AGAIN AND AGAIN... THE QUESTION CONTINUES..
WHAT IS IRAN
WILLING TO DO?
Time
and time again, I have talked about and asked the question; what is Iran willing to do to keep Syria in the
Iranian camp?
So,
what has changed?
What
has made the Israelis once again talk about "intervention" in Syria ?
Is
the threat of Hezbollah or other radical groups obtaining WMDs changed, become
worse?
Hard
to tell given the smoke screen that can be placed over such events and the
political reluctance to take action only to find out one was wrong!!
Here
is one aspect of this topic that has changed and continues to change for the
worse.
Again,
the question becomes.... what will Iran do?
As we
struggle to come to grips with Iranian paranoia, we must not forget the threat
of actions by Iran 's
enemies.... namely Israel !
It's
even more important to realize Israel
doesn't base it's actions on the "words / speeches / given in the region.
If Israel took that stance with Iran , it would
have gone to war years ago!
Two
concerns keep Israel
planning for preemptive operations.
One
is the deliberate movement of such weapons to Hezbollah who would most likely
attempt to store them in Lebanon ,
thus creating a third dimension to this crisis.
The
second issue is the loss of such weapons to radical Sunni Rebel units currently
fighting in Syria .
Now,
one of these events is more coordinated than the other and that would lead us
to believe the ability to detect such a deliberate event would be easier... we
would hope!
The
other, non deliberate event, by the way, I'm not totally convinced Assad would
not let the loss of WMDs take place perhaps as one last great act of defiance
and " I told you so", creates such a large amount of speculation and
"fog of war" the Israelis might actually fear it more.
In
both scenarios, the end state for Israel is unacceptable and we all
know it.
So,
the issue becomes, does Israel wait for ether of them to actually take place or
do they find a point in time where they take action to keep ether from
happening?
The
story linked here hints to that course of action, and by the way, the Israelis
have a history of living up to their "hints"!!!!
Ok,
back to Iran .
Does Iran contemplate Israel
may be closer to taking preemptive actions on Syria 's WMD arsenal?
Remember
this weeks warring, " An attack on Syria
would be considered an attack on Iran "?
Let
me make this thought process even harder to deal with.
How many
times have I said Iran might
easily be willing to allow the pending
conflict with Israel
start with an event that is not based upon the Iranian nuclear weapons program?
How
many times in the past two years have I mentioned my theory of Iran forcing the issue outside of Iran ?
An
Israeli attack on Hezbollah storage sites in Lebanon
or in Syria would be just
the ticket for Iran if and
that is a huge if, they are ready for a conflict with Israel .
Now,
the DEBKA story states Iran
is contemplating an event that ends in yet another stalemate like 2006 /2008
and 2012.
My
bet... Don't count on that theory from Israel ...
not with Iran
involved.
Yes..
interesting and dangerous times continue in the region... oh ya.... have you
heard out of North Korea
in the past three or four days????
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=301317
http://www.debka.com/article/22716/Iran-actively-weighs-Syrian-Israeli-clash-Iron-Dome-posted-in-N-Israel
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