MIDDLE EAST AND THE UKRAINIAN CONNECTION.

Two weeks ago, I stated the impact of the Ukrainian crisis could easily end up impacting the conflict in Syria.

That was an easy and safe thing to predict, and because of that, I would like to take the time to go back to a topic I've not spoken of in the past three months.

I've not said much about the events in Syria for several months for one basic reason; not much was changing.

The stalemate that nearly everyone who knows the region predicted had come true.

The North cannot be retaken by the Assad forces and the South cannot be won by the Rebels thanks to Iranian and Hezbollah support.

What had become more than apparent was the ability to prevent Lebanon from becoming the fuse that truly ignited the entire region.

Most of the credit for this accomplishment must go to the people of Lebanon for it is they who have fought hard to keep Lebanon from sliding into the abyss.

I gave and would give very little credit to the West or "others.... insert GCC members here, for keeping Lebanon from imploding.

It is truly Lebanon's will that has kept the country from slipping over the edge of madness.

So, what has changed?

What has the Ukrainian crisis done to the day to day odds of Lebanon and the events in Syria or the Middle East in general of falling into a regional conflict?

Well, the true answer rest with the Tsar!

Yes the Tsar!

How far is he willing to counter the Western reaction to his plan of reestablishing the Russian Empire's grip on Eastern Europe?

Just how is the Middle East fit into the emerging struggle between the West and the new Russian Empire?

When the Master Plan was being drafted in Moscow, what was the "plan" for the Middle East?

The Middle East; a region that is a competitor for petrol dollars?

Never ever forget.... the bottom line for the future of the Tsar's Mother Russia is based upon the price of fuel!

You can philosophize to the Cows come home, but the fact of the matter is, the Tsar centers his master plan based on the profits of fuel!

Let's assume, remember... the "assumption game is one of my favorites, the Tsar's plans for the region called the Middle East are based upon keeping the price of fuel high!

Does he want "peace" in the region?

No!

Does he desire competitive markets?

What do "competitive markets do...drive down prices....thus... drive down profits and profits make the Motherland grow.

If the West truly understands how to counter the Tsar, then they understand the price of fuel is the real Center of Gravity.

If the Middle East stabilizes, then the price of fuel is determined by the GCC and then the question becomes does the GCC have the same "vision" the Tsar has?

I know that answer and it's NO!

Here is the truly ironic part of this story... the GCC / Saudi / reached out to the Tsar when it felt abandoned by the West / US / and the Tsar did not take the handshake.  

IDIOT!!!

Can the Tsar control the events of the Middle East?

No!

Can the West?

No!

Can the people of Lebanon hold on for much longer?

Let's all pray, regardless of what we think our God says, so!

The only thing holding the Middle East together right now are the people who want to avoid a regional war at all cost.

If the Tsar needs a regional war in the Middle East and the West would rather have the Israelis fight one there than the West fight in Europe, then we who do not wish for war need to support the good people of the Middle East at all cost!