THE PENDING BATTLE FOR ALEPPO
So, what has changed for Assad?
Why have his forces been successful in a conflict they have
been losing for two years?
Lets list the major reasons and then dive into why Aleppo may bring this
short wining streak to a dramatic end.
I've mentioned this several time in the past few months, but
the input of Hezbollah forces has had a significant impact on Assad's ability
to go on the offence.
The other danger is the amount of experience Hezbollah is
gaining from this operation as well....something the IDF is not overlooking.
Open support from Iran
and Russia ,
and I don't mean verbal!
The disunity of the Syrian resistance has proven to be more
than harmful to their cause.
The apparent change of heart by Western supporters, and
event that is still taking place ever sense the comment about Support to AQ......
note in history books... STUPID on the Sunni's part...
Along with this rift in the Western unity to support or not
support the anti Assad forces is the ever growing fear of civil war in Lebanon .
All of the above issues are vital to the shift of momentum
in Syria ,
but one other issue has to be addressed.
If you watched how the city of Qusayr was attacked, you will notice a
dramatic change in tactics for Assad's forces.
Up until now, even when artillery and air strikes were
utilized, there remained some consideration for " collateral damage".
That consideration is gone!
Syrian actions now are much more to the liking of the
Persian Masters, total, kinetic warfare!
Add to that the predictable, yet tragic mistake by the Sunni
Rebels to truly believe they could step out into the open and fight a truly
kinetic fight with Assad's forces.
This shift in both of their tactics spelled disaster for the
Sunni forces.
So, when you put all of these issues into one big bowl, you
come up with a recipe for defeat for the Sunni Rebels, at least for now!
Now, if things weren't going bad enough for the Sunni
Rebels, now the Turkish support process could be in real trouble.
Egodan's actions have Turkey more than distracted.
If all of this is the case, then is it any wonder the
Persians and their hand puppet Assad is tempted to go for the jugular?
Simply put, I believe the pending assault on Aleppo is yet another
trap and Assad and his Persian Masters are falling right into it!
Look at the map of Syria .
How far is it from Qusayr to Aleppo ?
What has be bypassed?
Now, many times in military history Commanders have made the
conscious decision to "bypass" a stronghold in order to reach deep
into their enemies rear; thus going for a killing blow!
I believe this is the theory Assad's handlers are taking.
Is Homs and the area around Homs so secure for the Syrian forces that they can afford
to drive right passed them and set up a siege of Aleppo ?
Are the sure and if so why?
Did Hezbollah Scouts give them the " all is
clear"?
Scotts only see what the enemy is foolish enough to let them
see!!!!
Did they fight their way to Aleppo ?
If not, why not??? (
I bet someone is asking the question.)
Ok, let me wrap this up and get back to Turkey on
Thursday's post.
In my opinion, the trap for the Sunni Rebels was the
combined effort to take Damascus .
Assad's forces let them concentrate their efforts and forces,
build their confidence with a few minor victories near the city and then they close, they sprung the trap!!!
The Persians sent in Hezbollah and at the same time the
switch to total kenotic combat was executed on the Sunni Rebel's rear....
Qusayr!
The battlefield results were all but a given.
But now!!!!
Now, in my opinion, the Sunni trap may very well be set.
Assad's forces and Hezbollah must move far north.. far away
from supporting units.
They must bypass Homs and
what ever forces they think ran back into Lebanon
or Turkey .
When Assad's forces feel they are ready to move on Aleppo , the Sunni trap
may spring!
The attack on Damascus
from the South!!
The Attack from the area around Homs !
And finally, the support of a few "others" ....
GCC and Europe , namely in the form of key
weapon systems with perhaps even a few "experts" from the GCC!!!
What could make this possible Sunni Rebel counter trap execute
with devastating results?
Concentrated effort to kill Hezbollah units!!!
In the history of close order battle, if the elite units are
seen as failing, the panic of the common fighters, in this case Assad's forces,
will crumble!!
If the Sunni Rebels hand the Hezbollah fighters devastating
losses in and around Aleppo or Homs or the "Rear Guard" Hezbollah has
most likely left in or near Damascus or even better yet.... in Lebanon ....
then Assad's forces may be in far more trouble than he ever dreamed.
Ok!
Back to Turkey ,
for that issue is about to boil and the battle of Aleppo is probably a few days away yet, especially
if Assad or his Persian Master's smell a trap!
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