need a much larger Air Force!

Was the US administration taking a pounding in the eyes of the US “voting” populace?

You bet.

Did it launch a quick knee jerk reaction to this beating in the media?

Yep.

Has it now locked itself into a cycle of, “why not this time”?

Yep.

So, does yet another version of, “we really….really…mean it” have an bit to it?

No.

Does that almost force the US administration into taking further action?

Probably.

If anyone wakes up in the morning and see CNN and or MSNBC foaming at the mouth over “air strikes in Syria”, don’t be alarmed as I assure you the Islamic State forces won’t be.

But, just by chance, let’s play my favorite game;  “what if”.

What if:

The US decides to launch airstrikes inside of Syria?

How is this mission coordinated with the Genocidal leader is named Assad.

 The same Assad the US was prepared to bomb less than a year ago!

What if:

If this mission really is executed, how would  the air defense system of Assad’s forces be dealt with?

Would the US take them out prior to the missions?

Would the US “coordinate with Assad?

How would that look?

What if:

Perhaps the US would not deal with Assad, but with his Master in Tehran?

How would that look?

How would that look through, let’s say, the eyes of the GCC members?

It’s easy to see the concept of striking in Syria sounds like Tough Guy talk, but when it comes from a country whose Tough Guy track record is just this side of laughable, then what has really been accomplished?

In reality, this rhetoric posturing is just one more step into the minefield called the Middle East; a minefield the US is walking in nearly blind.

Oh, one last parting comment for today.

In the not so distant past, great nations like the US made difficult decisions and executed without giving the enemy an idea of what was coming.

When you tell someone, “ we may come after you and me may come after your key leaders in Syria”, you are knowingly allowing them to alter the outcome of your actions.

The current US administration is more than capable of taking covert actions and it has a track record of doing so.

And that is why I have to wonder, why tell the world you are thinking of taking action in Syria?

Who is that message for?

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nowsyrialatestnews/561189-us-ready-to-take-action-in-syria-if-americans-threatened

CONVOYS AND THE INFAMOUS  DOUBLE DOG DARE!!!!

Yesterday, the United States two senior military leaders painted a chilling picture of what they consider the most dangerous threat to the United States and the West in, “years”, with one of them warning, “get ready”!

So is that the truth?

Is the Islamic State the most dangerous thing out there?

A few days ago, a Chinese fighter intercepted a US intelligence aircraft.

Does everyone remember the last that happened?

Out of the ordinary?

Is anything “ordinary anymore?

Oh!

Side note:

I find it interesting the two most powerful military leaders in the world give a combined briefing on the “Most dangerous event in years” to the American people and while they are doing this, their Boss is playing golf… A dire message with the wrong backdrop.

As the media chatter was still swirling around about the announcement from the US Department of Defense, the Tsar made his next move on the chessboard he calls Europe.

When this convoy issue first popped up, I made it very clear what the Tsar was going to do.

With all the talk of arms and troops somehow hidden in this convoy, it was fairly obvious this was not what was taking place.

What we all witnessed was the Tsar executing the plan perfectly.

Form a Humanitarian aid convey in Moscow that all the Russian citizens could see.

Drive it slowly towards the border and then stop and let it be inspected.

Realize the paranoia in the Ukrainian capital and in Europe will slow the process.

Declare the people cannot wait any longer and cross the border.

Who looks “compassionate” here?

What is the opinion of the Russian people; the people who support the Tsar to the hilt?

But, what is the real message here?

I will tell you what the real message is;  “shoot at my people…… I dare you”!!!!!

Once again, the Tsar not only calls the bluff of the Ukrainian government, but that of the West in general.

Back to my point I’ve made time and time again.

What is the West going to do?

More sanctions?

More of, “we are really….really mad this time”!!!!

So, once again  I ask the question.

What is the most dangerous event taking place in the world today?

Oh, and one last question.

I wonder if the Tsar plays Golf!!!!

For my European readers.. pass this one around please... :) 

HEZBOLLAH’S…. PLAYING THE WEST LIKE A STRADIVARIUS.

It’s no secret what Iran is attempting to accomplish with West / US and it’s even more obvious the West is going along with this deception.

What deception am I referring to?

The deception that the battle for the destruction of the Islamic State forces is a common goal of both the Persians and the West / US.

Article upon article is being put to pen on a daily bases addressing the issue of the US doing the bidding of Iran and or Assad in Syria.

One month the US is demanding Assad’s forces be attacked and the next thing we know, the US military is fighting to destroy the force set to destroy Assad.

US aircraft attack targets in Iraq at the same time Iranian forces are attacking them with barrel bombs and Special Operation Forces.

Abadi receives the endorsement of the US as he is taking orders on the phone from the Commander of Iranian Special Forces, Suleimani, who some say handpicked Abadi for the job in Iraq!

So, now enters the story of Hezbollah “condemning” the beheading of Mr. Foley!

What we are witnessing here is a very skillfully designed and executed public information campaign.

A campaign that paints a picture of ‘we have a common enemy’ and “we” must stop them.

For those who are moving beyond being paranoid of where the West is going with Iran, insert the GCC here, this story only adds fuel to the fire.

Every day, the West / US / seems to do something else that gives our old, and unfortunately I think they are “old”, Allies the impression we have “moved away”.

Now, we have Hezbollah…yes I said Hezbollah….making statements like  the West and them are on the same team!

Amazing, and even more amazing that the West continues to go along with the game.

But not only does this masterfully written plan attempt to drive a wedge between the West and the GCC, it doesn’t miss the opportunity to leverage the deepening divide between the US and Israel.

Notice the flow of this story.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/561049-hezbollah-condemns-us-journalists-beheading

Pay attention to the linkage implied between the “Terrorist” known as the Islamic State and the “Terrorist” known as Israel.

Over that past year, I’ve addressed the issue of Hezbollah’s paranoia over the power of the Islamic State forces and the threat they represent to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It should come as no surprise the above mentioned storyline fits that same pattern.

Hezbollah would love nothing more than to witness US forces attacking IS groups in Syria, especially along the Lebanese border.

Sadly, it is also no surprise if the West / US / continues to be manipulated by Iran all for the sake of a nuclear “deal”.

PAKISTAN.... SAME OLD GAME. NEW ARENA.

Does the region need any more bad news?

No.

Could the “news” get much worse?

Believe it or not, the answer is yes and here is how.

Imran Khan is far from a Radial Islamic Fundamentalist.

So, why is it dangerous for a movement like his to march on the government of Pakistan?

How did the events in the early days of the “Arab Spring….Tunisian Virus”.. yes I still use that name……start?

Peaceful protest in the streets of Cairo by moderate, youthful men and women.

What has been the history of prolonged protest in the region?

Over reaction by paranoid governments…..street violence and massive media coverage.

And who is cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri?

Well, I will tell you what he is; he is wildly popular with the youth of Pakistan.

Now, does he have ties to the real power in Pakistan, the military?

Probably, but I’m willing to bet he is not under the total control of the military.

So, is this protest bad news, if so, why?

Back to what I stated earlier.

What does the collapse of the current government result in?

It’s not like it has not happened before in Pakistan, but times are different now.

The region is far more fragile and social media is a weapon that is uncontrollable.

Marching and protesting and chanting seems to be the new world social pastime.

Is Pakistan the latest arena for this new game?  

 A DAM IN IRAQ AND EERILY FAMILIAR  TUNE 

Wow. A great victory for the forces of “good”….right?

Kurdish forces and Iraqi troops fighting side by side supported by US air power?

Does this sound like a song we have heard time and time again over the past ten years…you know.. the Iraqi… “Victory” song! 

Now, could the US President use any level of good news right about now?

You bet, even if he has to make it up.

Ok, about this dam.

Let’s take a look at what was achieved here.

Did the Islamic State forces really need the dam?

When they took the dam from the Kurds, did they intend to utilize it for economic growth in their newly won land?

No.

Did they intend to blow it and bring the government of Iraq to it’s knees?

Well, if they did, they would have accomplished just that.

The fact of the matter is, they didn’t blow the dam and we need to ask why?

So, let me ask one simple question.

Did the simple act of taking the dam and routing the fearless Kurd fighters give them credibility?

Absolutely.

So, did holding the dam give them any level of a victory?

What was more important in this event; the taking of the dam or the shock of being able to soundly defeat the Kurd fighters?

I know the answer.

So, is this it?

Are the Islamic State Forces on the run now?

Is the US President right?

Even he knows the answer.

“ A major step forward”????

Really???

Ask the FSA forces in Aleppo that question.

And what about Mr. al-Abadi?

Well, he would comment, but he is on the phone right now…taking orders from his Persian Bosses.

One last note.

What say the Ottomans?

Arms for the Kurds?

Kurdistan with US support?

Let’s see how that plays out.

NASRALLAH’S MOST RECENT SPEECH… FASCINATING!

Now, I've read just about every speech Nasrallah has given in open forum, but I must admit this one is far…far different that anything he has produced to date!

For over a year now, I've addressed the issue that truly worries Hezbollah’s leadership; Islamic State’s juggernaut throughout the region!

Has Nasrallah been concerned with the perception battle he’s been involved in with his own base?

Yes.

Has it been hard for him to convince the families of his fighters that their men must die in Syria and they are not going to their grave for the sake of the Persians?

Yes.

Has he battled the statements of not staying home to protect their “own” land from the IS forces?

Yes.

Is he worried the Islamic Forces are reaching the point of moving into Lebanon?

Oh yes…. And that is the core issue of today’s speech.

Just imagine the Islamic State leaders listening to this speech; this plea for that is exactly what it was!

Nasrallah is known for his fire and brimstone threats always pointed towards the never ending enemy of Israel.

Israel?

The speech today was in “celebration” of the 2006 battle with whom?

Israel?

Where was the mention of Israel, the Great Enemy of Hezbollah?

Two themes today.

1.  ‘People of Lebanon….pull together, before it’s too late’.
2. ‘ If we leave Syria, the enemy, IS, will be at our front door…on our streets”!

Staggering!

Simply staggering!

Does it worry Nasrallah Hariri has come home to Lebanon?

Yes.

Did he mention that fact today?

No.

What was the one strategic message the US never truly convinced the American people of?

If you fight your enemy on foreign soil, they less likely to fight you on yours!

The US leadership may have missed the opportunity to drive this message home, but I think Nasrallah is going to give it a much better shot.

So, just how worried is Hezbollah?

Who knows what dangers Lebanon faces better than Hezbollah?

No talk of Israel.

No talk of Hariri.

If we witness Nasrallah reaching out to Hariri, it will be time to take the battle to the forces of the Islamic State and I mean everyone!

Nobody understands this better than Sisi and the IDF.

Strange, mindboggling “alliances” are being made and still the Islamic State forces move forward!

Fascinating!

MALIKI QUITS AND A QUICK, WORTHLESS, VICTORY LAP FOR THE WEST!

Question.

Who did Maliki report to?

Answer.

The Persians.

Question.

Who informed him it was time to “go”?

Answer.

The Persians.

Question.

Who does al-Abadi truly report to?

Answer.

Yep….. The Persians.

Question.

Will the West / US / spend the next year or more saying, “we can work with him”?

Answer.

Yes…. The same answer the West gave for Maliki for the past several years.

Question.

Will Maliki’s stepping down really  solve anything?

Answer.

Only if you are looking to convince someone progress is being made.

Question.

What does this announcement mean to the Eye Doctor; Assad?

Answer.

He is probably changing his paints as I type this.

Question.

Will the West / US / try to take this event for a quick “victory lap”?

Answer.

Of course and that will make them look all the more amateurish in the months to come.

And finally;

Question.

Will this stunt change anything about the advancement of the Islamic State Forces?

Answer.

Good grief….do I need to answer that one?

THE ISLAMIC STATE AND THE DIVISION OF BERLIN.

With all the attention be given to the US actions in Northern Iraq, it’s easy to once again overlook the area everyone seems very accustom to “overlooking”.

Syria.

Let me make this simple.

The Islamic State forces are set to do what Assad forces have been incapable of accomplishing.

The capture of Aleppo!

FSA forces know what they are facing and they also know the odds of anyone coming to their aid.

It’s very possible we are about to see history repeat itself.

At the end of WWII, the greatest challenge was to see who would grab what was left of Germany; the Russians or the Western forces.

It was a race that nearly lead to the clash of forces who had fought the same enemy for nearly five years.

Were the two sides “friends”?

Not really.

Did they have a common goal?

Yes. The destruction of Nazi Germany.

Was there concern over who would own what part of the country?

Yes.

Is the same thing taking place in Syria?

Yes.

How did it end for the West and Russia?

How will it end for the forces supporting Assad and the forces opposed to the IS forces?

Having said all of that, here is the even more confusing point.

At the end of WWII, who was on who’s side was a clear cut story.

Does that hold true for Syria?

Who is on Assad’s side?

Who is fighting IS forces?

Both excellent questions with muddy answers at best.

So, what happens if Aleppo falls to the IS forces?

Does the US airpower strike IS forces in Syria?

No.

Does the supporters of Assad commit more troops to save Assad?

No.

Does Assad lose Aleppo for good?

Yes.

Does Aleppo become just another city in the grasp of the IS movement?

Yes.

Do the young fighters of FSA jump ship and fight with the IS forces and bring all the arms they have with them; arms the “West” and “others” have provided them?

Yes.

So, why did I know this was going to happen?

Don’t think for a minute I’m the only one that figured this out.

The IS forces captured a great deal of conventional military equipment from the Iraq military that ran away.

This lead to the IS forces thinking they could utilize this equipment in a conventional combatant style, thus abandoning what has worked for them for several years; unconventional conflict.

They wondered if and where the line would be drawn and they got their answer.

Risk to US members in Iraq.

How long do anyone think it will take to return to what has worked for them and move the conventional equipment to a place the US forces will not strike it?

Hint.

They already have.

Remember…. The events of last week were a test of limits and the test is over.

So, where does that conventional equipment move to?

The fall of Aleppo may provide us our answer.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/fighters-capture-towns-syria-north-2014813134018291760.html

HUMANITARIAN AID AND RUSSIAN THEATRE

Ok, if you couldn't tell from the title of this post, my sarcasm light is on.

It’s very apparent Western Intelligence has convinced its leaders there is something to this Humanitarian convoy.

Was it based on imagery of the tucks being loaded?

Was it based on signals intelligence collected on the units near the border?

The bottom line is something has been shown to Western Leaders and NATO Commanders that has led to several days of repeated, “we are warning you”.

Oh by the way, good luck with that “theme” when it comes to the Tsar!

What’s the result this time…..more sanctions?

Now, Russian intelligence knows full well loading almost 300 trucks with “aid” cannot go unnoticed and watching were the trucks came from, where they were painted and who is driving them…probably on their cell phones the whole way…. is impossible to cover up.

Knowing this, what are the Russian really up to?

Hiding an Invasion Taskforce in White Trucks?

No.

Painting a picture of a compassionate Tsar just trying to help the poor civilians in Eastern Ukraine?

Yes, but who is the picture for?

The West?

No.

The Russian people?

Yep!

In order to justify to your own people what you are about to do, you need to set the stage.

So this aid convoy gets denied at the border.

Shots are fired.

Innocent “civilians” supporting the convoy are killed.

Well, that would call for an armed escort and the ability to protect the relief mission heading to those poor civilians.

Sound outrageous?

If you said yes, then you don’t know the Tsar.

Is this whole thing a well designed  plan to sell the Russian people?

In my opinion, yes.

Will the West buy it?

Why do you think the warnings are being given?

Will it work?

We are about to find out.

MALIKI AND THE EVER CONFUSING CARD GAME CALLED THE MIDDLE EAST

Ok, once again, it’s time for a quick sanity check.

Arms to the Kurds…. The Kurds we abandoned at the end of Desert Storm.. Remember?

Arms to the Kurds…. The Enemy of our NATO member ….Turkey… you know… the new Sultans’ base for supporting the Islamic State forces?

Attacks on the Islamic State forces.. You know.. the same forces Assad is fighting to keep Syria…. Supporting Assad???? Yep that’s how some in the region see it!

Supporting the replacement for Maliki.. the Maliki the West supported and takes orders from Iran… ya… that Maliki.

Attacking the Islamic State forces trying to topple Maliki?

Forget getting a scorecard…. Just get a bottle… place it on the table and spin it……

That is the process taking place in the US Department of State right now.

And right in the middle of all of this, Sisi meets with the Tsar!

I can just imagine how that conversation went.

Remember; Maliki’s steam is in Tehran and the link between Moscow and Tehran is far more complex than many realize.

Why would the Tsar want anything to go the way the West would like it right now?

3 Billion in military aid is a strong bait for the Tsar to hang in front of Sisi.

Yes folks………… the backroom card deals are becoming more and more complex and I have to wonder who on the Western team is up to the siting at the table?

Next move….. My bet it belongs to Maliki!

EGYPT AND LEBANON… A MOVE  THAT WILL GO UNNOTICED

With all that is going on in the region right now, it’s easy to miss the fact that Hariri has returned to Lebanon.

It’s just as easy to overlook the strategic importance of this pledge by Egypt to Lebanon.

Let me take a minute and show how these two seemingly unrelated events represent a very important change.

Oh by the way; I’ve come to the realization that one of the fasted growth industries out there right now is the business of standing up “Institutes”.

The Institute for this…. The Organization of that…. The Charter of the Institute for the Organization…and so on….and so on…. And so on……good grief!

If  you have an opinion of the Middle East or any other hot topic on the worldwide media scene, just wait for one of the thousands of “Institutes” to hire you so you can babble on TV!

Ok; back to what I was talking about.

Hariri?

Does anyone remember who he is?

Who was his Father?

Who murdered his Father in a huge car bomb?

What event started the most drawn out United Nations Court Case in the world?

Well, let me keep in simple.

Hariri is hatted by Hezbollah and thus the Persians!

Why?

Simple; he, like his Father, believed and believes in a peaceful Lebanon that is a economic hub for the region.

In Tehran, that is pure heresy, thus they blew up his Father in 2005!

Oh ya, that was the event that lead to Syria’s proxy army, proxy for Iran, being told to leave Lebanon and that was the beginning of the end for the Assad rule!

Why was Hariri out of country for so long?

Ask the Hezbollah killers who have been and are still waiting for the order to kill him.

So, why did he come home now?

Simply put, it’s time!

It’s time for Lebanon to keep from sliding into the abyss of Sectarian War; a war they are on the very edge of being consumed by.

Islamic State forces combat operations last week on Lebanese land was the greatest warning sign yet of the pending disaster awaiting Lebanon.

And what of the Lebanese government’s feelings of him coming home?

Ask yourself one question; who is the President of Lebanon?

Or better yet.

Who is the net President of Lebanon?

Deadlock in the flavor of the day in Lebanon and Politicians almost always move only when they think the timing is right.

Is this the only reason Hariri decided now is the time to return?

Nope!

Ah, then you may ask; “what else”?

Did Hariri wake up late last week and say to himself, “I think I will fly back into Lebanon and see if Hezbollah can finally blow me up”?

Before anyone in the situation that Hariri finds himself in, decides to “move”, one thing must be true.

You must have support!

So, who is Hariri’s support?

Ah yes; the second part of my post today!

Egypt!

As an old retired FBI friend of mine loves to say, “There are no coincidences”

I know, typical of Hoover’s troops!

When Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon made the announcement of “support” to Lebanon, does anyone truly believe Hariri didn’t know this was coming?

Now, take note in what was said by Egypt;  “ All possible Aid”!!!

In a part of the world where reading between the lines is an art, everyone should read that line!

Why would Egypt take this stance the very week Hariri returns to Lebanon?

Was it part of a “Plan”?

You bet!

Who’s in on it?

The West?

Don’t count on that one!

These guys are playing Chess and the West / US / is playing reactionary Checkers!

Back to the “why” of the Egyptian move.

What is important to Egypt about Hariri’s return to Lebanon?

Simply put, what’s in it for Egypt?

What is Hariri at his core value?

A business based leader who believes in the separation of religion and government.

Is he more like Sisi than other potential leaders in Lebanon?

Yes.

Does he have the “name” to win the Presidential elections?

Yes.

Does helping Lebanon remain stable indicate to the world Sisi is a real regional leader?

Yes.

Is Sisi the one that is being counted on to bring the Israeli, Hamas conflict to an end?

Yes; with the caveat that Hamas is destroyed when it’s all over…. From Sisi’s viewpoint!

What is the real threat to Lebanon?

The Islamic State movement?

Who has been able to stop the Islamic state forces?

Nobody.

What will it take to stop them?

A modern military.

Does Egypt have such a thing?

Far better than any other that has gone up against the IS.

Egypt is strapped for cash, so who will help them if needed.

Inter the Saudis!

Ok, in the big scheme of things, what are these two events really all about?

Who wants to be seen as the real “go to” country in the Middle East?

Egypt!

Who is the major competition for this title?

The Ottomans.

The Persians.

In Turkey this week, the election of their next Dictator is underway.

While he is distracted with that event, what better time for Sisi to make his mark on the region?

Everything about international politics revolves around timing!

The time was right for Hariri and the time was right for Sisi.

Let’s see where this goes and let’s watch how it is received by the Persians and the new Sultan of Turkey!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/559566-egypt-ready-to-help-lebanese-army