SANCTIONS ... "MORE THAN BUSH  IN 2008"!!!!ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Ok,  as I predicted, the "vote" took place and nothing really happened.

I say nothing really happened simply because, to the Tsar's people the so called sanctions announced today in the US and Europe.... well... they amounted to nothing.

What I was stunned by was the argument by some in the US that President Bush didn't even execute sanctions against Russia for the actions in Georgia in 2008!!!

Really...It's been over five years... How much longer does the current US administration continue to compare what does and doesn't do with the Bush years?

As I said last week, the backers of the Tsar are as financially safe now as they were before the crisis in the Ukraine started and that explains the lackadaisical response today.

Having said that, let's take a look at what the current "perception" environment most likely is in Europe, not to mention other parts of the world.

If you were in... let's say...Poland.... and you heard the actions taken by the European Union and the US today, what comfort level would it give you?

How about if you were not pro Russian and you lived in Moldova?

What would be your gut feeling about support from the US or the EU if you lived somewhere that use to have a Soviet flag flying on your land?

When you heard how the US could increase fuel exports to pressure the Tsar in the one area he worries about... fuel profits.... and at the end of the discussion you heard absolutely nothing about this increased action taking place..... what would you think?

If you were a Muslim Tatar in the Crimea; after today's results.. who would you start contemplating turning to?

If you lived in the part of Europe; soon to be all of Europe, that felt most threatened by the new Tsar's hunger for power, how confident would you be in your "independent" future?

Ok, here comes my next question.

Just how serious is the Tsar about physically controlling Europe... all of Europe?

Is that what he really wants?

Does he want the Russian flag flying in Berlin.... Paris...?

Well, if we were talking about anyone other than Mr. Putin, I would quickly answer no!

Having said that, I am still convinced that is not the Tsars goal!

So; just how big of a threat is this more forwardly aggressive Putin?

It's a very hard question to give a definitive answer to, but my gut tells me the hype is growing larger than the intent.

The world media loves a story and the world of social media is truly an unregulated rumor machine.

It would be easy to say, "we will all wake up tomorrow and the world will mostly likely be just the same as it has been for years"!

Here is the problem with the, ' I'm not worried about it" camp!

Although the Tsar and his followers have a vision of what the new Russia will look like, the path of implementation will do as it has always done.... create second and third order effects....

Ah yes... If you know me, you know I have drifted into one of my favorite topics;
" The Law of Unintended Consequences"!!!!!

Putin had and has a "plan"..

The world has and will react... overreact!

Key parts of the world will under react.. ( insert the word 'sanctions here)!

Under reaction will lead to have hazard over reaction based upon internal political pressure...In the West.. everyone has to get reelected and if you are seen as "weak".. then your odds go way....way .... down!!!

So, it's like this.

Putin's plan probably doesn't call for the Russian flag in Berlin... at least I not at this time!

Making money and gaining respect... those are the key goals of the new Tsar.. my bet!!

The trouble is... his actions will set into motion other events...even in other parts of the world... that have absolutely nothing to do with his original plan.

And that is the future... that we all must fear....

Things will not be the same after the events of the Ukraine..... just as they have not been the same after the events of the Arab Spring.. Just ask the GCC....

Putin knows where he wanted this all to end up, but does he realize as much as he would like to think other wise... he doesn't control the entire process?

It's the historical downfall of methodical Tyrants.