SYRIA... IRAN... HEZBOLLAH... THE TSAR... AND THE BIG PICTURE SNAPSHOT.

It's been more than difficult to keep up with my postings for the past few weeks and I am still trying to get back into a real rhythm and hopefully soon that will happen!!!

Ok, there is a great deal that we could talk about, but in the interest of getting back into a personal rhythm, let's take a look at what I use to call the, "Snapshot" for the region.

Lets start with what I consider one of the most interesting rumors in well over a year; the withdraw of Hezbollah forces from Syria.

Is it true?

Most likely the answer is yes.

Why is it taking place?

Ah... now there is the fascinating part of the story.

If you've followed my opinions of Hezbollah's actions in Syria, you will remember that I considered Hezbollah's movement into the Syrian Civil War as a huge strategic and even a tactical miscalculation.

The tide of the war was not in favor of Assad and his Puppet Masters in Iran pushed one of their most precious resources into the fight in a desperate attempt to save Assad.

If you remember, I said then and I still believe this would lead to Hezbollah's base becoming a prime target for the Sunni fighters and that is exactly what took place.

Not only did it take place, but it continues to take place and my bet is the worst is yet to come for the Hezbollah clans of Lebanon.

Saying the deployment into Syria was unpopular with the Hezbollah supporters was, and still is, an understatement.

What came next for Hezbollah would only make the dicey situation even worse.

Just when Hezbollah and their Persian Masters became convinced the West was finally about to intervene in Syria, the call went out for even a larger deployment of Hezbollah forces; a call that was not well received in Lebanon.

The fact these forces were set to defend against a highly anticipated Sunni counterstrike synchronized with the promised Western strikes made this additional manpower drain of the HomeGaurd in Lebanon somewhat more palatable, but once again, Shia Arab males were being sent into battle not against the dreaded IDF or even the Infidels of the West, but against fellow Muslim Arabs... on Arab land!!!! Think about it!!!

Well, we all know what became of the Western response.

That gets us back up to date on the Hezbollah issue in Syria and it may give us some understanding of what we see taking place.

Could the observed, and trust me, the IDF knows, withdraw of forces from Syria be nothing more than the return of the surge sent for the Western attack?

Most likely!

Is Hezbollah leaving Syria?

I would bet not.

Remember, Assad and the Persian's primary goal has not been reached; the capture of Aleppo!

And that brings us to the next real issue; what is the real status of Assad's campaign to take Sunni strongholds?

Again, if we go back to my comments from months ago, we will see the primary objective of Iran's push in Syria.... the taking of Aleppo!

So, here is the update!

Can Assad and his Masters take Aleppo?

No!

Is that why Hezbollah is leaving?

No!

Is that why Hezbollah is going to stay?

Yes!

Here is the next phase of the "update".

Has Iran changed it's mined?

Is the survival of Assad the real end-state still?

Have the Persians and the Tsar taken a new course on the issue of Syria?

Again, go back to what I said at the very beginning of the conflict in Syria.

The survival of Assad and his government is based upon one simple factor; the support of the Persians and the Tsar.

Time and time again, I have commented on the lifespan of Assad and the reality he will never know if a "deal" is done to move Syria forward without him.

I was and still may be convinced his use of chemical weapons back in August was based upon his paranoia of his Masters plotting his demise.

In the spirit of keeping this discussion with " Snapshot" framework, let's ask a few simple questions.

Has the "objective" of the Persians and the Tsar changed?

Has it become clear to both of them the battle cannot be won in Syria?

Do they realize they cannot take Aleppo or even protect the land they have retaken; what little that is?

If Assad is no longer seen as the future of Persian and Tsarist plans for Syria, then what is the "plan"?

Did the Tsar take great pleasure in making the West / US / look foolish over the chemical weapons event and more importantly, is he done?

Simply put, has the other side redefined what they are trying to achieve?

Could the answer be found in the highly talked about Iranian Initiative?

Just how close is the Russian / Persian team?

Who really gets to set what the "goals" are?

We know the Tsar needs Sunni fighters tied up somewhere else until after the 2014 Winter Olympics and Syria is the location he has selected.

We know the Iranians are in a full court press to show the "kinder.. more gentler... Persian Empire and we know the world is foaming at the mouth to believe what they seem to be seeing.

As the Western world plays the "good cop... bad cop" game with the Persians, the reality for Israel will not be distracted.

"We will go alone if needed"... That was the message by the Israelis at the UN, but I wonder who was listening!

Ok, it's October 2013 and the fact of the matter is, a Sectarian war is still in full swing with the key players... the GCC and the Persians showing no signs of pulling back.

Hezbollah's movement is in it's own self-interest and I have to wonder how that event is playing out in the Persian Empire.

Does the Middle East remain dangerous?

Yes.

Does the glimmer of "hope" coming from the Persians indicate "light at the end of the tunnel"?

No.

What it does mean is the region grows more and more confusing by the day and those with the ability to figure it all out simply don't exist.

The region is a proxy tool to the Tsar..

The region is the battlefield of the Arab, Persian, Ottoman Empire hopefuls.

To the Israelis, it's just another day of struggle for survival.

To the rest of the world.... well...just keep pumping and it will all just go away!!!