Ok, I've been away from the daily inputs since Friday when
the whole event in Turkey
took place for one simple reason.
I've been trying to figure out just what is taking place,
why and most importantly; what does it mean?
Let's look at those three basic questions.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN TURKEY
The most commonly asked question continues to be, "is
this the Turkish Spring"?
The answer is more than complex, but my hunch is it's way
too early to tell.
Erdogan is flying down the road that several leaders have
traveled since the early days of Tunisia !
His increasing drumbeat response of, "these actions are
sponsored by 'outsiders', is rumbling like a three year old echo!!!
Now, everyone knows Erdogan has an ego second to none and
his ability to talk down his nose to everyone around him has a ten year track
record.
If he is really in trouble, the killing wound of arrogance
simply wont be that surprising to those who know him.
Today's move by the Unions was most likely unanticipated by
the Turkish government and their response to this commitment will tell us the
real story.
Next Question:
WHY?
You know, sometimes when you are in power for too long and
for too long everything goes the way you demand it, the breaking point comes at
the least expected moment and typically with little warning.
Does anyone really believe the "Trees" in a park
is or was the issue?
Really????
The fact of the matter is, when enough people are reaching
the breaking point, but they just don't have the nerve jump first, it takes
someone else's actions to get the game started.
This is exactly what happened.
Nobody set themselves on fire, not yet that is, but the
anger has been building and Erdogan's ego simply didn't let him believe it; I
still don't think he believes it!!!!!
Last week, just prior to this crisis starting I was reading
about the new Alcohol Laws for Turkey .
I remember saying to myself, I bet this gets the people into
the streets!
Well, trees or no trees.... I think the Alcohol crackdown
was the real breaking point.
Like every good "revolt" once it gets underway,
it's hard to gage just where it will go and how large it will become.
The anger built up in the people of Turkey is the
fuel and the more fuel there is, the more the chances are the protest will grow
and sustain themselves; it's the simple math of civil unrest.
Third Question:
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
Simply put, is Erdogan's government in trouble?
As I said earlier, it's a little early to tell, but the next
few days are more than critical.
His leaving the country right in the middle of this crisis
was a real gamble, one that once again shows his arrogance.....
For a person who has been in power for over ten years and
has spent a great deal of time driving his country towards the religious
baseline, his reactions are somewhat strange.
Is there Erdogan Fatigue in Turkey ?
Yep!!!
Is the youth of Turkey ready for covered women and
the closure of night clubs?
Have you ever been to Istanbul ....
at night???
There is your answer.
Ok, one of the reasons I've been off the net for the past
few days is simply because I've been trying to figure out how Egodan ( get
it????) is going to react to this potential disaster for his government.
I've resurfaced today to start the process of predictive
analysis and over the next few days I
will try to paint a picture of where Egodan ( my new name for him) is heading.
This will not only be more than interesting, but it's going
to signal a brand new chapter in the Soap Opera called the Middle
East ....one that was not predicted.
That's right.. What is taking place in Turkey was unanticipated,
but not to everyone and that is what Egodan will try and play off of if he has
to save his job.
You will see what I mean over the next few days..
Stay in touch.. this is more than interesting.
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