SYRIA ... A SECOND FRONT WAR.. DID MIKATI JUST PUT IT INTO PLAY?

    Ok, everyone has been worried for well over a year now over the stability of Lebanon and the impact to an already critically unstable region a Lebanese crisis would have.

Let's get back to the basic simple principles of what is important about Lebanon and then perhaps we can place a value on the actions taken by Mikati.

First and foremost, Mikati and General Rifi are Sunni and don't think for a single second that is not the baseline of what this is all about.

Next; Hezbollah knows a crisis in the Lebanese government right now could easily turn into a shooting crisis for all of Lebanon; just look at the events in Tripoli over the past three days.

Israel understands more than anyone else the danger of a Lebanon in crisis stacked on top of the constant mind game of figuring out how Iran is attempting to "shape" events in Lebanon.

As for Mr Assad in Syria, he has two trains of thought he can travel.

1.   A "distraction" in Lebanon draws the Sunni fighters, at least some, from the Syrian battlefields into Lebanon; especially if they are dealing with the powerful Hezbollah military machine.

The issue here is he must get "permission" from Iran to instigate such and event and that begs the question, does Iran want such a thing at this point in time and if so....why????

If Iran allows Hezbollah to be fully engaged in a conflict inside of Lebanon, is the intent to draw the IDF into the fight perhaps to preempt an attack on Iran's nuclear program?

Short answer; start a "backfire" to prevent a complete Forrest Fire... I've talked about this in the past.

2.  Assad can demand of Hezbollah that Lebanon not turn into a shooting war because he needs every available asset from Hezbollah to prevent the fall of his own government.

Short answer, " The hell with Lebanon... help me stay in power"!!!

Good luck on this one, if he does chose this course... remember... Hezbollah works for Iran not Assad.

So, can the resignation of Mikati and his government really lead to a shooting war in Lebanon between the Sunni and the Shia?

My bet is, if anything it will limit the ability of the Lebanese government to keep a lid on issues along it's border with Syria and the tipping point of yet another conflict in Lebanon is not far away.... it may be here.

Oh by the way............does anyone really think Israel is overly concerned about Shia killing Sunni?

Can Hezbollah deal with the Sunni groups in the cities of Lebanon quickly enough, as they did a few years ago, that a full scale conflict is avoided?

In the cities...........perhaps........along the border.......no!!!

The Sunni combat units working in Syria all a thousand times more capable than they were when Hezbollah made  quick work of them inside Lebanon a few years ago.

How many of these units will turn and fight a Second Front War in Lebanon?

That is the question.

Can this pending crisis in Lebanon be contained to just these two factions fighting each other?

That is up to Iran...

Hezbollah rockets into Israel to force the Lebanese crisis onto Israel... that is the unknown... 

http://www.jpost.com/International/Lebanese-PM-resigns-over-dispute-with-Hezbollah-307463