Rumors upon rumors of Egyptian military actions
"pending" in the Sinai have placed the tunnels to Gaza back in the spotlight.
Does Gaza need the tunnels to
keep what standard of living exist in Gaza ?
Yes..
Does Hamas have the ability to control what passes from Gaza into the Sinai?
The perception is that they can or more importantly, they
are expected to!
The IDF and just about anyone else that has paid attention
to this tunnel process knows exactly what takes place and it's not all about
supplies for the people of Gaza.
For several years the ability for certain members on both
sides of the tunnel complex to make money from "movements" has never
been addressed, yet it's the money that make the whole process work.
Everyone knows the tunnels support the radical members of
Hamas on other groups in Gaza and everyone knows
those "radicals" move from Gaza
back into the Sinai using the same tunnels.
When the Egyptian military went after the tunnel network,
only certain tunnels where impacted and that didn't happen by happenstance.
What do you move and how much to you pay, on both sides,
that is one set of determining factors on tunnel activity.
The bigger factor rest with, who gets paid... what family...
what military commander?
Now, some would say the solution is easy; if Hamas wants the
tunnels to be left alone, then Hamas needs to insure how they are utilized!
If only it were that simple.
Here is Hamas' bigger problem.
The Egyptian Military is ill prepared to deal with the low
intensity conflicts taking place in the Sinai and they know it; thus the reluctances
to start this now highly anticipated " Operation" in the area.
Hamas may not control the complete tunnel process, but they
can be held responsible for the impact of the tunnels, the right ones to make Gaza suffer, being closed
down.
Hamas knew all too well when they hitched their wagon to the
Muslim Brotherhood Horse, they risked dire results from the Egyptian Military;
thus the tunnel issue.
If the Hamas gamble was based upon the ex President of
Egypt, Morsi, gaining the upper hand over the Egyptian military,
well........... that was a bad gamble!!!!
Will the new Egyptian government risk the bad publicity of Gaza going into crisis
mode over dried up tunnel movements?
Most likely the answer is going to be yes!
Before the Egyptian military, a far more professional outfit
than others in the region, can contemplate "operations" on a large
scale in the Sinai, they must do what every good military
understands........... control the ability for the enemy to receive help.
Does the Egyptian military know what tunnels can be open and
what ones must be closed?
You bet they do and that is why some are still open.
Does the Egyptian military plan on isolating the enemy in
the Sinai?
Absolutely!
The question truly becomes, how long will it take the
Egyptian military to execute the operation in the Sinai and can Gaza hold on until that
operation is over?
Here is the problem with developing the answer to that
question.
The Egyptian military is not geared for the type of
operation the Sinai events are going to call for.
That leads the Egyptian military with one real option;
conduct a quick operation and declare victory!!!
That is my bet!
And that leads me to my final point.
What happens when you declare "victory" and then
the enemy shows up again or worse, somewhere else?
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