Col Dan. Analysing global events that may impact global stability.

SANCTIONS..... WHAT DO THEY REALLY DO?

The attached articles address two interesting schools of thought.

The idea that Iran can be forced into compliance with sanctions is based upon two assumptions.

1. The governments of the EU and the US and Britain have enough economic clout left to force change on Iran.

This theory is more and more being called into question with the rise of the BRIC and the influence of Turkey.

The bottom line becomes, can the "West" economically change the course of direction of Iran?

I think the answer is growing more and more questionable.

2. Economic hardship in Iran will lead to Regime change?

I have real concerns with this concept, not from the perspective that hardship will impact the Iranian leaders, but the thought they will not

strike back before this could happen........ that is what bothers me.

Will they just sit back and let it take place?

What I do agree with in the second article is the concept of the Arab Spring bringing about disruption and even change in Iran.

Avoiding attacking Iran, thus unifying the population, is a key concept to this theory.

Realizing the Iranian leadership understands the value of being attacked is the issue.

As I have said for months, if Iran see the Arab Spring showing up in Tehran, it will not wait for the fighting to take place at the street level

between Iranian citizens.

If Iran believes economic sanctions might bring about social disorder, again they will not wait for that day to come.

More importantly, if the Chinese and the Russians believe the only way to avoid a regional war is to insure the economic sanctions do not

jeopardize the Iran public's confidence, then they will insure the Iran

receives the " support" they need.

Who wants change?

Who wants cheap oil?

Who wants to avoid the Arab Spring?

Who wants to avoid a regional War?

Who wants to avoid a nuclear, Persian power in the Middle East?

It seems all the players want something and very few want the same thing.

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Wednesday, January 25, 2012