NASRALLAH GIVES HIS SPEECH, BUT WHAT DID IT MEAN?

Ok, yesterday I commented on Nasrallah giving a speech soon for two reasons.

1. To try to explain to his support base why Hezbollah was fighting in Syria... Hint his answer was really...really weak!!!

2.  He would give a hint as to where Hezbollah was heading with the Syrian conflict.

Now that the "speech" is over, a few things jumped out at me.

It's clear Nasrallah was addressing more than just his base.

His comments and statements were often directed towards his opponents fighting in Syria.

If you really breakdown his speech, it's clear over half of his comments were addressed to the rebels in Syria.

Now, to some degree he did address the West to include Israel, but threats to the West and Israel were clearly not the centerpiece of this event.

The next item that caught me by surprise was Narallah's repeated reference to "friends" not allowing the Syrian Government to fall; side not... notice he did not mention Assad by name?

He even went as far as stating these "friends" have assured him they would not allow the fall of the current government in Syria.

Strange!!

Why the emphasis on this point?

I think I know why!!

As I said, although he didn't spend a great deal of time threatening the West or Israel, this implied statement of so called "fact" that Syria's "friends" would not allow it to fall was a clear indirect / implied threat.

If you read between the lines, the statement is this, " if the West openly intervenes, then Iran will commit to the fight"!!

I know he mentioned Russia, but not even the blowhard Nasrallah could possibly think for a minute the Tsar would commit combat forces to Syria?

No oil / no fuel from Syrian land... no commitment by the Tsar... Oil / fuel rules his thought process 24/7/365.

Ok, having made the comment about the Russians, did Nasrallah just put the rest of the West on notice that Iran is willing to go the distance for Syria?

Most likely, and that makes the US / Western response to the WMD issue about as dangerous as it can get.

The third issue that caught my attention with Nasrallah's speech was  the absolute egocentric way he addressed Lebanon's response to Lebanese citizens being in danger along the Syrian border!!

His point was simple, the Lebanese government is not capable of defending the Lebanese people and only Hezbollah can take on this great challenge.

Let there be no doubt that Nasrallah truly believes he controls Lebanon!!!!

Last night, I commented Nasrallah had perhaps an opportunity to pull Hezbollah out of the cycle of danger they had allowed Iran to force them into.

It is clear today, Nasrallah has no intention of backing up!!!!

Like the little Bully who thinks his 6-5 / 300 lb friend is standing behind him //// Iran///// Nasrallah just kicked sand into the world's face....

Oh by the way, just who is Nasrallah.... and what is Hezbollah really/?????

Let me make a comparison and see if your perspective changes.

Can you imagine in the US / Britain / China / France / Germany / Russia... an armed group based upon a religious doctrine living outside the control of the national government... a militia / armed to the teeth / that dictates to the rest of the world's leaders what the country they are living in is going to do and not do?

It's like the KKK dictating to DC what the US will and will not do and speaking for the US on international affairs?

It's insane and that is exactly how the rest of the world needs to view Hezbollah!!!

Ok, here is the bottom line.

Nesrallah, for all intensive purposes, drew his redline today..

"Do not intervene in Syria or Syria's "friends" will defeat you"!!!

Here is the problem with "redlines"....  when someone steps across, they do so knowing they are ready to take on the consequences...

Is Hezbollah ready for that???? Really???

How deep is the whole Nesrallah lives in??

If I was him I would dig a much deeper hole or be ready to move that "redline"...

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-01/215667-nasrallah-hints-assads-allies-could-intervene.ashx#axzz2RzpBgAiQ

HIZBALLAH LOSES IN SYRIA.... MORE THAN JUST MEMBERS!!!

Sticking with the issue of Hizbollah's challenges again today for one simple reason; it's the most important issue potentially for the whole region.

For several weeks the rumors of "troubles" inside the Hizbollah camp have been circulating  and this trend now holds true going into the month of May.

This report by DEBKA, if true, is one of the more dramatic events pertaining to Hizbollah's future.

The rumor of a pending speech by Nasrallah within the next few days just took on a whole new level of urgency, if this DEBKA story is true. 

Nasrallah has every intention of explaining to the Hizbollah base support why their fighters are engaged in Syria.

I am one of those who truly believe the UAV incident last week with Israel was nothing more than an attempt by Nasrallah to show the "base" he still has his eye on the Israel.

Can you imagine having to walk into the room, as he is preparing his speech, and inform him one of his top leaders has been killed in Syria along with several members of one of the organization's most revered units?

Try adding that explanation to the speech!!

Now, I made the comment a few months ago the addition of Hizbollah " regulars" would dramatically change the Battlefield for the Syrian Rebels and the last two weeks of fighting seems to have proven me right.

But, as is the case with most extended conflicts, the "shock" of a new leverage has the tendency to level off over time and that could be exactly what happened to this elite unit.

In simple terms, their enemy adapted to their tactics and then executed a counter strike.

So, what does this all mean?

If we accept the fact that Hizbollah is in more trouble now than at any point in their history, what does it mean?

If ever there was a prime example of " The Law of Unintended Consequences", the near future of Hizbollah's actions may become a textbook case.

Nasrallah's pending speech to his "Base" may just be for wider audience than he had initially hoped for.

Watch for it.... It's going to be vital to the near future of the region!!

If, and I say if, but if Narallah has a crack in his armor... if he is looking for an escape route... he just may hint to it in this next speech.

http://www.debka.com/article/22936/Hizballah-loses-two-high-officers-in-major-defeat-at-al-Qusayr-near-Homs

IRAN'S MESSAGE.. "DAMNED IF YOU DO AND DAMNED IF YOU DON'T"

Ahmadinejad's "statement" today was more than just a reminder of Iran's commitment to Assad; it was a veiled threat.

With all the talk of what should the West do about the alleged WMD utilization in Syria, this timely statement from Iran was directed to those making decisions.

What's interesting is the concept of Iranian leadership possibly assuming those Western decision makers had forgotten such a vital point.

In fact, I'm confident Iran did not assume this loss of reality, but simply believed a well timed statement might reinforce a final vote of indecisiveness.

Sometimes, the best moment in time to influence a decision is just before you believe that decision is about to be made.

Timing!!!! A critical tool in the art of international politics.

I'm not going to enter the endless debate of "what should the West do and what are the repercussions if they do or don't do 'something'?

Here is a simple and in my opinion undeniable fact.

Syria and the status of Assad / the Shia government / is vital to Iran.

The fall of Assad and his government is a classic example of " A clear and Present Danger" to the Iranian government.

Of all the issues that must be weighted before the West responds to the possible, probable. use of WMDs in Syria, this Clear and Present Danger fact absolutely carries the greatest amount of value.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't!!!

The issue becomes, you must chose one version of "damned"!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Apr-28/215340-syria-rebel-victory-would-threaten-region-iran.ashx#axzz2Ro1usb6C

HEZBOLLAH .. HOUSE DIVIDED.. THE PRESSURE GROWS!!

I want to stay on the theme of Hezbollah becoming a House Divided tonight, but I will end with a follow on comment dealing with Iraq.

You know, there is an old saying, one I've used on many occasions, "where there is smoke, there is fire"!!!!

If rumors of "troubles" inside of Hezbollah took the shape of smoke, then the smoke gets thicker with each passing day.

Hezbollah leadership is trying, feebly in my opinion, to explain away their losses in areas other than Shia villages near the Lebanese border with Syria.

As one article I read today stated; as Israeli jets fly over Lebanon, Hezbollah fighters are dying in Syria for Assad and their Persian Master.

Hezbollah's leadership cannot "wish" this problem away and their inability to provide plausible explanations to their base is becoming  more and more worrisome not only to them, but to the Puppet Masters back in Tehran.

To reiterate.... Hezbollah has a dangerous problem and they know it!!

Can they become a "House Divided"???

Just look at the Palestinian movement / Hamas / Fatah and you will have your answer.

Ok, Iraq:

Last night I made an argument for Iran pulling the strings on the violence in Iraq and why they would support such an event.

For the sake of point / counterpoint / let me ask an even more dangerous question.

What if... I just love "What if" questions... but what if... Iran had nothing to do with the rapidly escalating events in Iraq?

What if the events in Iraq were  the next phase of the uncontrolled, uncoordinated, relentless Sunni revolt in the region?

What if the Arab Spring "Virus" .... yes I still refer to it as such, but I must admit, I am growing more and more fond of the "White Walkers" analogy, was the cause of the events in Iraq?

What would Iran think if they had just committed their last true proxy force, Hezbollah, to the battlefield in Syria and the counter was the Sunni assault initiated in Iraq?

Has Iran committed a fatal error in their strategic response to the Arab Spring?

If you can't see the logic in this last sentence, then you need to increase you understanding of what is taking place in the region.

Last night I talked of Iran possibly starting a backfire to prevent larger events such as Sunni success in Syria from taking place.

Could it be the fire in Iraq is the counter-strike set by the Sunni and the GCC???

Interesting to say the least:)

IRAN'S PLANS FOR IRAQ.. ANOTHER SUNNI DISTRACTION?

In the past, I have mentioned the concept of preempting a larger event by starting a smaller one; much like the concept of a backfire to prevent a larger forest fire... the analogy I've used in the past!

Yesterday, I talked to the issue of Iran opening a second front on the Syrian rebels by employing Hezbollah and how much of a gamble that might to Iran's overall status in the region.

So, when the events of today took place in Iraq, I couldn't help but contemplate, again, why would Iran allow such an event to take place?

Now, the assumption here is the concept  that Iran has some level of influence over the Iraq government and as such, they had some level of input to the attack on the Sunni protestors.

Do I truly believe Iran has the ability to influence such an event in Iraq?

Yes.... I do!!!

The Sunni protest / demonstrations / have been increasing since December of last year and I would have a very hard time accepting the fact Iran had no say so on  how the Iraq government should deal with these events.

It's my opinion the Iranian leadership influenced the "plan" Iraq came up with to deal with the Sunni threats, but what the Iranian "goal" was ...........well.......that is where my theory gets interesting.

Let, me get straight to the point.

It is my belief Iran has calculated a "backfire"  to preempt any Sunni support from Iraq moving into Syria.

I Believe Iran anticipated the potential game changer Hezbollah might create in Syria and that would most likely draw additional Sunni support from Iraq into Syria.

The best way to prevent this would be to draw Iraqi Sunni unit's into a controlled event on Iraqi land.

Does this sound far fetched?

Let me ask a question in order to answer a question?

Just how paranoid has Iran become?

To what level is Iran willing to go in order to salvage their grip on Syria?

More importantly..... what does Iran have to lose by preempting events in Iraq they know are going to happen in the near future?

Why wait?

If we accept my theory on events in Iraq, then the next important question becomes; what's next for Iraq?

Forrest Fire Fighters will tell you there is always a risk with setting " backfires"!!!

What if the "backfire in Iraq.....backfires????

History is full of examples of plans hatched in desperation that failed and sometimes even failed in disastrous fashion!!

Is that what is going to take place in Iraq?

 DID ASSAD  AND IRAN JUST OPEN A SECOND FRONT?

A month ago or so, some of us asked the question, would Tehran risk utilizing Hezbollah's limited resources to open a second front on the Syrian Rebels?

The events of the past two weeks and especially the past few days, may have provided us with our answer.

Al-Qusair appears to be the Hezbollah priority of effort and at the tactical level that constitutes a "second front" for the Sunni fighters in Syria.

Drawing resources away from what Assad and Tehran truly believed was the concentrated effort to take Damascus that was and is now the objective.

The threat of drawing Lebanon into the conflict are no longer just words, but most likely a actual, strategic decision being considered.

Here is the problem with that concept; it will not be decided by the Lame Duck Government sitting inside of Turkey.

The decision will most likely be made by al-Nusra, much to the anguish of the so called Syrian Provisional government or whatever they call themselves.

What is even more dangerous is the fact that Lebanon has a limited ability to prevent this from happening.

Salafist Sheikh Ahmad AssirSyria

Lebanon

The odds are better than 50. 50 they will.

As important as this issue is to the overall status of the region, it is even more worrisome that Iran has already contemplated this play.

Prior to placing Hezbollah nearly at the forefront to turn the tide of battle, Tehran had to weigh the possible impacts of such an open engagement with it's number one proxy fighter.

This brings about the next important question.

What next?

What does Iran expect from the open placement of Hezbollah?

One thing is for sure; if this is Iran's version of "Brinkmanship" I pray they are willing to limit the extent of the action that may come.

The road to war may be about to get much wider!!! 

HEZBOLLAH'S ACTIONS IN SYRIA... THE "WHITE WALKERS" ARE COMING!!

In the past, I have addressed the issue of why Hezbollah can and cannot afford to be involved in the Syrian Civil War, but now the issue of "involvement is nearly a mute point!

Lets review several key issues on the topic, before addressing what the next step now seems to be.

1.  Hezbollah has struggled with the concept of risking their response capabilities, in regards to Israel, by being drawn into the Syrian conflict.

2.  Hezbollah has created an internal rift over the issue of members being killed in a cause that does not involve Israel.

3.  Hezbollah fears the repercussions of a full blown sectarian war between the Sunni and Shia.

4.  Hezbollah fears the potential loss of control in Lebanon by being over tasked with supporting Assad and Tehran.

5.  Hezbollah is desperate to avoid a open conflict that would witness Hamas members openly fighting Hezbollah members.

6.  Hezbollah understands the "perception" the Shia of Lebanon will adopt if Hezbollah is seen as reluctant or ineffective at "defending" the Shia towns along the Syrian border.

So, what do these six issues really mean to Hezbollah and the rest of the region?

It's simple........... Hezbollah must fight or they must walk away from Assad and Tehran!!!!

Their real predicament is.... they can't survive ether event.

The loss of a combat capable Hezbollah is a blow to Iran and perhaps a fatal blow!

Like the "White Walkers" of Game of Thrones... The Sunni are coming and the Iranian version of the 

"Nights Watch" /// Hezbollah /// have little chance of succeeding.

What options would Iran have left???

That is the real....real.... danger!!

IS HEZBOLLAH BECOMING A "HOUSE DIVIDED"???

I have addressed this issue in the past, but today article brings light back to the very important subject; is Hezbollah suffering from the events in Syria?

Last week we read of parents questioning Hezbollah leadership over the deaths of family members in Syria; a land they are not from.

I have long be of the opinion that Iran's pushing Hezbollah into  action in Syria was an action they knew might come with a price.

Lets revisit an issue that cannot be overlooked.

Hezbollah is less confident about their collective future in Lebanon than at anytime in their past.

The distraction of fighting, at the behest of Tehran / Persians / in Syria, although holding some value to them, is very possibly becoming a burden they question spending capital on.

If Assad wants to keep Hezbollah's support, it will take more than just Iran ordering Hezbollah to commit forces.

Assad will have to do two things:

1.  Sweeten the pot for Hezbollah... weapons... and ones they really want.

2.  Convince them that if he falls, they fall.... "we are all in this Sectarian war together"!!!

Now, could someone be "leveraging" the anxiety that seems to be building in the ranks of Hezbollah?

You bet and I can think of several suspects!!!

Can it work; can Hezbollah begin to resist the conflict in Syria?

I don't see how, for to do so would in all practicality make Assad's second point become a reality.

A fractionalized Hezbollah is a dream come true, unless you sit and think about a Sunni steamroller rolling over the GCC states.

Would the Muslim Brotherhood like to see Hezbollah marginalized and divided?

Yep..

Would Israel?

Yep...

Would the West.. well.... the US.... ???

Yep..

Oh what a complicated game the Middle East is!!!!

Everyone wants to be in charge and everyone is willing to betray the guy / nation / cause / next to them to get there...

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Dissent-within-Hezbollah-over-involvement-in-Syria-310316

ATTACK IN BOSTON... WHAT IT MEANS TO ASSAD, IRAN, NORTH KOREA!

One thing was for certain early yesterday afternoon; the media would not be talking about North Korea anytime soon.

The media is not set to let the possible UN WMD team inspections for Syria simply slip by.

Did anyone mention the failure of the ongoing negotiations with Iran over it's nuclear program?

Yes, it's easy to see and understand that all three of these very important events have dropped out of the public's eye; although, you can rest assured they have not dropped out of the watchful eye of the US government and its Allies.

Assad and Tehran may have had nothing to do with the events in Boston; I am very convinced of that...given the price that would be paid if they were tied to the attack, but you  can rest assured they both will take every advantage they can as the US and it's Allies try to determine who was behind this event.

We have all known for over two years now Assad looks at every opportunity of a "distraction" as a gift.

Although Tehran is not as desperate for the act of a distraction, it is welcomed never the less.

Tehran sees the concept of "distractions" as one simple but critical element in their Master Plan.....time.... distractions buy them what they need most....time!!!!

Here  comes the fundamental difference between Iran, Syria and North Korea!

The attack in Boston is not an "advantage" for North Korea... the attack in Boston does not buy North Korea "time".

As a matter of fact, the attack in Boston has the complete opposite impact on the Boy Dictator in North Korea; it removes him from the daily spotlight and that is, in my opinion, the most dangerous issue possible.

You see, everything he has been doing has all been designed to gather the world's attention to his ability to make the world listen to him......well.......maybe....... part of me still fears he really does think he can go to war with the South and the US!!

So, from the perspective of the young Dictator, the Boston attack was a disaster.

Virtually nobody in the Western Press even mentioned his name one time today.

His latest threat towards South Korea was probably hastily formulated last night in a feeble attempt to get the media talking about North Korea again.....it didn't work!!!

Could history show those who read about it in the future that the second war on the Korean Peninsula was the byproduct of a gutless attack on the Boston Marathon?

Did a neurotic, paranoid inferiority complex Dictator stumble into a disastrous war because  he simply lost the attention of the Western Media?

Lets hope not, but in the military, there is an old saying, 'hope is not a plan"!!!

THE IS NOTHING HEROIC IN TERRORISM!!

I was going to spend my time tonight following up on the divisions emerging in the Syrian Rebels, but the events of Boston brought me back to a topic I've spent years contemplating.

Terrorist ........Terrorism:  Who are they..........Really???

"One man's freedom fighter is anther man's Terrorist"!!

It depends!

What acts are you willing to conduct?

A "Freedom Fighter" fights the support mechanisms of the government they oppose.

A " Freedom Fighter" does not target ordinary citizens, even the ones that live under the leadership in conflict and especially eight year old little children watching a Marathon with his or her parents.

Ok, I know... there are those who will always make the outrageous  statement, " well.... the US or it's Allies kill innocent children and citizens everyday ..... so what is the difference"?

If you are someone you know is one of this opinion, let me show you the light and then let's see if you can stand as a just person.

When a group or a person targets individuals that will have absolutely no impact on the government they oppose other than revenge, then that group or person is a Terrorist.

If a Freedom Fighter hides inside a house having a wedding, knowing all along their enemy may strike them regardless, then they are Terrorist.. and gutless one's at that.

What took place today in Boston was not the actions of some "Resistance" or some "following".

What took place today was murder!

Everyday our govenment sends it's men and women in uniform to exicute the missions tasked to them by their leadership.

They do so knowing in the mind of a real human, they and their leadership are the only real targets and they do this without reservation.

They do this to pull the Terrorist away from places like Boston.

When someone or some group goes around them, and attacks children watching a marathon with a weapon as horrendous as a shrapnel bomb, they take themselves into a new category of species.... sub human....and as such.. that is how they should be dealt with!!!

So, tomorrow morning when I wake up and begin to read what the rest of the world has to say about this event, I am sure to find the age old rhetorical, "well.. the US and it's Allies are Terrorist as well"...

Just understand this... If you truly believe there is no difference between a government that targets the enemy and not it's children watching an event and whomever executed this attack today in Boston........try to avoid hiding in someone's wedding party!!

Better yet... drive up to the gates of Ft Bragg...or a Police Precinct in New York ...pull out your gun and do as John Wayne did... "Meet your Maker you Son's of Bit..es"...

It worked for John.... I wouldn't  be as optimistic for you!!!

But then again,, that would be the actions of a "fighter"........ not a gutless.... sub human.. .so called Freedom Fighter!!!

Oh ya... Just in case this was a Home Grown/ Domestic event, and I don't think it was, then nothing changes...

NORTH KOREA AND SYRIA... MORE COMPLICATED THAN WE THINK!

Well, all the talk today seem to center around the idea that North Korea may actually be backing off it's war stance.

As this "Concept" quickly became the "group think", the Talking Heads once again began to philosophize on how North Korea had played the same old cards... threat... appeasement... aid.... broken promises... back to threat!!!

So, is this really what is going on?

Are we about to see North Korea take a step back?

Here is one way to look at this question?

What has changed?

Did North Korea come to the realization their country would be destroyed by the war they scream about?

Would anyone in North Korea, other than the elite who run the country, really know the difference in his or her lifestyle after such a war?

Two weeks ago I made the statement the people of North Korea may actually come out on such a war with more to eat and a new government that just might provide for the nation in Ernest.

So why the North Korean Issue is so much more complicated than the media and the public comprehends?

Once again, lets look at what makes this issue important to not just those fearing war on the Korean Peninsula, but the overall relationship between the rising powerhouse in the World, China and the retreating US / West.

I am still convinced the Chinese government is far more concerned about allowing the US and it's Allies to dictate the fate on a conflict right on China's border!

I am still convinced the Chinese government see the Korean Peninsula issue from the perspective of "regional dominance" and not just the reunification of Korea.

China goals have not changed with the Korean issue.

The Panda Bear with a Dragon's tail hanging out the backend is in a much larger struggle to become the "Regional" powerbroker and as such it sees the Korean issue far differently than most.

Oh; don't think for a minute the US government doesn't comprehend this issue.

The reality is this, both countries understand the Korean peninsula crisis is a "regional" / strategic issue, not just about North Korean nuclear weapons or humanitarian conditions in North Korea.

The Korean Peninsula event is a power struggle plain and simple; between the new kid on the block who is finally willing to start pushing his weight around and the old prize fighter who needs to convince life long supporters they still " have it"!!!

If it was only about North Korea and nuclear weapons, the issue would be solved in one phone call between the two Super Powers; it's not.... and that is the issue.

Ok, so how does this relate to the events in Syria?

Well, what's one way to make an old prize fighter look like he is over the hill?

Yep, give him more than he can handle!!!

Who would formulate such a complex strategy?

The Tsar would!

Putin may not have designed what has taken place in Syria, but like the old Master of the KGB that he is, he has found a way to leverage the crisis.

Can the US handle the politics, economics and public opinion strain of two events on ether side of the world.. with both having few options for success?

My bet is that is just what the Tsar and the Panda Bear / slash Dragon mutant / are assessing.

By the way, did the Chinese just have everything go their way when the US asked China to "intervene" with North Korea?

Did we just prove their point?

Is China the only one that can really make things happen in that part of the world anymore?

If so, what a complex and clever game this round of North Korean  " I will kill you" was!

On the other hand!!!!

Did the US just box in the Dragon mutant by forcing them to deal with North Korea?

What if North Korea spits on the Dragon?

Does the Dragon crush the little nation to show it's military capability?

Does the actions of the Dragon show the other counties in the region just how dangerous the Dragon is becoming and drive them full speed into Western arms?

Yep.... North Korea and Syria are far more complex than most imagine for one simple reason..... it's not about North Korea or Syria!!!

HEZBOLLAH'S REASON FOR FIGHTING IN SYRIA??? SURVIVAL THAT'S WHY!

When I came across the story today,  I was surprised how complex the author made the whole issue.

Why is Hezbollah fighting in Syria?????? Survival..... that's why!!!!

What I did find interesting was the author's explanation as to the two factions inside of Hezbollah, North / Bekaa and the South / Educated shiites.

Once again, it became apparent, at least to me, just how important a "leverage point" this split inside Hezbollah could become.

As I have said time and time again, the "glue" called religion / Shia / Sunni / is not the agent that binds these groups together; not when we are talking "internal" cohesiveness.

It's "bloodline" and who has grown up with whom?

This author's explanation of Bekaa and "Southern" Shiites comes down to the same issue.

In the US, when it comes to emergencies, there is a universal saying; " all 'events' are local'!!

No matter what the federal government believes are responds to, if it happens in the US, the "locals" are the fist to shape what the actions are reactions are going to be.

The same concept holds true in the Middle East and this Bekaa / Southern Shiite issue is just another example.

What this story does a decent job of is posing the question; just how strong is the Hezbollah commitment to actions in Syria?

To the Shiites of the Bekaa region, the Syrian Civil War is " local"... and as such it has a much different since of urgency.

To the "educated" Southern Hezbollah members, Syria is a "Strategic" issue that will impact the long term vision of Hezbollah.

Whenever you have two "visions" inside one organization, you have all the ingredients for trouble!!!!

Can Hezbollah survive the fall of Assad in Syria?

Probably, but will it stop there?

That is the question that keeps Hezbollah leadership up at night.

Will the Sunni movement in the Bekaa region of Lebanon, become a primary target after the fall of Assad?

Absolutely!!!

Will that impact the future of Hezbollah?

Absolutely!!!

Will the Sunni fighters be successful in driving a wedge in between the "factions" inside of Hezbollah?

That is the real question.

Hezbollah's leaders and their Bosses in Tehran will strive to keep Syria a battle zone long after Assad falls and by doing so, they will hopefully keep the Sunni fighters occupied to the point they don't turn their attention on attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Here is the real crisis for Hezbollah..

It's not going to work!!!

As I have said for almost two years now; the war in Syria can easily lead to the downfall of Hezbollah and they now it!!

House divided in Hezbollah.... we shall see...

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/reasons-hezbollah-decision-fight-syria-lebanon.html

"BLADE RUNNER" AND ARAB ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST!!!

In the movie, and it was a good one, Blade Runner,  a race of genetically engineered organic robots who have a implanted "code" that causes them to self-destruct at a certain point in their life cycle.

In many ways, this is very similarly to what is wrong with the Arab Islamic Fundamentalist movement.

Sound a bit far fetched???? Here me out!!!

For years I have watched the age old tradition in the Arab make culture of "who is more important"????

For any of you who have worked in the region more than for just a few months, you know exactly what I am referring to.

The concept of one individual becoming more prominent in a organization at the expense, or the perceived expense, of another drives tribal / family bloodline males in the Middle East to the brink of hysteria.

" I am the leader... not you..."..... " I do not report to you"... .. these concepts  are the obstacles that have kept the supporting level leaders in the Middle East in perpetual conflict for centuries.

Now, I will be the first to admit this "fault" is not unique to the Middle Eastern Arab Males, but that group is who makes up the bulk of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement and that is why I address just them now.

It's the reason Al-Nusra quickly denied the "claims" by some "leader" in Iraq many of the Nusra leaders have never even heard of.

Al-Nusra is not going to get in line behind a worn out movement in Iraq that is only now becoming more of a "player" in Iraqi government.

No group is going to try and usurp al-Zawahiri ,but the second level, "most favored Son" title is hotly contended and Al-Nusra is not going to give it up based upon one public media stunt from Iraq.

Ok, so as I listened to the "experts" talking today about the significance of the announcement from al-Nursra about it's allegiance to al-Qaeda, I was once again stunned how so many so called "experts" missed the real issue... The fatal flaw of the movement... the "Blade Runner Effect"!!!

The number one enemy of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement... the "implanted genetic code".... PRIDE... mixed with EGO!!!   with Testosterone as the bonding glue!

Just as "makers" of the "Replicants" in Blade Runner insured the self-destruction of the experiment... perhaps... just perhaps the good Lord has done the same with Fundamentalist?