SANCTIONS..... WHAT DO THEY REALLY DO?
The
attached articles address two interesting schools of thought.
The
idea that Iran
1. The governments of the EU and the US and Britain
have enough economic clout left to force change on Iran
This theory is more and more being
called into question with the rise of the BRIC and the influence of Turkey
The bottom line becomes, can the
"West" economically change the course of direction of Iran
I think the answer is growing more
and more questionable.
2. Economic hardship in Iran
I have real concerns with this
concept, not from the perspective that hardship will impact the Iranian
leaders, but the thought they will not
strike
back before this could
happen........ that is what bothers me.
Will
they just sit back and let it take place?
What I do agree with in the second
article is the concept of the Arab Spring bringing about disruption and even
change in Iran
Avoiding attacking Iran
Realizing the Iranian leadership
understands the value of being attacked is the issue.
As I have said for months, if Iran see the Arab Spring showing up in Tehran
between
Iranian citizens.
If Iran
More importantly, if the Chinese and
the Russians believe the only way to avoid a regional war is to insure the
economic sanctions do not
jeopardize
the Iran public's confidence, then they will insure
the Iran
receives
the " support" they need.
Who
wants change?
Who
wants cheap oil?
Who
wants to avoid the Arab Spring?
Who
wants to avoid a regional War?
Who
wants to avoid a nuclear, Persian power in the Middle East ?
It
seems all the players want something and very few want the same thing.
20120125
-to-defeat-iran