UKRAINE ... RUSSIA CONFLICT AND SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE! 

A few days ago, I mentioned the topic of sabotage and how the Russian may have executed a plan to limit the ability of the Ukrainian military to respond.

If we assume one phase of the Russian actions was to pull key  members of the Ukrainian military away from the new government, then should assume that was not the only phase in the concept of limiting their enemy.

The facts dictate the Ukrainian military was flatfooted as this crisis got underway, but how is it the Russian forces were able to surround key critical infrastructure?

Could it be the Ukrainian military is separated from it's ammunition?  

Could it be some level of cyber activitiy has limited the Ukranian military from being able to respond?

How could there not be cyber activity taking place after what the world witnessed the Russians execute against Georgia?

All of this conjecture leads to one dominant question?

What are the current capabilities of the Ukrainian military?

Does the new government know?

Do they have military leaders who can tell them and do they trust them?

Yes, it would be futile to launch a kinetic action against the Russian forces, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Three days ago, the Ukrainian government, at least the one the West recognizes, declared a full mobilization?

Let me tell you that takes time, even for a country that has a detailed plan for doing so.

It might be a wise political move, one I don't think the Russians were very impressed with, but what does it really mean?

How soon before such a force could be made into a  Combined Combat capable operation?

Hint, it would take the US months at best!!!

Now, I've already covered my opinion of how events in the Crimea might take place and the Tatars are the key to that operation given their location behind the newly established lines.... oh by the way.. that is an issue the Russian will not have overlooked as well.

Lets look at this issue of a potential kinetic fight between the Russians and the new government of Ukraine from another angle.

Why go on the Offensive, knowing the rule of war states a 4 to 1 advantage for the defender?

Why not wait for the Tatars supported by "others" to start an asymmetric campaign in the Crimea and simply watch how the Tsar and his troops respond.

If Russian forces move into Eastern or Ukraine, then those Russian forces, who are not there according to the Russian government, have two fronts to concentrate on!

Look, the bottom line is this.

It would be a tragic mistake for the Ukrainian forces to go on the offensive!

They are far better off letting the Russians make the first move and fighting from a position of defense.

Now, I know this and you can bet the Russians understand this, so the next question becomes, what have the Russians planned to counter such a strategy?

If the Tsar truly plans on making a move into the mainland of the Ukraine, then he will need a dramatic "event" to justify his actions.

What would that event be?

You can bet they have designed several options.

So, three days ago I said the best option for the Tatars in the Crimea is to fight a classic insurgency operation.

Yes, the Russians have "planned" for this, but planning and executing are very different actions.

If the Ukrainian military is wise, they will let the Tatars carry the fight as they buy time to repair a military their old Russian sympathetic President sabotaged.

Oh ya.. you guessed it.. The Russian saw this as a possible Enemy Course of Action / COA/ as well.

So, if we all see what is coming, lets see if the politicians can keep it from happening.

The Tatars of the Crimean are the key and I wonder who in the intelligence community understands this?

Oh ya... Footnote:

Please!!! The statement the forces in the Crimean are not Russian!!!

When will some political leaders learn that  to sound stupid on international TV is expected, but should be avoided.

If they are not Russian units, then lets see the intelligence community identify what type of communication signals are coming from the " home guard" members.

Do the signals match the electronic footprint of known Russian unit equipment?

Lets see the West / NATO/ show prof of what units showed up in the Crimea and how they got there.

Do you think  units showing up on an airfield is not traceable?

Do you think a motor pool that was full four days ago at the Russian Navel base that now shows to be empty is not noticeable?

Good grief.

It doesn't take a satellite and an intelligence analyst to prove this.

Someone on their cell phone is all that is needed.

If you don't believe this, then you have not been paying attention to Syria for the past three years!!!

Yes.. Social Media is the 21st century version of civilian Intelligence networking and it works far better than some that the world  pays BILLIONS for!!!